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> Sept 7-12 MidAtl/NE Storm, Non-Tropical/Hybrid Forecasts & OBS
NYCSuburbs
post Sep 7 2009, 08:25 AM
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A storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to coastal areas between Monday-Wednesday before moving out to sea, however some models, also the HPC show the possibility of rainfall also affecting the northern Mid-Atlantic.

Since heavy rain is already falling in SE VA, this thread is also for observations.

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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 12 2009, 04:34 PM
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AnthonyS
post Sep 7 2009, 10:06 AM
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Early this morning, analysis of radar mosaics and infrared satellite imagery showed an area of enhanced convection along the NC coast. This region of concern was identified to be generally in the lower troposphere, removed from the mean westerly flow. The 00Z NSSL-WRF was among the first to pick up on this convection, and slowly takes it northward into southeastern PA/eastern PA, NJ, and DE over the next 36 hours. Today's 12Z NAM is quite different than its previous runs, and now supports the NSSL-WRF by also taking this area of precipitation across the region. It will be interesting to see if future model runs from the GFS and ECMWF bring the heavier precipitation further west as well.

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Cheers!

This post has been edited by AnthonyS: Sep 7 2009, 10:08 AM


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WEATHERFAN100
post Sep 7 2009, 10:52 AM
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Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
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-James
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AnthonyS
post Sep 7 2009, 11:06 AM
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The 12Z GFS is also west and much wetter:

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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2009, 11:09 AM
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So this means a possible flooding event again if those numbers actually happen. Atleast it will be a slow flood and not a flash flood. I was actually taken off guard by this. Had no idea. Also when is the main rain expected to hit?


--------------------
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Millersville University


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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 7 2009, 11:16 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 7 2009, 12:09 PM) *
So this means a possible flooding event again if those numbers actually happen. Atleast it will be a slow flood and not a flash flood. I was actually taken off guard by this. Had no idea. Also when is the main rain expected to hit?

As of now, it seems that SE VA and eastern North Carolina should have heavy rain until at least late tomorrow, with a possible area of heavy rain moving through our area between Thursday-Friday.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 7 2009, 11:18 AM
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AnthonyS
post Sep 7 2009, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 7 2009, 01:09 PM) *
So this means a possible flooding event again if those numbers actually happen. Atleast it will be a slow flood and not a flash flood.


Let's not go jumping to such conclusions. Flash flood and headwater flood guidance across our region are all quite high. Also, we still need to gather some more information before making a forecast.


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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 7 2009, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(AnthonyS @ Sep 7 2009, 12:17 PM) *
Let's not go jumping to such conclusions. Flash flood and headwater flood guidance across our region are all quite high. Also, we still need to gather some more information before making a forecast.

Agreed, as it is still not certain that we will see rain from this storm. Accuweather shows the storm moving out to sea, while the NAM and GFS show the rain moving inland. So as you said, we still neet to get more information about this storm before making forecasts.
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Superstorm93
post Sep 7 2009, 11:38 AM
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Special graphical update from AnalystWx!


Mid Atlantic storm graphic by (FIC) Hunter Outten.






--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2009, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(AnthonyS @ Sep 7 2009, 01:17 PM) *
Let's not go jumping to such conclusions. Flash flood and headwater flood guidance across our region are all quite high. Also, we still need to gather some more information before making a forecast.


Oh... woops didn't want it to come out as if i was prediciting that! I just want to be sure since if i dig say 2inches underground the ground would still be completely be drenched. I just want to prepare in case anything bad happens.

If possible could you post those? Even if we do not get heavy rain from this i would still like to see them. Thanks!


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Millersville University


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AnthonyS
post Sep 7 2009, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 7 2009, 02:05 PM) *
Oh... woops didn't want it to come out as if i was prediciting that! I just want to be sure since if i dig say 2inches underground the ground would still be completely be drenched. I just want to prepare in case anything bad happens.

If possible could you post those? Even if we do not get heavy rain from this i would still like to see them. Thanks!


Headwater Flood Guidance:

CODE
000
FOUS71 KRHA 071433
FFHPA2
HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2009

APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12/24-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES)
REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE
INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS.

