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> June 5-12 NW/Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 8 2018, 12:37 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 8 2018, 12:41 AM) *
Tomorrow evening looks nice and stormy around here on the 3K NAM/HRRR.

3K NAM has a very nice looking bow echo Saturday night/Sunday morning in NW IL.

[attachment=356491:nam3km_m..._ncus_55.png]

That's a beauty

Tomorrow has some potential. HRRR is trying to resolve what happens from soon-to-form convection possibly turned MCV. Weak shear tomorrow, but on this run the remnant MCV may enhance winds aloft in central IN, possibly encouraging some more organized activity. Definitely a marginal risk worthy day.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 8 2018, 01:07 AM
Post #42




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Another massive marginal risk for day 2. Over half of the Midwest is in it. Higher probabilities have been reserved for later when things play out.



QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across the northern
Rockies, while pockets of other strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible from a portion of the central and northern Plains through
the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic states.

...Synopsis...

Strong upper trough will advance through the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies Saturday with a downstream ridge across the Plains
and a low-amplitude trough farther east over the Northeast States.
By 12Z Saturday, a quasi-stationary front will extend from the Mid
Atlantic through the OH Valley into the northern High Plains of MT
where it will transition to a warm front. Cold front will accompany
the upper trough through the northern Rockies, while dryline will
persist across the central and southern Plains.

...Northern Rockies...

Upper 40s to mid 50s F boundary-layer dewpoints should reside in
pre-frontal warm sector across central MT east of higher terrain
beneath 7.5-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Diabatic heating should
boost MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. Deeper forcing for ascent attending
the shortwave trough and the accompanying frontal zone as well as
orographic forcing should contribute to the development of storms
over the northern Rockies during the afternoon. Strengthening winds
aloft attending the shortwave trough will result in sufficient
(35-45 kt) effective bulk shear for supercells with large hail and
damaging wind the main threats through mid evening.

...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley...

A moist warm sector with upper 60s F dewpoints will reside across
this region in vicinity of a quasi-stationary front, and potential
will exist for the atmosphere to become moderately unstable.
However, remnant clouds, outflow boundaries and areas of ongoing
convection may exist across portions of these regions lowering
confidence in where best destabilization will be. While it does
appear likely some severe multicell storms will develop during the
day, overall severe threat for these areas will depend on location
of MCVs and outflow boundaries which remains uncertain at this time.
Therefore, will maintain marginal risk for this update and defer any
upgrades to later outlooks when locations of mesoscale focusing
mechanisms should become more clear.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 8 2018, 01:08 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jun 8 2018, 10:36 AM
Post #43




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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Scattered mess today and tomorrow, I'll take any thunderstorms we can snatch.
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nkovatch85
post Jun 8 2018, 12:32 PM
Post #44




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From: Mishawaka, IN
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Here in Northern Indiana nothing severe but some pretty wicked cg with the storms. Nice to hear those loud cracks of thunder.


--------------------
I wish every day was either a PDS Tornado Watch or a Blizzard Warning...or both.
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 12:52 PM
Post #45




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Cell popped up just west of me and trying to develop more east.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 8 2018, 04:30 PM
Post #46




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Storms to my north and south and nothing but OFBs in the middle(Dayton) laugh.gif
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 04:34 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 8 2018, 05:30 PM) *
Storms to my north and south and nothing but OFBs in the middle(Dayton) laugh.gif

Yeah waiting to see if something blows up on that OFB in W Greene/E Montgomery counties.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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MichelleOH
post Jun 8 2018, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 8 2018, 05:34 PM) *
Yeah waiting to see if something blows up on that OFB in W Greene/E Montgomery counties.


The one that moved east to west? So odd.
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 05:13 PM
Post #49




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Cell developing on my doorstep. Starting to rain here.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 8 2018, 05:13 PM
Post #50




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Storms literally exploding around. I'm in the middle of four cells with defined shelf clouds barreling towards MBY. This will be fun.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jun 8 2018, 05:15 PM
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 05:17 PM
Post #51




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Warning issued just north of me. Raining decent put probably will be pouring soon.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 05:28 PM
Post #52




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 8 2018, 06:17 PM) *
Warning issued just north of me. Raining decent put probably will be pouring soon.

And its now pouring with pretty good thunder and lightning.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 05:33 PM
Post #53




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Very torrential rain here now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 05:35 PM
Post #54




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Looking at radar, the cell over my head seems to be stationary.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Snow____
post Jun 8 2018, 05:35 PM
Post #55




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Everything is staying North 😒


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 8 2018, 06:56 PM
Post #56




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After having to stand out in the rain for 2 hours at work, I can confirm that was some heavy, cold rain. Did the 30 minute drive home with the heat on.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 07:49 PM
Post #57




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Maybe one more small round of rain/storms moving in rom E IN if it holds together.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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bunnyohare1
post Jun 8 2018, 07:50 PM
Post #58




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QUOTE(nkovatch85 @ Jun 8 2018, 01:32 PM) *
Here in Northern Indiana nothing severe but some pretty wicked cg with the storms. Nice to hear those loud cracks of thunder.



What really bugs me is so many of the worst storms go along and south of US 30 or along the Ind. Mich border. It's like there is something here that breaks them up long enough to reform once they get east of us.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 8 2018, 08:59 PM
Post #59




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 8 2018, 01:37 AM) *
That's a beauty

Tomorrow has some potential. HRRR is trying to resolve what happens from soon-to-form convection possibly turned MCV. Weak shear tomorrow, but on this run the remnant MCV may enhance winds aloft in central IN, possibly encouraging some more organized activity. Definitely a marginal risk worthy day.



Bit of more of the same tomorrow. The storms that pop near Davenport turn into an MCS/MCV which causes redevelopment later. Just like today, not much speed shear but unlike today, there's more organized directional shear. Ultimately I don't think this means much without having much speed shear. It would make updrafts spin a bit, but without speed shear, the updraft would quickly get rained out.






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 8 2018, 09:05 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 8 2018, 09:16 PM
Post #60




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Cell popped up right over Cincy. Watching the Reds game and its pouring big time there.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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