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> June 1-? MidAtl/NE Stationary Front & Continued Flood Risk
StL weatherjunki...
post May 31 2018, 03:56 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 29 2018, 04:55 PM) *
I mentioned in one of the LR threads that the situation for the first part of June is not one of warm and sunny, and certainly not summerlike. This threat is part and parcel with what I was referencing.

Take a look at the BSR charts and you'll see the threat of system after system within a persistent trough.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-06-June.htm

The GFS actually picked up on this fairly early and has not really let go of that notion. Though not a direct one to one correlation, that BSR signal and the med-LR modeling, leaves the area "exposed" to such a threat as seems to be in the offing.

If one follows the vorticity on the models, from today until ~8th or so, there is no shortage of available energy to move into the long wave trough(s) across the E. Given the saturation existing below Mason Dixon - and select areas N of there, any one of these that stalls is a problem. And, we see that at least the GFS does try to use a piece of energy that undercuts the combined vort of former Alberto and a N latitude shortwave, then combines with both of them and shoves a storm into the "sweet spot" for MidAtl mayhem.

Then, yet another system two days later - bigger at that

Forgive me if I misunderstood, but did you say Nor'Easter mayhem in the MidAtl south of the Mason-Dixon line? I'm still looking for my first snowfall >3", do you think the snow will stick with the strong June sun? laugh.gif Sorry, I couldn't help myself!

No doubt this weekend looks wet, but things should have a chance to dry out early next week. The GEFS shows an extended period of open window weather for my neck of the woods Monday night through Thursday morning. I'm going to see if I can't get my apartment down to 60F again like it was during the winter.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: May 31 2018, 04:00 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Undertakerson
post May 31 2018, 05:56 PM
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When your local AFD covers almost a full week, with just a couple comments, you know the pattern is about to become stuck.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance offer a reasonably similar large
scale pattern evolution over the Mid Atlantic region this period,
trending toward more amplitude/longevity with a developing
upper level low/trough. The initial upper trough should migrate
across the Appalachians Friday night before closing off near
the Delmarva Saturday night. The 500mb pattern takes on a mini
Rex Block configuration before another upstream trough rotates
southeast from the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early
next week. Smaller scale perturbations embedded with the mean
flow begin to complicate the upper pattern by increasing model
spread and forecast uncertainty later next week. That being
said, confidence is better than average in weather conditions
staying "unsettled" with repeated/daily rain chances. It looks
difficult to string together a few dry days.
Temperatures will
trending relatively cooler with the upper level trough influence
holding readings near to below average for early June. The
latest blends favor max rain potential over south-central and
southeastern parts of central PA this weekend. Some moderate to
locally heavy amounts are possible.
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MaineJay
post Jun 1 2018, 06:01 AM
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3km NAM picking up on the effects of the marine layer along the New England coast.

Attached Image


GYX

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Slow moving cold front will gradually drop south into the region
today. Higher clouds ahead of this system already overspreading
most western zones and expect this higher cloud cover to overspread
the remainder of the forecast area through 800 AM. Radar
showing little in the way of shower activity at the moment...but
HRRR brings shower activity currently developing in the lower
Hudson Valley through southern New Hampshire through the morning
hours but not looking for much in the way of QPF in this
preliminary round.

Later today as the front edges in from the northwest...expect
more in the way of convection to develop...mainly in northern
zones...gradually dropping south through the early evening.
Little in the way of forcing along this boundary and with all
the cloud cover...tough to say where and when convective temps
will be reached. Another complicating factor will be ocean
stratus which has moved into much of the forecast area and may
take most of the morning to burn off with higher clouds above.


With weak flow aloft and PWAT`s bordering on 2 inches expect any
convection to produce heavy rainfall and flashy basins in the
north will have to watched closely for rapid accumulations. One
or two thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusty winds as
well
. High temps today will vary around the area depending on
breaks in the overcast but expect warmest readings in the north
where lower to mid 80s will be possible. Remainder of the area
will see highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and any lingering thunderstorms will gradually come to
an end overnight from north to south. Expect a lot low level
moisture to linger into Saturday morning. Looking for areas of
fog overnight in areas of the north that clear and especially in
southern and coastal areas. Lows overnight will range from the
mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.