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF
:
:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  12HR  24HR  HEADWATER NAME
:======= ====  ====  ====  ====  ====  ====================
:
: NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA...
:  SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...
:  Chenango River...
SHBN6     3.8/  4.0/  4.0/  4.0/  4.3 :Sherburne (8.5ft.)
:SHBN6md  4.2/  4.4/  4.5/  4.5/  4.9 :Sherburne (9)
:SHBN6mj  5.8/  6.1/  6.2/  6.2/  6.6 :Sherburne (10.6)
:  Otselic River...
CINN6     4.9/  5.2/  5.5/  5.7/  6.1 :Cincinnatus (9ft.)
: ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table.
:  Cohocton River...
CMPN6     3.8/  4.5/  4.8/  4.9/  5.3 :Campbell (8ft.)
:CMPN6md  4.8/  5.7/  6.1/  6.3/  7.0 :Campbell (10)
:CMPN6mj  5.6/  6.8/  7.4/  7.7/  8.4 :Campbell (11)
:  Canisteo River...
WCRN6     4.3/  4.8/  5.2/  5.5/  5.6 :West Cameron (17ft)
:WCRN6md  4.6/  5.1/  5.5/  5.9/  5.9 :West Cameron (18)
:WCRN6mj  5.5/  6.3/  6.8/  7.4/  7.5 :West Cameron (21)
:  Towanda Creek...
MONP1     3.7/  3.7/  3.8/  4.3/  5.2 :Monroeton (15.5ft)
:MONP1md  4.2/  4.2/  4.4/  4.9/  6.1 :Monroeton (17)
:MONP1mj  4.9/  5.0/  5.2/  5.9/  7.6 :Monroeton (18.5)
:  Tunkhannock Creek...
TNKP1     3.3/  3.8/  4.4/  4.9/  5.8 :Tunkhannock (11ft.)
:TNKP1md  4.0/  4.6/  5.4/  6.0/  7.3 :Tunkhannock (14)
:TNKP1mj  4.6/  5.4/  6.4/  7.3/  8.4 :Tunkhannock (17)
:  Lackawanna River...
OFRP1     5.1/  5.7/  6.2/  6.6/  7.5 :Old Forge (11ft.)
:OFRP1md  5.8/  6.4/  7.0/  7.5/  8.4 :Old Forge (13)
:OFRP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Old Forge (16)
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  East Branch Delaware River...
MRGN6     4.1/  4.5/  5.1/  5.6/  6.4 :Margaretville (11ft)
:MRGN6md  4.7/  5.2/  5.9/  6.6/  7.6 :Margaretville (12)
:MRGN6mj  5.4/  5.9/  6.8/  7.8/  8.4 :Margaretville (13)
:  West Branch Delaware River...
WALN6     2.0/  3.4/  3.4/  3.5/  3.8 :Walton (9.5ft.)
:WALN6md  3.2/  5.4/  5.5/  5.6/  6.3 :Walton (14)
:WALN6mj  4.0/  6.6/  6.8/  7.0/  8.0 :Walton (16)
:  Beaverkill Creek...
CKFN6     3.3/  3.9/  4.5/  5.0/  5.8 :Cooks Falls (10ft.)
:CKFN6md  5.3/  6.5/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Cooks Falls (16)
:CKFN6mj  6.2/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Cooks Falls (18)
:  Lackawaxen River...
HWYP1     5.0/  5.4/  5.6/  5.8/  5.9 :Hawley (11ft.)
:HWYP1md  5.4/  5.9/  6.1/  6.3/  6.5 :Hawley (12)
:HWYP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Hawley (20)
:
: NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA...
:  SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...
:  Tioga River...
MFDP1     4.3/  4.5/  4.7/  5.4/  6.6 :Mansfield (12ft.)
:MFDP1md  4.7/  4.9/  5.2/  6.1/  7.6 :Mansfield (13)
:MFDP1mj  5.4/  5.6/  6.0/  7.1/  8.4 :Mansfield (14)
:  Penns Creek...
PNCP1     3.4/  3.7/  4.1/  4.3/  4.6 :Penns Creek (8ft.)
:PNCP1md  4.0/  4.6/  5.0/  5.3/  5.6 :Penns Creek (10)
:PNCP1mj  4.9/  5.6/  6.2/  6.7/  7.2 :Penns Creek (12)
:  Frankstown Branch Juniata River...
WIBP1     3.1/  3.2/  3.7/  4.0/  4.5 :Williamsburg (12ft)
:WIBP1md  3.3/  3.5/  4.0/  4.2/  4.9 :Williamsburg (13)
:WIBP1mj  3.7/  3.9/  4.5/  4.8/  5.6 :Williamsburg (15)
:  Little Juniata River...
SPKP1     3.2/  3.5/  4.0/  4.3/  5.0 :Spruce Creek (8ft.)
:SPKP1md  3.7/  4.1/  4.7/  5.2/  6.1 :Spruce Creek (10)
:SPKP1mj  5.0/  5.6/  6.5/  7.2/  8.4 :Spruce Creek (14)
:  Aughwick Creek...
SLYP1     3.8/  3.9/  4.0/  4.2/  4.8 :Shirleysburg (10ft.)
:SLYP1md  4.6/  4.7/  4.8/  5.1/  5.7 :Shirleysburg (12)
:SLYP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Shirleysburg (20)
:  Sherman Creek...
SMDP1     3.4/  3.6/  4.0/  4.1/  4.8 :Shermans Dale (9ft)
:SMDP1md  4.1/  4.4/  4.8/  4.9/  5.9 :Shermans Dale (11)
:SMDP1mj  6.1/  6.7/  7.4/  7.8/  8.4 :Shermans Dale (16)
