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> Dec. 21-23 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 days out) Forecast
JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 14 2017, 03:39 PM
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I'm not touching the potential Christmas system yet, but this preceding one has been showing up consistently on all 3 major models & we are now within a week, so here goes...

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Dec 19 2017, 02:49 PM
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OSUWx2
post Dec 14 2017, 03:51 PM
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Iím fine with this being a GLC and hoping it lays the path for an OV hit for the next storm.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 15 2017, 11:27 AM
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12z GFS


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JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 15 2017, 02:29 PM
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12z Euro:


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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 16 2017, 02:17 AM
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ECM
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ValpoSnow
post Dec 18 2017, 10:08 PM
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Since Buckeye's last post, models trended much further north. However, in the past 24-36 hours, the trend has been south (though not yet to the 0z 12/16 image above).

12z NAM low position is probably 75 miles north of the 0z NAM position at Hr 84 and 72 respectively.
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grace
post Dec 18 2017, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Dec 18 2017, 09:08 PM) *
Since Buckeye's last post, models trended much further north. However, in the past 24-36 hours, the trend has been south (though not yet to the 0z 12/16 image above).

12z NAM low position is probably 75 miles north of the 0z NAM position at Hr 84 and 72 respectively.



12z UKMET was further south. SLP tracks south of Chicago

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php
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pros3lyte
post Dec 19 2017, 08:00 AM
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After yesterday and today's warm temps/drizzle, our 6-8 inch snowpack is looking pretty wimpy. If this storm dumps rain on the thumb I think our chances of a White Christmas might be dashed. sad.gif


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ValpoSnow
post Dec 19 2017, 08:06 AM
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QUOTE(pros3lyte @ Dec 19 2017, 07:00 AM) *
After yesterday and today's warm temps/drizzle, our 6-8 inch snowpack is looking pretty wimpy. If this storm dumps rain on the thumb I think our chances of a White Christmas might be dashed. sad.gif


At least you had a snowpack!

Last frame of the 6z 3K NAM looks interesting:


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pros3lyte
post Dec 19 2017, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE
The tail of the trough drifting across the 4 corners will then
promote lee cyclogenesis over the southern plains with this low then
lifting northeast clipping lower MI Friday night into Saturday.
Placement of the low is crucial in how the weekend weather,
specifically ptypes, play out. A track over SE MI will likely result
in a wintry mix or snow, changing to all rain for a period and then
back to a mix before tapering off Saturday afternoon. A solution
further south and east will present a longer duration of mixed or
frozen ptypes.
Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to bounce around with
the track and we`re just starting to get some mid range models to
touch the event so we`ll just continue to highlight potential for
mixed ptypes at this point.

Notable changes in the pattern in the wake of this system as trough
becomes reinforced with yet another very cold arctic airmass. Models
have been on this solution for several days now which adds
confidence. Just how cold will yet to be seen, but both the GFS and
ECMWF are showing 850mb cold pool below -30C dropping over the
Midwest late Monday before moderating slightly as it crosses the
lakes to lower MI. Current forecast is calling for highs in the
teens and lows in the single digits for the start of next week.


Sounds like a slopfest!

Nothing like warming up just in time to make Christmas a drag -- only to stick it to us with brutal cold temps immediately afterwards. Maybe the LE will crank up and we'll catch some stray snow showers floating across the state.


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ValpoSnow
post Dec 19 2017, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(pros3lyte @ Dec 19 2017, 07:35 AM) *
Sounds like a slopfest!

Nothing like warming up just in time to make Christmas a drag -- only to stick it to us with brutal cold temps immediately afterwards. Maybe the LE will crank up and we'll catch some stray snow showers floating across the state.


Seems to be a consensus growing that the low will be south of Chicago. Sadly, so far, it doesn't seem to have changed our forecast much.
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ValpoSnow
post Dec 19 2017, 08:58 AM
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From stormhamster.com


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WeatherMonger
post Dec 19 2017, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
551 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

Mild/dry weather will be on tap for both Wednesday and
Thursday...with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s on
Wednesday rising into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees by
Thursday. Slow-moving storm system is still slated to arrive by
the end of the week, with latest models coming into good agreement
with its timing and associated QPF. Low pressure will track
through central Illinois late Thursday night into Friday morning,
bringing scattered light rain showers. Once the low lifts into the
Great Lakes, it will drag a trailing cold front through the region
during the day Friday. A short-wave trough will interact with the
departing front to produce a swath of widespread precip Friday
afternoon and night: however, there are still some discrepancies
among the models as to how far into the colder airmass precip will
extend. The GFS/ECMWF tend to pull the precip out of Illinois
faster Friday night, while the GEM is quite a bit slower. At this
point, think rain will linger across the eastern half of the CWA
through Friday evening before gradually mixing with and changing
to light snow overnight. Given the warm/wet ground and air
temperatures only dropping a few degrees below freezing by 12z
Sat, am expecting little if any snow accumulation Friday night.

The front and any lingering precip will depart Saturday morning as
a significantly colder airmass arrives from the northwest.
Temperatures will fall into the 30s on Saturday...then into the
upper 20s and lower 30s by Sunday. With all models showing an
upper trough digging into the region, confidence is growing that
snow flurries will develop across all of central/southeast
Illinois Sunday into Monday. There will likely be a band or two of
enhanced lift that could potentially bring a very light
accumulation of snow during that time frame as well: however, it
is still too early to predict exactly where that might occur.
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ValpoSnow
post Dec 19 2017, 09:42 AM
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Beginning to look pathetic:


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TonyT
post Dec 19 2017, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Dec 19 2017, 08:42 AM) *
Beginning to look pathetic:

Unfortunately for the lower lakes nothing will come from this wave and it looks pretty bleak around these parts for the next 7+ days.
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ValpoSnow
post Dec 19 2017, 10:43 AM
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Could be a light freezing rain event with this "storm"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2017, 11:43 AM
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Trend or bogus?
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2017, 12:20 PM
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.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2017, 12:30 PM
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looks like north of I-80 does well on the UK
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2017, 12:31 PM
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and the ever entertaining CMC
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