Clouds will gradually give way to partly to mostly sunny skies
on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs
will generally range through the 70s in the north and upper 70s
to lower 80s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Considerable uncertainty exists in the forecast, especially
PoPs, for early next week as 00z deterministic and ensemble
model information continues to show a significant spread in
potential solutions. One thing is pretty certain in that high
pressure ridging will build overhead from the north Saturday
night and Sunday providing cool conditions. The uncertainty then
comes in on Monday, especially with low pressure expected to
move to our south potentially bringing overrunning rainfall to
the region. However, plenty of spread still exists. For example,
the 00z deterministic ECMWF is now mostly dry on Monday as SFC
low pressure passes too far to the south to be much of a player
here. Even the other solutions have slowed down the arrival of
rain on Monday. For the time being, have blended the
possibilities allowing for mainly chance PoPs across the region
Monday as it could very well end up dry. Much of our forecast
area needs the rain, but systems have been finding ways lately
to keep us dry.
The best chance of precipitation may indeed be
Monday night or Tuesday with upper low pressure expected in some
guidance to bring rain. After that, we`ll have to see how long
this low hangs around - the spread there is also quite wide.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Jun 1 2018, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 31 2018, 11:02 AM) *
Up here today would mark 9 straight days without measurable rainfall.


Wanna switch? I prefer a drought TBH.

Had a downpour this morning that dropped 0.15" in 5 minutes. Not a ton of rain but the amount of days its been misting/drizzling/raining is overwhelming.

In April-May there were 27 days with measurable precip. That's most in 13 yrs. Pretty much every other day on average.

Not to mention the constant clouds..

Leaving this here..

These stationary fronts are nuts


Attached Image

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phillyfan
post Jun 1 2018, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 1 2018, 09:31 AM) *
Wanna switch? I prefer a drought TBH.

Had a downpour this morning that dropped 0.15" in 5 minutes. Not a ton of rain but the amount of days its been misting/drizzling/raining is overwhelming.

In April-May there were 27 days with measurable precip. That's most in 13 yrs. Pretty much every other day on average.

Not to mention the constant clouds..

Leaving this here..

These stationary fronts are nuts


Attached Image

Got a whooping 0.01" last night. That is also my total since the 23rd of May.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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NorEaster07
post Jun 1 2018, 09:34 AM
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 1 2018, 10:50 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 1 2018, 10:34 AM) *

Attached Image

Pack it up and move to Seattle
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yamvmax
post Jun 1 2018, 11:49 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 1 2018, 08:31 AM) *
Wanna switch? I prefer a drought TBH.

Had a downpour this morning that dropped 0.15" in 5 minutes. Not a ton of rain but the amount of days its been misting/drizzling/raining is overwhelming.

In April-May there were 27 days with measurable precip. That's most in 13 yrs. Pretty much every other day on average.

Not to mention the constant clouds..

Leaving this here..

These stationary fronts are nuts


Attached Image

I agree! The weather on the coast here has been miserable for months now. I need another vacation to get away from this *bleep*.
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LUCC
post Jun 1 2018, 12:04 PM
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Difference on 12k NAM, reminds me of what happened all winter and this past weekend, days of rain shown several days out and leading up to event models back off:
6z:




12z:




This post has been edited by LUCC: Jun 1 2018, 12:16 PM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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telejunkie
post Jun 1 2018, 02:09 PM
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Today is our first very muggy and warm day of the year...as if on cue for June. Will be quite the shock next week to have highs in the mid 50s and lows getting down almost to the 30s.

Currently 84F outside with a DP at a sultry 70F....


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jun 1 2018, 08:56 PM
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A cell literally just blossomed right over my head. Very torrential downpour but surprising not much if any T&L.


--------------------
-James
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jun 1 2018, 09:08 PM
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The cell has filled in a bit and now more in the way of some T&L. Over 0.30” of rain on the night so far.