:  Conodoguinet Creek...
HGSP1     4.7/  4.7/  4.7/  4.7/  4.9 :Hogestown (8ft.)
:HGSP1md  5.8/  5.8/  5.8/  5.9/  6.1 :Hogestown (10)
:HGSP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.1/  7.2/  7.6 :Hogestown (12)
:  Yellow Breeches Creek...
CPHP1     4.4/  4.5/  4.5/  4.6/  5.0 :Camp Hill (7ft.)
:CPHP1md  5.2/  5.3/  5.4/  5.5/  6.0 :Camp Hill (9)
:CPHP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Camp Hill (13)
:  Swatara Creek...
HTVP1     3.3/  3.3/  3.5/  3.7/  4.0 :Harper Tavern (9ft.)
:HTVP1md  4.3/  4.4/  4.6/  4.9/  5.3 :Harper Tavern (12)
:HTVP1mj  5.5/  5.6/  5.9/  6.3/  7.0 :Harper Tavern (15)
:  Conestoga River...
LNCP1     3.4/  3.5/  3.6/  3.9/  4.5 :Lancaster (11ft.)
:LNCP1md  4.0/  4.2/  4.4/  4.7/  5.4 :Lancaster (13)
:LNCP1mj  4.7/  4.9/  5.2/  5.6/  6.3 :Lancaster (15)
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Schuylkill River...
LGVP1     3.0/  3.2/  3.2/  3.4/  3.8 :Landingville (8ft)
:LGVP1md  3.7/  4.0/  4.1/  4.5/  5.3 :Landingville (12)
:LGVP1mj  4.2/  4.6/  4.8/  5.3/  6.2 :Landingville (14)
:
: NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA...
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Schuylkill River...
BREP1     4.3/  4.6/  5.2/  5.6/  6.3 :Berne (12ft.)
:BREP1md  5.4/  5.7/  6.5/  7.0/  8.1 :Berne (14)
:BREP1mj  6.5/  6.9/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Berne (16)
:  Bush Kill...
SHOP1     6.1/  6.4/  6.5/  6.6/  6.9 :Shoemakers (6ft.)
:SHOP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.3/  7.5/  7.8 :Shoemakers (7)
:SHOP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Shoemakers (8)
:  Brodhead Creek...
MNSP1     5.6/  6.2/  7.0/  7.3/  8.0 :Minisink Hills(10ft)
:MNSP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Minisink Hills(12)
:MNSP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Minisink Hills(15)
:  Little Lehigh Creek...
APAP1     4.4/  4.7/  5.2/  6.0/  7.2 :Allentown-10th (8ft)
:APAP1md  5.4/  5.8/  6.4/  7.6/  8.4 :Allentown-10th (10)
:APAP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Allentown-10th (12)
:  Perkiomen Creek...
GRAP1     2.9/  3.5/  3.7/  4.4/  5.4 :Graterford (11ft.)
:GRAP1md  3.4/  4.1/  4.4/  5.2/  6.5 :Graterford (13)
:GRAP1mj  4.1/  5.0/  5.4/  6.6/  8.4 :Graterford (16)
:  Neshaminy Creek...
LNGP1     2.5/  3.0/  3.0/  3.4/  4.3 :Langhorne (9ft.)
:LNGP1md  2.8/  3.3/  3.4/  3.8/  4.7 :Langhorne (10)
:LNGP1mj  3.3/  3.9/  4.1/  4.5/  5.8 :Langhorne (12)
:  Chester Creek...
CHSP1     2.4/  2.5/  2.7/  3.4/  4.6 :Chester (8ft.)
:CHSP1md  2.9/  3.0/  3.4/  4.1/  5.7 :Chester (10)
:CHSP1mj  4.2/  4.4/  4.8/  6.0/  8.4 :Chester (14)
:  West Branch Brandywine Creek...
MODP1     5.8/  6.1/  6.5/  6.8/  8.4 :Modena (9ft)
:MODP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Modena (10)
:MODP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Modena (12)
:  East Branch Brandywine Creek...
DWNP1     2.6/  2.7/  2.7/  2.9/  3.7 :Downingtown (7ft)
:DWNP1md  3.1/  3.1/  3.2/  3.5/  4.3 :Downingtown (8)
:DWNP1mj  3.5/  3.6/  3.7/  3.9/  4.9 :Downingtown (9)
:  Brandywine Creek...
CDFP1     2.3/  2.8/  3.3/  3.5/  4.2 :Chadds Ford (9ft.)
:CDFP1md  2.8/  3.6/  4.1/  4.3/  5.3 :Chadds Ford (11)
:CDFP1mj  3.6/  4.6/  5.3/  5.5/  6.9 :Chadds Ford (13)
:  Christina River...
CHBD1     2.6/  2.7/  3.0/  3.8/  5.3 :Coochs Brdg(10.5ft)
:CHBD1md  3.2/  3.4/  3.9/  5.0/  7.1 :Coochs Brdg(11.5)
:CHBD1mj  4.3/  4.6/  5.2/  6.9/  8.4 :Coochs Brdg(12.5)
:  White Clay Creek...
DPKD1     2.3/  2.3/  2.6/  3.2/  4.4 :Delaware Pk (13ft)
:DPKD1md  3.3/  3.4/  3.7/  4.5/  6.5 :Delaware Pk (15)
:DPKD1mj  4.8/  5.0/  5.4/  6.9/  8.4 :Delaware Pk (16.5)
:  Red Clay Creek...
RCCD1     2.8/  3.0/  3.3/  3.9/  5.2 :Wooddale (7ft)
:RCCD1md  3.5/  3.7/  4.2/  4.8/  6.7 :Wooddale (8.5)
:RCCD1mj  4.2/  4.5/  4.9/  5.8/  8.4 :Wooddale (10)
.END

