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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
PoconoSnow
post Dec 3 2017, 06:51 PM
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22nd on bsr

Looks nice



Negative at h5





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PoconoSnow
post Dec 5 2017, 08:31 AM
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well the gfs lost the recurving typhoon around the 15th

it instead plows it through the phillipines weakly and then strengthens it in the south china see


but now the Euro has the typhoon around the 15th where before it had nada



there is a small spike in LJS around the 11 or 12th which could signal the 18th along with the soid and bsr but we are still a bit away from anything solid in EA


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jdrenken
post Dec 5 2017, 08:13 PM
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I like this...who could be the older man asking the question?



https://youtu.be/S2nl2SQZJC8



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stuffradio
post Dec 6 2017, 01:07 AM
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On the 3rd, the SOI dropped nearly 10 points and now today it spiked nearly 10 points. Crazy.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 6 2017, 04:17 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 5 2017, 08:13 PM) *
I like this...who could be the older man asking the question?



https://youtu.be/S2nl2SQZJC8

Dude sounded like a total doofus! I guess they let just about anyone call in to such shows. laugh.gif


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Undertakerson
post Dec 6 2017, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 3 2017, 06:51 PM) *
22nd on bsr

Looks nice



Negative at h5


ohmy.gif

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png ( 177.69K ) Number of downloads: 1


50/50 Uni on the map as well

White Christmas for $2,000 please, Alex.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 6 2017, 06:20 AM


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rtcemc
post Dec 6 2017, 09:17 AM
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I for one am proud of Bill for not sounding like a girl with a crush, the first time she meets Beyoncé. I see no reason why this doesn't open the door for guest spots on that show. One word of advice, cuz I am me - no wobbling winter calls, or you might receive a call from the Blue Ridge Bouncer tongue.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 7 2017, 07:00 AM
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Poof typhoon gone on gfs and euro



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jdrenken
post Dec 7 2017, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 7 2017, 06:00 AM) *
Poof typhoon gone on gfs and euro



The models reflected it in the CONUS


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 7 2017, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 7 2017, 08:51 AM) *
The models reflected it in the CONUS


The one modeled for around the 15th? Interesting

I did indeed notice that even though it didn't come to fruition, the idea of a front rolling through and grabbing it has been reflected in current modeling regardless of schrodingers typhoon smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Dec 8 2017, 02:14 PM
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BSR
Attached File  17_1218_00.png.gif ( 126.65K ) Number of downloads: 1


12z 08DEC17 Euro

Attached File(s)
Attached File  ecmwf_mslp_noram_228.png ( 225.73K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 13 2017, 01:41 PM
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So for my next lie....

Lolol


Bsr for 12/31

H5


Mslp


There appears to be a nice ridge poking up that may hint at a positively oriented PNA and western push in the "correct orientation"



East Asia rule/little Japanese snowmen



Shows yet another possible monster typhoon curving while a front crosses Japan and drops two piece snowmen all over smile.gif


The rrwt shows favorable h5 conditions in a 5d interval up until the 27th and depicts a -pna pattern change after that

A lot of dates/analogs gets blended so there may be some extremas that depict sturdiness during the 1231-0101 time frame.





As of 12/8 I believe the a good blend of 60, 50 and 37 days would be around 47 which pits us at around 10/22-23?

Maybe josh or renken can verify my math smile.gif

But here is the h5 for those dates at 12z
















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PoconoSnow
post Dec 13 2017, 01:41 PM
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Soi delta drops for the 31st as well



So really given all the pattern change talk and what not the OFM to me is sugnsking something possibly very interesting to bring in the new year

Guess we shall see smile.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 15 2017, 02:32 AM
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Looking forward to this system. Images valid for the 18th so look for something around January 4th




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Alwaysready126
post Jan 4 2018, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 15 2017, 03:32 AM) *
Looking forward to this system. Images valid for the 18th so look for something around January 4th




I've just been a lurker these days and leave the discussion to the experts, but i had to give you kudos. Really amazing that you hit this one right on the head.

Cliche, do you see anything else on the horizon?


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jdrenken
post Jan 4 2018, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Jan 4 2018, 01:15 PM) *
I've just been a lurker these days and leave the discussion to the experts, but i had to give you kudos. Really amazing that you hit this one right on the head.

Cliche, do you see anything else on the horizon?


Just a suggestion...

I would look at cranky's bsr page...
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-01-January.htm

The storm that he posted is not what is happening on the east coast. This is...


Note the valid dates don't match in the upper right.

Also...my bsr research paper is in the signature if you want to read it.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Alwaysready126
post Jan 4 2018, 11:17 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 4 2018, 05:15 PM) *
Just a suggestion...

I would look at cranky's bsr page...
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-01-January.htm

The storm that he posted is not what is happening on the east coast. This is...


Note the valid dates don't match in the upper right.

Also...my bsr research paper is in the signature if you want to read it.


Thanks JD!

Edit: WOW

This post has been edited by Alwaysready126: Jan 4 2018, 11:19 PM


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jdrenken
post Jan 6 2018, 02:46 PM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Jan 4 2018, 10:17 PM) *
Thanks JD!

Edit: WOW


No problem!

On a side note...getting attention...

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/ques...ict-the-weather


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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OSNW3
post Jan 10 2018, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 13 2017, 12:41 PM) *
Maybe josh or renken can verify my math smile.gif

But here is the h5 for those dates at 12z




I read this today. Sorry for the delay!

I have learned that timing of recurring weather patterns is in the eye of the beholder. Likely the main reason why I created the RRWT. Anyway...

On my RRWT maps I have added the frequency used to generate the ensemble mappings. Top left for NH maps and bottom left for SH maps. Also, I have recently added a section in the archives that shows the most recent model output analog H5 maps. It helps pick out storms.

A slight change in frequency can create major differences on the micro scale.
https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/950384908882542593

And, while I am at it, I did away with posting the 6-20d outlook and replaced it with the 36-50d outlook.
http://www.consonantchaos.com

Now we are having fun!


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