--------------------
-James
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phillyfan
post Jun 1 2018, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Jun 1 2018, 09:56 PM) *
A cell literally just blossomed right over my head. Very torrential downpour but surprising not much if any T&L.

Lancaster always a magnet for a storm. I'm still waiting for some rain to come up here after all the humidity we've had yet zero rainfall.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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rtcemc
post Jun 1 2018, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jun 1 2018, 01:04 PM) *
Difference on 12k NAM, reminds me of what happened all winter and this past weekend, days of rain shown several days out and leading up to event models back off:
6z:




12z:



Yea agree LUCC, comically bad forecasts without all the winter whining. 0 for 3 here again the last 3 days, and last weekend was a disgraceful weather forecasting fail also. Thankfully I can golf on short notice, because despite the gloom and doom forecasts, Wednesday was a perfect golf day, yesterday a little grayer but still a great golf day, and uh today. Today was a sunbaked steam bath. Not a cloud in the sky all afternoon, and wished I was at my pool vs. golf. Pretty sure tomorrow and Sunday are going to wind up much drier than originally forecast. Imagine if winter laugh.gif I do await my summer Bermuda high setting up soon though, cuz we lost a lost of spring, pool time, and golf days. When that switch flips though, it can be sudden and drastic, and doth not matter what preceded it. Bring it on I say. Haven't even done a beach trip yet.
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phillyfan
post Jun 1 2018, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Jun 1 2018, 10:08 PM) *
The cell has filled in a bit and now more in the way of some T&L. Over 0.30” of rain on the night so far.

Flash Flood Watch has gone up for Lancaster, York, and Adams counties til 8am.

QUOTE
Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
1040 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018


PAZ064>066-021045-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FF.A.0004.180602T0240Z-180602T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1040 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania,
including the following areas, Adams, Lancaster, and York.

* Until 8 AM EDT Saturday

* Heavy rain has begun over much of the watch area and more heavy
rain is likely before 2 or 3 AM EDT. Flash flooding is possible
in the next few hours. The threat of heavy rain should end
overnight.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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stxprowl
post Jun 1 2018, 10:02 PM
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Those are some slow movers in the Lancaster area. https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...l=Cherry%20Hill
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phillyfan
post Jun 1 2018, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jun 1 2018, 11:02 PM) *
Those are some slow movers in the Lancaster area. https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...l=Cherry%20Hill

I wish they would move north, doubt that'll happen...


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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rtcemc
post Jun 1 2018, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jun 1 2018, 11:02 PM) *
Those are some slow movers in the Lancaster area. https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...l=Cherry%20Hill

Wondering stx if a little impetus coming in from behind to lift some of the moisture. Planted more grass seed in large redo of property in lieu of 5 days of rain. So had to hose it down for 2nd time in last 3 days tonight. Glad I did because the moisture has been drying out on its trek north and east the last few days. The area you mentioned is getting buried.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...llite-wv?play=1
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phillyfan
post Jun 1 2018, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jun 1 2018, 11:22 PM) *
Wondering stx if a little impetus coming in from behind to lift some of the moisture. Planted more grass seed in large redo of property in lieu of 5 days of rain. So had to hose it down for 2nd time in last 3 days tonight. Glad I did because the moisture has been drying out on its trek north and east the last few days. The area you mentioned is getting buried.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...llite-wv?play=1

Flash Flood Warning down at Lancaster now:

QUOTE
Flash Flood Warning
PAC071-020630-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FF.W.0003.180602T0338Z-180602T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 230 AM EDT.

* At 1136 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience the most significant flooding include...
Millersville, Willow Street and Smithville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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stxprowl
post Jun 1 2018, 10:59 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jun 1 2018, 11:22 PM) *
Wondering stx if a little impetus coming in from behind to lift some of the moisture. Planted more grass seed in large redo of property in lieu of 5 days of rain. So had to hose it down for 2nd time in last 3 days tonight. Glad I did because the moisture has been drying out on its trek north and east the last few days. The area you mentioned is getting buried.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...llite-wv?play=1

You got me there, I’m not sure.
Looks like we have our first 4” dot. ohmy.gif
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