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> Nov. 14-17 Plains/MW/GL/OV Rain/Snow Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Forecast
futureweatherman...
post Nov 6 2010, 12:17 AM
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Figure someone would start this eventually. Worth a look with the ECMWF/GFS showing some sort of system in this time period.
12z ECMWF:
Attached Image

0z GFS:
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Reason for Edit: Title Dates

This post has been edited by futureweatherman12: Nov 13 2010, 02:01 PM


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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StormStalker
post Nov 6 2010, 09:39 AM
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That's a nice shot of cold air behind it...


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Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*
post Nov 6 2010, 10:06 AM
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Yeah it is a nice shot of cool air. I remember a tweet from my local meteorologist yesterday discussing the possibility of the first arctic outbreak of the season possible. Not sure if this is what he was talking about but we are certainly getting to that time of year.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Nov 6 2010, 02:19 PM
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12z Euro has a storm in southeast Texas with quite a bit of cold air to the north of it.


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Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*
post Nov 6 2010, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Nov 6 2010, 03:19 PM) *
12z Euro has a storm in southeast Texas with quite a bit of cold air to the north of it.


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CMC was showing that aswell. Waaay out there but it would result in a decent snowfall for areas like Amirillo and Lubbock. Please excusssee mi spellingg smile.gif
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jdrenken
post Nov 6 2010, 05:36 PM
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The ECMWF and Canadian Ensembles are showing another possible cut off around the 16th.


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jdrenken
post Nov 6 2010, 08:20 PM
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Let's compare the CFS and GFS...

12Z 06NOV10 GFS

204hr


00Z 04NOV10 CFS

264hr


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post Nov 6 2010, 11:52 PM
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Nice track of the storm on the 0z GFS for the OV and eastern GL. Problem is that its too warm for snow.
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Torontoweather
post Nov 7 2010, 06:09 PM
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Today's 18z GFS is the first run in a day or so(not saying much for the long-range) which has shown a more inland track with this particular system/set-up.

I'll start with hour 216(November 16 18z):

Shows one weaker system in the northern GLs area, and another stronger system in the NE GOMEX. BTW, plenty of cold air in this run. wink.gif ...For some areas.
Hour 228(November 17 06z):

Shows what looks to be the stronger and further south low pressure system getting pulled north perhaps by the weaker system in the GLs.
Hour 240:

Strong coastal/slightly inland runner likely bringing snow/wintry precipitation to the southern/eastern GLs, eastern OV and portions of far western Northeast.
Hour 252:

Strong slightly inland runner again likely producing more snow/wintry precipitation in the eastern GLs and now into further eastern regions of the interior NE.

Again, don't put too much stock into things right now, but no denying it is a somewhat nice teaser to look at, particularly for the southern/eastern GLs and eastern OV, and interior NE. wink.gif smile.gif


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post Nov 7 2010, 07:01 PM
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Nice looking storm there on the 18z GFS. A bit more to the west would make it interesting here.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Nov 7 2010, 11:51 PM
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0z GFS
Attached Image
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After this storm comes a huge shot of cold air with a big storm riding up the apps.
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jdrenken
post Nov 8 2010, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
355 AM EST MON NOV 08 2010

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 12 2010 - 12Z MON NOV 15 2010

BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MEANINGFUL DEEPENING AND SWD/SWWD
ELONGATION OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN PAC. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE
CORE OF ASSOC ERN PAC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES BY D+8 OFFER DECENT
SUPPORT FOR THE DOMINANT SOLN CLUSTER THAT SHOWS A NE-SW ORIENTED
MEAN TROF BY DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON. TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW IS A
LITTLE BROADER ON THE ERN CONUS SIDE OF THE MEAN TROF THAN MOST
SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER IN THE
PAST DAY THE GFS/GEFS MEAN HAVE RAISED EAST COAST HGTS TOWARD THE
ECMWF SCENARIO. ASSUMING THE SWWD AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE
UPSTREAM... THE MODERATELY HIGH EAST COAST HGTS OF THE MAJORITY
CLUSTER SEEM REASONABLE.