UPPER DELAWARE BASIN WATER SUPPLY GUIDANCE

APPROXIMATE RUNOFF (IN MILLIONS OF GALLONS) PRODUCED FROM EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING 6-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN INCHES)...

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/QMXC1/QMXC2/QMXC3/QMXC4/QMXC5
.B1 /QMXC6
:                 RAINFALL
:IDENT    0.1    0.5    1.0    2.0     3.0     5.0   LOCATION
:======= ===== ====== ====== ====== ======= =======  ================
CANN6DEL    22/    32/   494/  1420/   2366/   6296 :CANNONSVILLE-456sqmi
DWNN6DEL    18/    18/   132/  1101/   2482/   8686 :PEPACTON-372sqmi
LWKP1WPK    11/    11/    11/   518/   1078/   3867 :WALLENPAUPACK-228sqm
NVRN6NVR    04/    04/    47/   265/    556/   1833 :NEVERSINK-93sqmi
.END

==================================================
==============
         EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT
     NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION
==================================================
==============
NWS Binghamton Service area...
  Lackawanna River at Archbald, PA
.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:GageID   1hr   3hr   6hr  12hr rainfall for indicated stages
ARHP1     4.7/  4.8/  5.2/  6.0 :Archbald (8ft.)
:ARHP1md  5.3/  5.4/  5.9/  6.9 :Archbald (9)
:ARHP1mj  5.9/  6.1/  6.6/  7.9 :Archbald (10)
.END
  Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF...
.E ARHP1 0906 E DC0909062047/DH23/HGIFX/DIH3/2.1/2.2/2.2/2.2/2.2/2.2
.E1 /2.2/2.2

  Lackawanna River at Scranton (Parker St.), PA
.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:GageID   1hr   3hr   6hr  12hr rainfall for indicated stages
PKIP1     3.8/  3.8/  3.9/  4.2 :Scranton (6ft.)
:PKIP1md  4.0/  4.1/  4.2/  4.5 :Scranton (7)
:PKIP1mj  4.3/  4.4/  4.5/  4.9 :Scranton (8)
.END
  Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF...
.E PKIP1 0906 E DC0909062047/DH23/HGIFX/DIH3/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8
.E1 /1.8/1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------

$$
NNNN


CODE
000
FOUS71 KRHA 071433
FFHNJ1
HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2009

APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES)
REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT
THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS.

