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> Feb 28 - Mar 2 Southeast Winter Storm., Forecast Thread CLOSED; Use Obs
John1122
post Feb 23 2009, 12:26 PM
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Ok this one is still on the GFS and while the GFS isn't currently showing a snowstorm it is showing a pattern very favorable for a possible snowstorm.

A storm moves by late next week setting up something of a NW flow on it's back side. A big dome of HP moves from Southern Canada into the Northern Plains and across into the upper Great Lakes.

Meanwhile LP begins to develop on the tail end of a front in the Northern GOM. That LP slides along the Northern Gulf Coast and across Florida near Jacksonville. Then it goes off the coast about 250 miles and starts to turn NNE.

As of now the GFS is showing the LP in the GOM as not being terribly strong, so it's not really grabbing the supply of cold air the HP to the north is supplying nor is it throwing moisture as far north as Tennessee, Kentucky or SW VA. Thus the GFS is showing a cold rain across Miss, Alabama, Georgia and then the Carolinas.

But as always, when a storm is moving along the GOM anyone North and then Northwest will have the potential for wintry weather if the LP is strong enough. So we want to root for this one to get going a little better in the GOM and then turn North up across extreme SE Georgia and then right along the coast of SC and NC.

One thing is for sure, as long as that big H is sliding from the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes this one won't run West of the Apps. So there is still potential for this one.









--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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kvegaswx
post Feb 23 2009, 01:11 PM
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I've been following these posts for weeks now and finally just had to sign up. If I had the power I would grant all of you your own personal blizzard of 78'.......twice! cool.gif

I think we just have to start hoping for an early summer and we are bound to get the "bomb" we all want. One thing I know for sure, and Frank eluded to it yesterday I think, March is not too late for excitement here in the NC piedmont. Some of the best sledding ever has been had on snow mixed with ice pellets!

Love the analysis John1122. Keep em' coming......
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John1122
post Feb 23 2009, 01:36 PM
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The latest Euro is showing a major snow storm over the SE. Unfortunately it's several days away and the Euro hasn't been doing all that well this winter.







This post has been edited by John1122: Feb 23 2009, 01:38 PM


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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wh_adkins
post Feb 23 2009, 01:52 PM
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has done better than gfs untill last storm..couple other models are sowing this solution as well
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John1122
post Feb 23 2009, 01:57 PM
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Actually it's been pretty bad, it was just that the GFS has been bad until the last storm as well.

Remember, the Euro was also on board with a massive Ground Hog day blizzard that fizzled.

No models have been good this winter more than 72 hours out until the GFS pretty much nailed the last event.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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John1122
post Feb 23 2009, 02:24 PM
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Local NWS only put out their standard 2 paragraph forecast discussion. So they really didn't give any thoughts on this at all other than to say the potential second wave of precip that would move across Saturday would be disregarded even though it's certainly possible.

At this point this will probably be another interesting model week but maybe not all that great of a solution.

The only thing I can say with reasonable certainty is that neither the GFS run or the ECMWF run posted above are very likely to be the exact final solution. Very probably they will either move up or back by a day in the timing if the event even happens.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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kvegaswx
post Feb 23 2009, 03:06 PM
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From NWS Raleigh:

For Saturday through monday: forecast confidence falls off heading
into the weekend. While the overall pattern of a western noam ridge
and eastern noam trough looks good... important details are elusive.
The cold front appears likely to stall out just to our south... as
cold high pressure attempts to build in from the north. Both the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) do show a middle level shortwave trough dropping out of the
central rockies toward the western Carolinas on Saturday... inducing
a surface wave along the front. But the GFS becomes much slower and
deeper with this wave than the European model (ecmwf)... which equates to widely
varied timing/placement of any resultant surface low. The most
probable solution is that the front will indeed stall for a short
while but eventually ease southward (pushed by successive shortwave
troughs diving through the mean longwave trough) with surface high
pressure building down from the north through Monday. However... one
of the other possibilities is that the shortwave trough will amplify
more than expected and close off over the Carolinas/southeast...
inducing major surface cyclogenesis along the front that may or may
not be close enough to central NC to throw precipitation back into our
area... and thicknesses would suggest that some wintry precipitation would
not be out of the question in this scenario.
For now will go with
the former solution... favoring high pressure nosing in and keeping
cool temperatures through the period with a residual slight chance of rain
across the south through Saturday and dry weather thereafter...
however this picture could change as this time frame draws closer.

