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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 11:51 AM


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QUOTE
CLIMATE...
Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at
Harrisburg and Williamsport.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249731 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:44 PM


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Amplified would be an understatement - but does this translate to volatile, having a hint of double Omega flow?

Attached Image


QUOTE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS NOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UTILIZED 20 PERCENT OF
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST BLEND IN COMBINATION WITH THESE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS. GRADUALLY INCORPORATED THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS FROM DAY 5/MONDAY ONWARD GIVEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AROUND AVERAGE BUT MUCH OF THIS
FOCUSES ON THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249704 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 06:33 PM


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Attached Image


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Their record is 50% with such "long shots" - analog based forecasting (see the notation at the bottom right of each panel for an overview of why they make their call)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/longshots.html

StL might agree with this outlook. smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249656 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 03:01 PM


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I'll bet many in here would love this look in another 60+ days or so

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249648 · Replies: · Views: 1,439

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 05:56 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 17 2017, 06:41 AM) *
I do believe this has organic forecasting support, but I'm too lazy this morning to dig it up. smile.gif

I believe I saw JD mentioning BSR support, but that may have been for the second system.

The second system seems to have the support of the Typhoon Rule, as Lan recurves ~22d. With a 7-10d lag thereafter, puts us near the Halloween/All Saint's Day time period.

There is, currently, a robust gale, taking a similar path to a system that would come from the TR path, so that lends some credence to the notion of a quick hitter trough in the East for this threads time period.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249635 · Replies: · Views: 1,439

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 04:30 AM


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I considered opening a thread for these dates - while I was posting in the LR Autumn thread. Nice job starting this one off.

We just might have two to get through before the EOTM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249632 · Replies: · Views: 1,439

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 03:08 PM


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Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough


First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.
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Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge

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Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249617 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 11:45 AM


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Well, this look is certainly interesting.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249610 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 12:46 PM


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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 10:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249540 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 07:08 AM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 14 2017, 07:25 AM) *
7amEST temps. Snowing in Idaho & Wyoming. I see Teens and 20s on the map. Teens in October I never experienced let alone Mid October.. I'd like to get below 45° for now. lol

[attachment=331742:Map58.jpg]
A look at the Upper heights and temps at 5000'. Nice dip in the West...AGAIN

Summer morning here in 60s..AGAIN

[attachment=331743:Map59e.jpg]

Perhaps you get your wish, Nor. Starting to nudge closer to "not so unbelievable" range

Attached Image


Euro also hinting at a reversal of fortune (ridge W/ trough E) at end of run

Attached Image



As I see it, the signal for a break in the raging Pac Jet would lend credence to such an outcome. At Hr23+, across the major global models, I believe I spy an attempted split of the Pac Jet flow - allowing the downstream wave to buckle the zonal flow.
Hr252 shown of 6z GFS, for illustration purpose only - actual timing may vary

Attached Image

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249527 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 04:10 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 12 2017, 04:56 PM) *
So close, yet so far (hr 336). I'll take my 1-2 day breaks meanwhile. :-(

GFS12z for Binghamton: Normal 850mb temps is about 5C there.

You can see why this weekend will be very warm.

You can see why Monday and Tuesday will be awesome! (For me anyway) Temps at 5000' drop to near or below freezing!

Then we warm back up to well above normal for next weekend..

Then GFS is still trolling for end of month..

[attachment=331729:Data.jpg]

Yeah it is (so far). I do note that the GFS and EURO are relatively similar in re the upper air maps at the Hr240 mark - so GFS might not be in "sniffing glue" mode. If it does unfold, I have yet another episode of current weather that mimics that of the second half of 2011.

Those thoughts keep creeping back into my mind as I think about this winter. I've refrained from saying as much, so far - for fear that I would be, figuratively, set upon with stones, for doing so.