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:
:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  12HR  HEADWATER NAME        STREAM
:======= ====  ====  ====  ====  ====================  ==================
:
: NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA...
:  Ramapo River...
MAHN4     5.7/  6.2/  6.5/  6.7 :Mahwah (8ft.)         Ramapo River
:MAHN4md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Mahwah (9)            Ramapo River
:MAHN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Mahwah (12)           Ramapo River
:  Hohokus Brook...
HOHN4     2.1/  2.4/  3.0/  4.1 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft.)      Hohokus Brook
:  Saddle River...
LODN4     2.4/  2.7/  3.5/  3.7 :Lodi (6ft.)           Saddle River
:LODN4md  2.8/  3.2/  4.0/  4.3 :Lodi (7)              Saddle River
:LODN4mj  3.2/  3.6/  4.7/  4.9 :Lodi (8)              Saddle River
:  Rahway River...
SPGN4     2.8/  2.9/  3.0/  3.7 :Springfield (5.5ft)   Rahway River
:
: NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA...
:  PASSAIC BASIN...
:  Passaic River...
CAMN4     3.8/  4.1/  5.1/  5.9 :Chatham (6ft.)        Passaic River
:CAMN4md  5.0/  5.5/  6.7/  8.0 :Chatham (7.2)         Passaic River
:CAMN4mj  6.0/  6.5/  7.4/  8.0 :Chatham (8.2)         Passaic River
:  Rockaway River...
BNTN4     6.4/  6.8/  6.9/  7.0 :Boonton Abv. (5ft.)   Rockaway River
:BNTN4md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Boonton Abv. (6)      Rockaway River
:BNTN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Boonton Abv. (7)      Rockaway River
:  Whippany River...
WHIN4     4.2/  4.4/  4.8/  5.0 :Morristown (6ft.)     Whippany River
:  RARITAN BASIN..
:  South Branch Raritan River...
STTN4     4.1/  4.3/  4.4/  4.8 :Stanton (8ft.)        S. Br. Raritan R.
:STTN4md  5.4/  5.8/  5.8/  6.3 :Stanton (10)          S. Br. Raritan R.
:STTN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Stanton (12)          S. Br. Raritan R.
:  North Branch Raritan River...
RRTN4     3.7/  4.1/  4.4/  5.0 :Raritan (10ft.)       N. Br. Raritan R.
:RRTN4md  4.8/  5.3/  5.7/  6.5 :Raritan (12)          N. Br. Raritan R.
:RRTN4mj  6.3/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Raritan (15)          N. Br. Raritan R.
:  Millstone River...
BKWN4     3.0/  3.2/  3.3/  3.4 :Blckwlls Mills(9ft)   Millstone River
:BKWN4md  3.3/  3.5/  3.7/  3.8 :Blckwlls Mills(10)    Millstone River
:BKWN4mj  5.6/  6.2/  6.6/  6.8 :Blckwlls Mills(15)    Millstone River
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Assunpink Creek...
TACN4     2.3/  2.4/  2.7/  3.0 :Trenton (8.5ft.)      Assunpink Creek
:TACN4md  2.7/  2.8/  3.2/  3.6 :Trenton (9.5)         Assunpink Creek
:TACN4mj  3.4/  3.6/  4.0/  4.4 :Trenton (11)          Assunpink Creek
.END
$$
NNNN


Flash Flood Guidance:

[attachment=54820:xhr3.png]


Attached Image


[attachment=54822:ffg_PA_12.gif]

[attachment=54823:ffg_PA_24.gif]


--------------------
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+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2009, 12:33 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(AnthonyS @ Sep 7 2009, 02:21 PM) *
Headwater Flood Guidance:

CODE
000
FOUS71 KRHA 071433
FFHPA2
HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2009

APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12/24-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES)
REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE
INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS.