The ducks would seem to be on the pond.....but I would prefer they be ice skating instead of swimming! Haven't we been down this road before?? sad.gif
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Big E
post Feb 23 2009, 03:06 PM
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Thanks John for getting a posting on this. The GFS was hinting at something possible for the SE on Saturday. I know it is a long shot but it is fun to follow the models knowing that there is a chance (even if slight). Who knows what can happen in March but the chance of a GOM LP is exciting and something we have not seen the possiblility of much this year. I hope we get and keep some model consistency. March can give us some wicked weather! We are over-do here in the NC Piedmont.
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wh_adkins
post Feb 23 2009, 03:10 PM
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mid next week looks pretty impressive
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WeatherMan1234
post Feb 23 2009, 03:34 PM
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does anyone know if their might be some snow in the carolina peidmont?? i really would like some snow and i think mother nature cant rip us off again, so we have a greater chance than the previous storms.


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Miller Hyatt
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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 23 2009, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(Big E @ Feb 23 2009, 04:06 PM) *
Thanks John for getting a posting on this. The GFS was hinting at something possible for the SE on Saturday. I know it is a long shot but it is fun to follow the models knowing that there is a chance (even if slight). Who knows what can happen in March but the chance of a GOM LP is exciting and something we have not seen the possiblility of much this year. I hope we get and keep some model consistency. March can give us some wicked weather! We are over-do here in the NC Piedmont.


We have quite a few times....0 of them panned out

Good luck though following this.

You aren't over do, you just don't live in an area where it actually snows...that's what happens when you live in the southeast with palm trees and white sandy beaches, it doesn't snow.

Syracuse is better.

The pattern calls for amplification but there has been 0 of that this winter. We have a +NAO and -PNA which means the pattern is progressive. That means the s/w associated with this storm remains farther to the north and won't have a chance to amplify. The slowing down is caused by the rex blocking in the Pacific and there has been the tendency for the models to over-do and or make these types of blockings last too long. If the rex blocking does occur, well we still would need a few other pieces to fall in place for you guys to get snow. The models showed historic snows throughout the entire east coast during this winter and none of them panned out. Everyone should be highly skeptical of a good snowstorm, especially those that live in areas that are climatologically inept to receiving them.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Feb 23 2009, 03:50 PM


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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GeorgiaGirl
post Feb 23 2009, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(John1122 @ Feb 23 2009, 03:24 PM) *
Local NWS only put out their standard 2 paragraph forecast discussion. So they really didn't give any thoughts on this at all other than to say the potential second wave of precip that would move across Saturday would be disregarded even though it's certainly possible.

At this point this will probably be another interesting model week but maybe not all that great of a solution.

The only thing I can say with reasonable certainty is that neither the GFS run or the ECMWF run posted above are very likely to be the exact final solution. Very probably they will either move up or back by a day in the timing if the event even happens.


Weird.... That is kinda the only NWS that puts out a little. The weather around where I live is usually quiet and we get 5 paragraphs usually (or more). laugh.gif
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 23 2009, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Feb 23 2009, 04:49 PM) *
We have quite a few times....0 of them panned out

Good luck though following this.

You aren't over do, you just don't live in an area where it actually snows...that's what happens when you live in the southeast with palm trees and white sandy beaches, it doesn't snow.

Syracuse is better.

