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> June 5-12 NW/Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
joseph507123
post Jun 2 2018, 09:50 PM
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Severe weather looking possible middle of this upcoming week for the midwest.

SPC:
QUOTE
The primary focus for the extended period will be centered on
shortwave troughs cresting the top of an amplifying ridge over the
Plains states. As these perturbations cross the northern Plains and
upper Midwest, they will provide some focus for strong/severe
convective development, with the most likely period being
D4/Tue-D5/Wed, primarily from North Dakota to the upper Mississippi
Valley. A relatively narrow reservoir of adequate
moisture/instability will likely have returned to the region ahead
of these systems, offering some potential for damaging winds and
large hail. Despite this potential, no highlights are introduced,
owing to deterministic/ensemble guidance exhibiting considerable
uncertainty with regards to the amplitude/timing of individual
impulses cresting the ridge. In turn, the most likely zone for
severe convection remains too nebulous/broad at present.


Models look decent



Dr. Greg Forbes:
Attached Image

Attached Image


This post has been edited by joseph507123: Jun 11 2018, 02:46 PM


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 2 2018, 10:39 PM
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Definitely an MCS pattern, looking forward to what it brings but not the low predictability. I think Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are gonna cash in at least once. I'm worried Ohio will be too far east... especially the east half. But far western Ohio might get something.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 2 2018, 10:42 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 3 2018, 09:17 PM
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Sounding promising for some interesting weather going forward

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe weather looks to steadily increase during
the second half of the week, as boundary-layer moisture gradually
spreads north across the Plains and mid/upper Mississippi Valley,
and greater buoyancy materializes. On D4/Wednesday, a shortwave
trough will advance across the upper Midwest, potentially focusing
some threat for severe weather across parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin as a cold front moves southeast over the region. However,
uncertainty exists regarding the influence of upstream convection
from the prior night, the impacts of potential capping through the
day, and the overall amplitude/timing of the approaching wave.
Therefore, specifics regarding the severe potential remain too
nebulous for probabilities at this time. Nonetheless, severe
probabilities will likely be needed in later outlooks across parts
of the upper Midwest.

As the front continues to sag south/southeast and stalls from the
central/northern High Plains to the Ohio Valley through the end of
the week, it will establish a corridor for bouts of severe weather
along the northern/northeastern periphery of the mid-level ridge.
Low-amplitude impulses traversing this corridor through the weekend
will serve to focus the severe weather potential. However,
ensemble/deterministic guidance depict considerable spread with the
timing of these impulses, such that no probabilities are introduced
at this time.


The setup of the stationary front looks pretty good


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 3 2018, 09:18 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ColoradoChinook
post Jun 3 2018, 11:32 PM
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Regarding Tuesday, now at 48 hrs away, scattered severe storms still look possible in North Dakota and vicinity. There will be 2000 - 4000 J/kg of CAPE in central ND near the low pressure with some shear values possibly up to 50 kt.
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joseph507123
post Jun 3 2018, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 3 2018, 09:17 PM) *
Sounding promising for some interesting weather going forward

MPX AFD is saying that basically. Hopefully the Cap won't be a problem.
QUOTE
The next threat arrives possibly later Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The GFS continues to be fastest with developing a
convective complex over North Dakota and driving it east/southeast
into northwest and central MN late Tuesday night. The ECMWF
remains slowest with the trough influence/forcing. Trimmed the
eastern flank a tad. The mid level cap is strong on the ECWMF but
remains weak off to the northwest. Its possible any complex could
ride right into the cwa and affect Wednesday severe threat as
well. The 00z CIPS severe weather analog probability was
indicating a solid 30 percent severe probability over the central
cwa for Wednesday/Wednesday night. This looks good at the moment,
with very high CAPE values progged and mid level lapse rates 8.5-9
C/km. Still have only moderate PoPs for this but may have to
increase to likely in later forecasts.
If we dont have much of
Tuesday night system, we could be too cool in temperatures for
Wednesday. We could easily see 90s to the south and east of the
incoming front if clouds and and remnant complex is negligible.



--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 3 2018, 11:44 PM
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Strange storm motions in Texas today. There's a westward moving MCS in SE TX, and an eastward moving one in SW TX. There were even some westward/northward moving supercells ahead of the SW TX MCS.



The wind barbs in this image show the storms speed and direction. I'd say the relatively weak but building ridge is at least partially behind this.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 3 2018, 11:58 PM
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QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 4 2018, 12:32 AM) *
Regarding Tuesday, now at 48 hrs away, scattered severe storms still look possible in North Dakota and vicinity. There will be 2000 - 4000 J/kg of CAPE in central ND near the low pressure with some shear values possibly up to 50 kt.

Best tornado potential is along the warm front in eastern ND, but you don't usually expect storms to pop there. More realistically, they'll pop with that occluded/"cold" front thing north of the low or along the dryline where the soundings are quite a bit drier and more capped. With that said, should be some nice supercells.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 3 2018, 11:59 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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joseph507123
post Jun 4 2018, 01:31 AM
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Now a slight risk hatched for Tuesday with tornadoes possible. Wonder what they'll put out for Wednesday.
Attached Image


QUOTE
...Northern Plains...
Through the period, a rather stout mid-level ridge will remain
positioned from the Desert Southwest northeastward to western
Ontario. Along its northwestern/northern fringe, a 60-70kt
southwesterly 500mb jet max will translate northeast from the
northern Rockies to North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front will push southeast across North
Dakota and western South Dakota through the day. Surface convergence
near the front, along with broad mid-level ascent overspreading the
region, should yield isolated to widely scattered convection within
a plume of at least mid 60s dew points over North Dakota. Aided by
moderate/strong mixed-layer buoyancy, several cells should become
supercellular/severe, especially with 40-50 kt of effective shear
for updraft organization. In turn, pockets of large hail (a few of
which could be 2+" in diameter) and damaging winds will be possible
during the afternoon and evening.