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF
:
:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  12HR  24HR  HEADWATER NAME
:======= ====  ====  ====  ====  ====  ====================
:
: NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA...
:  SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...
:  Chenango River...
SHBN6     3.8/  4.0/  4.0/  4.0/  4.3 :Sherburne (8.5ft.)
:SHBN6md  4.2/  4.4/  4.5/  4.5/  4.9 :Sherburne (9)
:SHBN6mj  5.8/  6.1/  6.2/  6.2/  6.6 :Sherburne (10.6)
:  Otselic River...
CINN6     4.9/  5.2/  5.5/  5.7/  6.1 :Cincinnatus (9ft.)
: ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table.
:  Cohocton River...
CMPN6     3.8/  4.5/  4.8/  4.9/  5.3 :Campbell (8ft.)
:CMPN6md  4.8/  5.7/  6.1/  6.3/  7.0 :Campbell (10)
:CMPN6mj  5.6/  6.8/  7.4/  7.7/  8.4 :Campbell (11)
:  Canisteo River...
WCRN6     4.3/  4.8/  5.2/  5.5/  5.6 :West Cameron (17ft)
:WCRN6md  4.6/  5.1/  5.5/  5.9/  5.9 :West Cameron (18)
:WCRN6mj  5.5/  6.3/  6.8/  7.4/  7.5 :West Cameron (21)
:  Towanda Creek...
MONP1     3.7/  3.7/  3.8/  4.3/  5.2 :Monroeton (15.5ft)
:MONP1md  4.2/  4.2/  4.4/  4.9/  6.1 :Monroeton (17)
:MONP1mj  4.9/  5.0/  5.2/  5.9/  7.6 :Monroeton (18.5)
:  Tunkhannock Creek...
TNKP1     3.3/  3.8/  4.4/  4.9/  5.8 :Tunkhannock (11ft.)
:TNKP1md  4.0/  4.6/  5.4/  6.0/  7.3 :Tunkhannock (14)
:TNKP1mj  4.6/  5.4/  6.4/  7.3/  8.4 :Tunkhannock (17)
:  Lackawanna River...
OFRP1     5.1/  5.7/  6.2/  6.6/  7.5 :Old Forge (11ft.)
:OFRP1md  5.8/  6.4/  7.0/  7.5/  8.4 :Old Forge (13)
:OFRP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Old Forge (16)
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  East Branch Delaware River...
MRGN6     4.1/  4.5/  5.1/  5.6/  6.4 :Margaretville (11ft)
:MRGN6md  4.7/  5.2/  5.9/  6.6/  7.6 :Margaretville (12)
:MRGN6mj  5.4/  5.9/  6.8/  7.8/  8.4 :Margaretville (13)
:  West Branch Delaware River...
WALN6     2.0/  3.4/  3.4/  3.5/  3.8 :Walton (9.5ft.)
:WALN6md  3.2/  5.4/  5.5/  5.6/  6.3 :Walton (14)
:WALN6mj  4.0/  6.6/  6.8/  7.0/  8.0 :Walton (16)
:  Beaverkill Creek...
CKFN6     3.3/  3.9/  4.5/  5.0/  5.8 :Cooks Falls (10ft.)
:CKFN6md  5.3/  6.5/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Cooks Falls (16)
:CKFN6mj  6.2/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Cooks Falls (18)
:  Lackawaxen River...
HWYP1     5.0/  5.4/  5.6/  5.8/  5.9 :Hawley (11ft.)
:HWYP1md  5.4/  5.9/  6.1/  6.3/  6.5 :Hawley (12)
:HWYP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Hawley (20)
:
: NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA...
:  SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...
:  Tioga River...
MFDP1     4.3/  4.5/  4.7/  5.4/  6.6 :Mansfield (12ft.)
:MFDP1md  4.7/  4.9/  5.2/  6.1/  7.6 :Mansfield (13)
:MFDP1mj  5.4/  5.6/  6.0/  7.1/  8.4 :Mansfield (14)
:  Penns Creek...
PNCP1     3.4/  3.7/  4.1/  4.3/  4.6 :Penns Creek (8ft.)
:PNCP1md  4.0/  4.6/  5.0/  5.3/  5.6 :Penns Creek (10)
:PNCP1mj  4.9/  5.6/  6.2/  6.7/  7.2 :Penns Creek (12)
:  Frankstown Branch Juniata River...
WIBP1     3.1/  3.2/  3.7/  4.0/  4.5 :Williamsburg (12ft)
:WIBP1md  3.3/  3.5/  4.0/  4.2/  4.9 :Williamsburg (13)
:WIBP1mj  3.7/  3.9/  4.5/  4.8/  5.6 :Williamsburg (15)
:  Little Juniata River...
SPKP1     3.2/  3.5/  4.0/  4.3/  5.0 :Spruce Creek (8ft.)
:SPKP1md  3.7/  4.1/  4.7/  5.2/  6.1 :Spruce Creek (10)
:SPKP1mj  5.0/  5.6/  6.5/  7.2/  8.4 :Spruce Creek (14)
:  Aughwick Creek...
SLYP1     3.8/  3.9/  4.0/  4.2/  4.8 :Shirleysburg (10ft.)
:SLYP1md  4.6/  4.7/  4.8/  5.1/  5.7 :Shirleysburg (12)
:SLYP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Shirleysburg (20)
:  Sherman Creek...
SMDP1     3.4/  3.6/  4.0/  4.1/  4.8 :Shermans Dale (9ft)
:SMDP1md  4.1/  4.4/  4.8/  4.9/  5.9 :Shermans Dale (11)
:SMDP1mj  6.1/  6.7/  7.4/  7.8/  8.4 :Shermans Dale (16)