The pattern calls for amplification but there has been 0 of that this winter. We have a +NAO and -PNA which means the pattern is progressive. That means the s/w associated with this storm remains farther to the north and won't have a chance to amplify. The slowing down is caused by the rex blocking in the Pacific and there has been the tendency for the models to over-do and or make these types of blockings last too long. If the rex blocking does occur, well we still would need a few other pieces to fall in place for you guys to get snow. The models showed historic snows throughout the entire east coast during this winter and none of them panned out. Everyone should be highly skeptical of a good snowstorm, especially those that live in areas that are climatologically inept to receiving them.


lol way to rain on people's parades but you are 100% correct.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Big E
post Feb 23 2009, 04:22 PM
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Hey Weatherjunkie from up there in Philly - The sand and palmtrees is really nice down here in the south but believe it or not here in the NW Piedmont of NC we are suppose to average 9.2" of snow a year. We have not seen anything close to that in over 4 years. We want it both - Sand and Snow down here in the Carolinas! We have had chances of GOM LP systems this season but it seems they were northern steam systems we were hoping would "dig" in but they never did. The current GFS run is not the same as the past couple of SE "ghost" storms inregards to the upper level energy location. This makes it different then the past chances but I agree unlikely. Best guess is will be laying in the sun and sand early this year!
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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 23 2009, 04:27 PM
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QUOTE(Big E @ Feb 23 2009, 05:22 PM) *
Hey Weatherjunkie from up there in Philly - The sand and palmtrees is really nice down here in the south but believe it or not here in the NW Piedmont of NC we are suppose to average 9.2" of snow a year. We have not seen anything close to that in over 4 years. We want it both - Sand and Snow down here in the Carolinas! We have had chances of GOM LP systems this season but it seems they were northern steam systems we were hoping would "dig" in but they never did. The current GFS run is not the same as the past couple of SE "ghost" storms inregards to the upper level energy location. This makes it different then the past chances but I agree unlikely. Best guess is will be laying in the sun and sand early this year!


Remember the sun tan lotion. Sun angle is quite high in February lol.

In all seriousness, they get that composite of 9.2" combining the past 150 years of record keeping. That means you have had a lot of <5" of snow years and maybe a few greater than 12". The much higher probability is less than your average especially with a La-Nina like type winter.

I am still waiting on the GOM LP.

18z GFS brings this waaaaay north.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Feb 23 2009, 04:28 PM


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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WeatherMan1234
post Feb 23 2009, 04:28 PM
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hope the gfs shows actual snow. right now it justs shows a storm but the freezing line is up in tennesse, so we will have to wait and see!


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Miller Hyatt
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wh_adkins
post Feb 23 2009, 04:30 PM
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local mets are jumping on moday storm already..gfs and euro in good agreement this could finally be our storm
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wh_adkins
post Feb 23 2009, 04:34 PM
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look..early out but the bottom line is that is the storm does hold true with the massive low developing off of ga coast monday, cold air will be in place, 540 is down to sc..meaning that piedmont of nc east could get a very good snowstorm, the amounts the dgex showed last tuesday for the last storm..would honestly be what to expect from this..but 7 days is a long time..again, i just love to see the GFS AND EURO both showing the coastal.
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hillbilly weathe...
post Feb 23 2009, 04:45 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Feb 23 2009, 05:27 PM) *
Remember the sun tan lotion. Sun angle is quite high in February lol.

In all seriousness, they get that composite of 9.2" combining the past 150 years of record keeping. That means you have had a lot of <5" of snow years and maybe a few greater than 12". The much higher probability is less than your average especially with a La-Nina like type winter.

I am still waiting on the GOM LP.

18z GFS brings this waaaaay north.

Hey weatherjunkie,,,not quite sure where you are talking bout, sand and palm trees. Its currently 25 degrees here and the kids missed school for the 12th time this year 'cause of snow. I agree with most of your weather analysis and am sure that you are much more knowledgable than us hicks down here. Guess some are just wanting see some more of the white stuff. Funny...guess thats why so many of you yankees move down here.
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Big E
post Feb 23 2009, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Feb 23 2009, 05:27 PM) *
Remember the sun tan lotion. Sun angle is quite high in February lol.

In all seriousness, they get that composite of 9.2" combining the past 150 years of record keeping. That means you have had a lot of <5" of snow years and maybe a few greater than 12". The much higher probability is less than your average especially with a La-Nina like type winter.

I am still waiting on the GOM LP.

18z GFS brings this waaaaay north.



Correct and thanks weatherjunkie - Please keep us informed on your thoughts on the upcoming models. Sunscreen is a must and you can't beat year around golf!
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