Given a strengthening low-level jet by late evening, increasing
shear may support a tornado threat, especially as boundary-layer RH
increases. Still, relatively dry low levels earlier in the afternoon
and evening may force an outflow-dominant/bowing evolution in HP
supercells prior to surface conditions becoming more favorable for
tornadoes. Therefore, this threat remains somewhat uncertain.

Through the overnight, amplifying warm advection associated with the
low-level jet should bring about upscale growth into a convective
system that is expected to drop southeast, with an attendant threat
of damaging winds.


This post has been edited by joseph507123: Jun 4 2018, 01:32 AM


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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joseph507123
post Jun 4 2018, 02:51 AM
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Slight risk day 3 for me.

Attached Image


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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joseph507123
post Jun 4 2018, 12:48 PM
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Enhanced now for tomorrow.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Blocking synoptic pattern will persist through Tuesday with upper
ridge remaining the prominent feature over much of the Plains. At
least a couple of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will crest the
upper ridge along the ND international border including one early
in the period and another impulse arriving Tuesday night. Farther
south, a southern stream shortwave trough will advance slowly
southeast through the lower MS Valley region during the day. At the
surface a cold front will move southeast through the northern Plains
in association with initial shortwave trough. By mid-day this front
should extend from north central ND southwest into northeast WY. A
warm front will extend from IA northwest into eastern ND. Lee
trough/dryline will extend south through the high plains. Farther
east a convectively reinforced front will extend from LA northwest
through north central and northwest TX.

...Northern Plains region...

While moisture return in models appears a bit overdone, partially
modified air with low-level dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s
will advect northward through the northern Plains pre-frontal warm
sector beneath steep lapse rate resulting in moderate instability
with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Some elevated
storms may be ongoing during the morning north of warm front and in
association with lead shortwave trough. In wake of the early
impulse, shortwave ridging and a capping inversion associated with a
warm EML should limit thunderstorm development much of the day.
However, storms should develop by late afternoon or early evening,
initially within evolving upslope regime of northeast WY and
southeast MT as well as farther east along cold front in association
with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. A mid-level jet
attending the next upstream shortwave trough will contribute to
sufficient vertical shear for supercells with initial development,
but an upscale growth into an MCS will likely occur overnight. Large
hail and damaging wind will be the main threats given relatively
high LCLS, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 4 2018, 01:45 PM
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Yeah, not loving this forecast. It's nice right now, but upper 40s for the next three nights is just annoying at this point, even if it that's not all that abnormal for the area. Should be the last time until September. Looks like no severe until at least next week.

On the off chance something interesting does head this way over the weekend, CLE:

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast period remains in some question with
differences in the extended guidance in the next system approaching
the region. A low pressure system is on track to begin impacting the
area late Thursday into Friday; however, the timing and exact path
of this system remains uncertain. The GFS and the Canadian have a
warm front of sorts preceding the low and bringing rain into the
area before the low itself moves nearby for late Saturday into
Sunday. The European solution has a much drier solution with the low
lifting well north of the area. Unsure which model solution to
believe that this point, but given that the GFS has had this system
for a couple cycles impacting the area... will have a slight chance
to chance pop early and then have a chance pop for Saturday into the
first half of Sunday before drying out the area for Sunday night and
beyond. Will continue to leave out any likely wording for now until
there is some better timing and tracking of the low. Kept
temperatures seasonable, perhaps just a tad cooler than a blend of
the extended guidance since midweek will be fairly below normal.
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ColoradoChinook
post Jun 4 2018, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Jun 4 2018, 11:48 AM) *
Enhanced now for tomorrow.


The convection-allowing models are showing storms getting going strongly at 04z. This is quite late, it's 11:00PM central. Chances for late-night tornadoes tend to be lower. Hail and wind reports could be common.
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idecline
post Jun 4 2018, 07:33 PM
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...if it all pans out...of course storms could be to the West and South of my estimations...(as usual)... rolleyes.gif
Attached Image


...either way...it seems some severe weather will be taking place in the Northern Plains tomorrow...esp. late at night...


--------------------

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- Max Planck

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Snow____
post Jun 5 2018, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jun 4 2018, 02:45 PM) *
Yeah, not loving this forecast. It's nice right now, but upper 40s for the next three nights is just annoying at this point, even if it that's not all that abnormal for the area. Should be the last time until September. Looks like no severe until at least next week.

On the off chance something interesting does head this way over the weekend, CLE:

The highs in 70s yesterday and lows in 50s felt wonderful compared to what we had for the last couple weeks with DPs in the upper 60s to mid 70s highs hovering 90.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2018, 10:36 AM
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Enhanced area completely dropped as of the 9am update. Hatched area dropped as well.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2018, 04:12 PM
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Getting some thunder here now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 4 2018, 12:58 AM) *
Best tornado potential is along the warm front in eastern ND, but you don't usually expect storms to pop there. More realistically, they'll pop with that occluded/"cold" front thing north of the low or along the dryline where the soundings are quite a bit drier and more capped. With that said, should be some nice supercells.


Yeah tornadoes don't seem like much of a threat tonight. Cloud base is over a mile above ground


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 08:57 PM
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Just as I say that. Now let's see if it can touch down.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2018, 09:08 PM
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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Appears Faith SD has to severe cells on a collision course right over the city. The tornado warned storm to the NW headed SE and a severe thunderstorm warned cell to the SW headed NE.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 09:10 PM
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Overwhelming RFD, enhanced by very dry atmosphere, causing the hook to bow out. Not a tornado night.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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