:  Conodoguinet Creek...
HGSP1     4.7/  4.7/  4.7/  4.7/  4.9 :Hogestown (8ft.)
:HGSP1md  5.8/  5.8/  5.8/  5.9/  6.1 :Hogestown (10)
:HGSP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.1/  7.2/  7.6 :Hogestown (12)
:  Yellow Breeches Creek...
CPHP1     4.4/  4.5/  4.5/  4.6/  5.0 :Camp Hill (7ft.)
:CPHP1md  5.2/  5.3/  5.4/  5.5/  6.0 :Camp Hill (9)
:CPHP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Camp Hill (13)
:  Swatara Creek...
HTVP1     3.3/  3.3/  3.5/  3.7/  4.0 :Harper Tavern (9ft.)
:HTVP1md  4.3/  4.4/  4.6/  4.9/  5.3 :Harper Tavern (12)
:HTVP1mj  5.5/  5.6/  5.9/  6.3/  7.0 :Harper Tavern (15)
:  Conestoga River...
LNCP1     3.4/  3.5/  3.6/  3.9/  4.5 :Lancaster (11ft.)
:LNCP1md  4.0/  4.2/  4.4/  4.7/  5.4 :Lancaster (13)
:LNCP1mj  4.7/  4.9/  5.2/  5.6/  6.3 :Lancaster (15)
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Schuylkill River...
LGVP1     3.0/  3.2/  3.2/  3.4/  3.8 :Landingville (8ft)
:LGVP1md  3.7/  4.0/  4.1/  4.5/  5.3 :Landingville (12)
:LGVP1mj  4.2/  4.6/  4.8/  5.3/  6.2 :Landingville (14)
:
: NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA...
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Schuylkill River...
BREP1     4.3/  4.6/  5.2/  5.6/  6.3 :Berne (12ft.)
:BREP1md  5.4/  5.7/  6.5/  7.0/  8.1 :Berne (14)
:BREP1mj  6.5/  6.9/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Berne (16)
:  Bush Kill...
SHOP1     6.1/  6.4/  6.5/  6.6/  6.9 :Shoemakers (6ft.)
:SHOP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.3/  7.5/  7.8 :Shoemakers (7)
:SHOP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Shoemakers (8)
:  Brodhead Creek...
MNSP1     5.6/  6.2/  7.0/  7.3/  8.0 :Minisink Hills(10ft)
:MNSP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Minisink Hills(12)
:MNSP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Minisink Hills(15)
:  Little Lehigh Creek...
APAP1     4.4/  4.7/  5.2/  6.0/  7.2 :Allentown-10th (8ft)
:APAP1md  5.4/  5.8/  6.4/  7.6/  8.4 :Allentown-10th (10)
:APAP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Allentown-10th (12)
:  Perkiomen Creek...
GRAP1     2.9/  3.5/  3.7/  4.4/  5.4 :Graterford (11ft.)
:GRAP1md  3.4/  4.1/  4.4/  5.2/  6.5 :Graterford (13)
:GRAP1mj  4.1/  5.0/  5.4/  6.6/  8.4 :Graterford (16)
:  Neshaminy Creek...
LNGP1     2.5/  3.0/  3.0/  3.4/  4.3 :Langhorne (9ft.)
:LNGP1md  2.8/  3.3/  3.4/  3.8/  4.7 :Langhorne (10)
:LNGP1mj  3.3/  3.9/  4.1/  4.5/  5.8 :Langhorne (12)
:  Chester Creek...
CHSP1     2.4/  2.5/  2.7/  3.4/  4.6 :Chester (8ft.)
:CHSP1md  2.9/  3.0/  3.4/  4.1/  5.7 :Chester (10)
:CHSP1mj  4.2/  4.4/  4.8/  6.0/  8.4 :Chester (14)
:  West Branch Brandywine Creek...
MODP1     5.8/  6.1/  6.5/  6.8/  8.4 :Modena (9ft)
:MODP1md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Modena (10)
:MODP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4 :Modena (12)
:  East Branch Brandywine Creek...
DWNP1     2.6/  2.7/  2.7/  2.9/  3.7 :Downingtown (7ft)
:DWNP1md  3.1/  3.1/  3.2/  3.5/  4.3 :Downingtown (8)
:DWNP1mj  3.5/  3.6/  3.7/  3.9/  4.9 :Downingtown (9)
:  Brandywine Creek...
CDFP1     2.3/  2.8/  3.3/  3.5/  4.2 :Chadds Ford (9ft.)
:CDFP1md  2.8/  3.6/  4.1/  4.3/  5.3 :Chadds Ford (11)
:CDFP1mj  3.6/  4.6/  5.3/  5.5/  6.9 :Chadds Ford (13)
:  Christina River...
CHBD1     2.6/  2.7/  3.0/  3.8/  5.3 :Coochs Brdg(10.5ft)
:CHBD1md  3.2/  3.4/  3.9/  5.0/  7.1 :Coochs Brdg(11.5)
:CHBD1mj  4.3/  4.6/  5.2/  6.9/  8.4 :Coochs Brdg(12.5)
:  White Clay Creek...
DPKD1     2.3/  2.3/  2.6/  3.2/  4.4 :Delaware Pk (13ft)
:DPKD1md  3.3/  3.4/  3.7/  4.5/  6.5 :Delaware Pk (15)
:DPKD1mj  4.8/  5.0/  5.4/  6.9/  8.4 :Delaware Pk (16.5)
:  Red Clay Creek...
RCCD1     2.8/  3.0/  3.3/  3.9/  5.2 :Wooddale (7ft)
:RCCD1md  3.5/  3.7/  4.2/  4.8/  6.7 :Wooddale (8.5)
:RCCD1mj  4.2/  4.5/  4.9/  5.8/  8.4 :Wooddale (10)
.END

