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> May 31- June 2 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level:Day 1 Slight, Day 2 Enhanced
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 07:06 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 1 2018, 06:43 PM) *
Might finally be time



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 1 2018, 06:58 PM) *
Watching the cells east and southeast of radar site. They have a more east component in their movement and seem more discrete for now.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 1 2018, 07:32 PM) *
Took it a minute but finally severe warned

Nope. Moderate risk struggling still. Sometimes I'm glad we don't have the struggles that the Plains experiences like days like today.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 1 2018, 07:07 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 1 2018, 07:10 PM
Post #22




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Storm missing me just east but hearing good thunder out of it.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 1 2018, 07:16 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 1 2018, 08:10 PM) *
Storm missing me just east but hearing good thunder out of it.

Getting scraped by it... nothing much other than some rain and a couple strikes.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 07:50 PM
Post #24




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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A couple discrete cells popping south of the severe warned stuff up north. The northern of the 2 cells already has a mesocyclone.

Moderate risk withheld in the evening update.

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2018

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

..SUMMARY

A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

..DAKOTAS

NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND INTO MORE RECENTLY INTO
CENTRAL SD, NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LINE, EMBEDDED AREAS OF
ROTATION AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THE LATEST VWP OUT OF BIS SHOWS 0-3 SRH
AROUND 400 M2/S2. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH VERY FAR
EAST AS THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN ND REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY, AND, A
BATCH OF RAIN AND STORMS PRECEDES THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.

..CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI

A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE FROM THE SD/NE BORDER INTO
CENTRAL NE, WITHIN AN AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY. THESE CELLS
CONTINUE TO MERGE, INDICATING AN EVENTUAL COLD POOL MAY BE PRODUCED.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WIND SHIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST NE, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL INTO THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN UPSCALE
GROWTH OF THESE STORMS, AND DAMAGING WINDS, SOME SIGNIFICANT, WILL
BE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY IN THE CYCLE
WHILE STORMS ARE CELLULAR. LAST, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS WELL GIVEN EXTREME UPDRAFTS AND INCREASING SRH THIS EVENING.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 1 2018, 08:24 PM
Post #25




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Broken Bow storm just went warned.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 08:33 PM
Post #26




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Quickly went linear. Gonna be interesting to see what happens here. Got good low-level SRH, extreme instability, and decent speed shear.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 1 2018, 09:01 PM
Post #27




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From: Dayton,OH
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Tornado warning south of Burwell NE now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 09:10 PM
Post #28




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No doubt an embedded supercell. Looks like pretty strong rotation about to hit Ord, but hard to tell since the beam has to slice through a bunch of heavy rain and probably hail.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 1 2018, 09:11 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 09:37 PM
Post #29




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 1 2018, 10:10 PM) *
No doubt an embedded supercell. Looks like pretty strong rotation about to hit Ord, but hard to tell since the beam has to slice through a bunch of heavy rain and probably hail.

I count at least 3 embedded supercells now in that squall. Again, hard to tell what kind of tornadic rotation is going on.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 09:58 PM
Post #30




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Right before they put a warning on it... justifiably so
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 10:02 PM
Post #31




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Tornado on the ground

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 1 2018, 10:03 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 10:05 PM
Post #32




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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I count 4 possible tornadoes, 2 of which could be strong
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 10:09 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,674
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Unfortunately looks like the northern outskirts of Madison is getting hit with a possible tornado. Google Earth does show that there are neighborhoods in its immediate path.

Edit: next scan shows the rotation broadened and no debris signature at 5000 feet.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 1 2018, 10:11 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 1 2018, 10:16 PM
Post #34




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





New warning for mostly rural land. Lucky the tornadic storms aren't just a little bit more south because that's a lot of towns in a row.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 2 2018, 12:05 AM
Post #35




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Day 1 slight risk but possible upgrade to enhanced. Would make this a full week of enhanced risks.



QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2018

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES...

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA
TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

..SYNOPSIS

A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS, WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS MO
AND INTO SOUTHERN OK AT 18Z, PROGRESSING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE, WITH NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS FROM MO TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING
THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM COASTAL AL TO SC, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A MOIST,
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND OR
HAIL. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE TX BIG
BEND, BUT THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH
LESS STORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.

..THE MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS REGION

AN MCS IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH OUTFLOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
MO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY, BUT THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A RELATIVELY
GREATER THREAT AREA FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO AR, AND POSSIBLY FAR
EASTERN OK, WHERE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AS
THE OUTFLOW SLOWS. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, AND THESE WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MIDLEVELS, FAVORING SOUTHWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS
OF CELLS OR A POSSIBLE REJUVENATION OF AN MCS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. PARTS OF MO AND AR MAY BE
UPGRADED TO AN ENHANCED RISK AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 2 2018, 12:09 AM
Post #36




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Very well defined gust front with the MCS now. You can easily see how the gust front is killing the warm/moist air supply, effectively cutting off the tornado threat except for maybe some landspounts along the gust front.

Can also see the LLJ (light blues). Showing 60 MPH winds around 1700 feet above ground.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 2 2018, 12:12 AM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Middle of Nowher...
post Jun 2 2018, 09:14 PM
Post #37




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Just a couple from my neck of the woods last evening. Strongest gust from a station a mile from my house was 74.

First one is from a friend 4 miles west of me, second and third are 3 miles south.

https://twitter.com/LanceCasual/status/1002899211682242560
https://twitter.com/mamamorgan66/status/1002725433425743873
https://twitter.com/mamamorgan66/status/1002917300075487232

Yes, we could use some rain. Got a whopping .06" from this "storm", 1.06" since April 1.

This post has been edited by Middle of Nowhere Guy: Jun 2 2018, 09:16 PM
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