I detest the humidity we saw at the peak of the past uber warm spell and can only hope it's not to that extent. Otherwise, the longer I can keep from using my funds to pay the electric and propane bills, the better.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249476 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 11:56 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Eastern US probably should love seeing signals such as this - if only it would hold and persist. Well established W Ridge with a slightly positive tilt at crest, Rex block downstream, large trough in East.

A tall order to be sure, but somewhat encouraging to wintery weather lovers.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249465 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 04:46 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2017, 04:51 PM) *
TorchTober continues. Forgot normal lows have been 40s here since they been in 60s and 70s lately.

Cant wait for that 1-2 day break next week. Lol

[attachment=331698:Screensh...0_165115.png]

I prefer the term coined by Paul Knight of PSU -- Oct-toaster.

Not that it matters. A rose by any other name, and all that.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249383 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 02:58 PM


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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 9 2017, 03:56 PM) *
0.93" at IPT .. a bit of an under-performing.. (expected around 1.5" or so..)

Should work to soften the ground and I can fix up the decorations. That's all that mattered to me laugh.gif

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIPT.html

If you put out Dracula props, you can use the stakes. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249335 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 12:14 PM


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I believe that, if added correctly, is near 1.5" at MDT

Attached Image


A tick over 2.0" IMBY

Indiantown Gap, which is a couple ticks due east from UTS Hill, coming in at over 1.75"

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMUI.html
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249320 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:53 AM


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HIA reporting .9 something, with strong se flow and hvy rain resulting in a one hour obsx of 0.4" just the past hour.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249297 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:50 AM


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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 9 2017, 09:44 AM) *
Only 0.6" here so far. Didn't get much of anything overnight. Reading airport is 0.20" as of an hour ago.

I might be getting some upslope enhancement, as se flow at 10-18 has been the rule since daybreak.

Even the lighter green radar returns are manifesting as moderate to heavy at times wind blown rain IMBY.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249296 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:27 AM


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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 9 2017, 09:26 AM) *
Shouldn't be this warm and muggy on a rainy October day. tongue.gif Heaviest batch moved in here a little while ago. Should be down well before lunch time it looks like.

Just passed the 1.5" mark for the time period last evening until now. smile.gif

Much needed is an understatement.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249293 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 05:34 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 9 2017, 06:20 AM) *
Bring your slicker. tongue.gif

[attachment=331677:CCX_loop.gif]

That's the problem - it's too warm to wear anything over top. I plan to rough it out and get soaked - letting only my boonie hat shield me.

Attached Image


It's a short errand and I'll be able, if I want, to get a hot shower within two hours.

I may be a soft handed government worker, but I still remember how to tough things out - as I used to, so often, in the old days. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249286 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 9 2017, 05:02 AM) *
GOES16
[attachment=331675:ezgif_3_b97795c172.gif]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

Comparing to the HRRR, that convection is quite a ways further southeast than the HRRR would have it.

[attachment=331676:hrrr_ir_neus_3.png]

So far, the entire event has underperformed IMBY. Of course, since I have something outside I must do in 45 minutes, the heaviest batch moves in. sad.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249284 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 03:26 PM


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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 8 2017, 02:28 PM) *
Hoping Nate's remnants plus the front can deliver some rain east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. We desperately need it. Rocks in my river were wearing sunscreen yesterday when I was out fishing. rolleyes.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

If I use that metaphor, do I have to pay royalties? unsure.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249251 · Replies: · Views: 33,712

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 03:24 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Attached Image


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249250 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 06:27 AM


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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2017, 11:34 PM) *
It could indeed be entertaining even into November.
And hey, thanks for the posts.

The time frame is a bit off, but itīs a fun exercise.

The dates work for me. The overall pattern has not changed significantly since you first posted those thoughts - thus, still applicable.
cool.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249222 · Replies: · Views: 5,299

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 04:42 AM


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It has begun

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249219 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 01:31 PM


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For the first time in quite a few hours, the ADT Weakening Flag is "On" - Raw T value down to 4.2

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249136 · Replies: · Views: 33,712

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