IN LIGHT OF DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT WHILE MEANINGFUL DETAIL
DIFFS AMONG INDIVIDUAL SOLNS PERSIST... A BLEND/LAGGED AVERAGE
APPROACH IS PREFERRED FOR THE OVERALL FCST. SUCH A SOLN WOULD
GIVE MINIMAL WEIGHTING TO THE GFS OVER THE WRN STATES AND NRN TIER
AROUND DAY 5 SAT AS MOST OTHER SOLNS SHOW GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF
FLOW OVER THE WEST AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MID LVL ENERGY TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY. WHILE SOME GFS DETAILS ALOFT ARE A QUESTION
MARK... THE MODEL DOES HAVE A FAVORABLE COMPROMISE TIMING CLOSE TO
HPC CONTINUITY WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
GRTLKS DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS SFC LOW THE PAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE BEEN ON THE OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE TIMING SPECTRUM... THE
00Z RUN BEING FAST AND THE 12Z/7 RUN SLOW. THE UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMILAR TO OR
A FRACTION FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DETAIL DIFFS THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE... THE DAYS 3-7
THU-MON FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS AND 00Z
GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALONG WITH A SMALL WEIGHTING OF
THE GFS FOR THE SFC FCST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FROM THE
INITIAL BLEND TO INCREASE DEFINITION OF THE PLAINS THRU GRTLKS SFC
LOW.

RAUSCH
q


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The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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jdrenken
post Nov 8 2010, 07:31 AM
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Day 7 map



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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Nov 8 2010, 08:08 AM
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00Z 8-10 Day Means...



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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Nov 8 2010, 06:12 PM
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18z GFS has a big storm up the apps with the flood gates opening behind it. If only the cold air could get to the storm quicker.

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Chicago Storm
post Nov 9 2010, 11:41 PM
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Tons of phasing issues.

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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2010, 07:31 AM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/300 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010/

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES. A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION AND THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS THAT DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW MAY GENERATE
OVERRUNNING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. ATTM THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN VOID OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS LATER
PERIOD OWING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY RAIN SHIELD.


QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 AM CST WED NOV 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 229 AM CST WED NOV 10 2010

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GIVEN THE NEW SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER IF THE GFS VERIFIES...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY. MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE SHARPLY
COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 0C ON SATURDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT FOR SUNDAY. END RESULT WILL BE TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY AND MONDAY BEING THE COOLEST MORNING.
FURTHER OUT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADS...BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2010, 07:32 AM
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QUOTE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
356 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 14 2010 - 12Z WED NOV 17 2010

THE LARGE SCALE FCST HAS GOOD CONTINUITY... WITH A STRONG ERN PAC
RIDGE SUPPORTING A DEEPENING AND BROADENING MEAN TROF OVER NORTH
AMERICA. MEANINGFUL DETAIL DIFFS WITHIN THE AGREED UPON MEAN FLOW
CONTINUE THOUGH. ALREADY AT THE START OF THE FCST EARLY DAY 3 SAT
THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLNS WITH THE TIMING OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GRTLKS.
THE 00Z
ECMWF TRENDED MUCH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS CONSENSUS... TO THE POINT
THAT IT NOW REPRESENTS THE SLOWEST SOLN. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD. TO DEAL
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE THAT IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN CONTINUITY BUT NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE. UPSTREAM THE GFS IS STILL ON THE SLOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE
WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE ERN PAC RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING INTO THE
NORTHWEST/NRN PLAINS SUN ONWARD... AND BECOMES A FAST EXTREME WITH
DOWNSTREAM FLOW PROGRESSING FROM THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST DAYS 6-7
TUE-WED. THUS THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST FAVORS LATEST ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS.

DAYS 3-5 SAT-MON START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THIS BLEND REFLECTS THE
NON-GFS PREFERENCE WITH FLOW REACHING THE NERN PAC/SRN CANADA AS
WELL AS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OVER THE WRN CONUS... WHILE IT IS
ADJUSTED ACHIEVE A COMPROMISE SOLN WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO
THE GRTLKS. WITH THE EXIT OF THE GRTLKS SYSTEM THE GEFS MEAN
BECOMES AN ACCEPTABLE COMPONENT OF THE FAVORED BLEND... SO THE
DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED FCST INCORPORATES THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS AND 00Z
GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.

RAUSCH


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2010, 07:33 AM
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Associated Day 3-7 maps...



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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Chicago Storm
post Nov 13 2010, 12:02 AM
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GFS cuts this system up west of the Apps. Several of the individual ensemble members agree.
Attached Image

The NAM would be even further west.
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