UPPER DELAWARE BASIN WATER SUPPLY GUIDANCE

APPROXIMATE RUNOFF (IN MILLIONS OF GALLONS) PRODUCED FROM EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING 6-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN INCHES)...

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/QMXC1/QMXC2/QMXC3/QMXC4/QMXC5
.B1 /QMXC6
:                 RAINFALL
:IDENT    0.1    0.5    1.0    2.0     3.0     5.0   LOCATION
:======= ===== ====== ====== ====== ======= =======  ================
CANN6DEL    22/    32/   494/  1420/   2366/   6296 :CANNONSVILLE-456sqmi
DWNN6DEL    18/    18/   132/  1101/   2482/   8686 :PEPACTON-372sqmi
LWKP1WPK    11/    11/    11/   518/   1078/   3867 :WALLENPAUPACK-228sqm
NVRN6NVR    04/    04/    47/   265/    556/   1833 :NEVERSINK-93sqmi
.END

==================================================
==============
         EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT
     NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION
==================================================
==============
NWS Binghamton Service area...
  Lackawanna River at Archbald, PA
.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:GageID   1hr   3hr   6hr  12hr rainfall for indicated stages
ARHP1     4.7/  4.8/  5.2/  6.0 :Archbald (8ft.)
:ARHP1md  5.3/  5.4/  5.9/  6.9 :Archbald (9)
:ARHP1mj  5.9/  6.1/  6.6/  7.9 :Archbald (10)
.END
  Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF...
.E ARHP1 0906 E DC0909062047/DH23/HGIFX/DIH3/2.1/2.2/2.2/2.2/2.2/2.2
.E1 /2.2/2.2

  Lackawanna River at Scranton (Parker St.), PA
.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:GageID   1hr   3hr   6hr  12hr rainfall for indicated stages
PKIP1     3.8/  3.8/  3.9/  4.2 :Scranton (6ft.)
:PKIP1md  4.0/  4.1/  4.2/  4.5 :Scranton (7)
:PKIP1mj  4.3/  4.4/  4.5/  4.9 :Scranton (8)
.END
  Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF...
.E PKIP1 0906 E DC0909062047/DH23/HGIFX/DIH3/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8
.E1 /1.8/1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------

$$
NNNN


CODE
000
FOUS71 KRHA 071433
FFHNJ1
HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2009

APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES)
REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT
THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS.

.B RHA 090907 Z DH12/DC0909071433 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF
:
:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  12HR  HEADWATER NAME        STREAM
:======= ====  ====  ====  ====  ====================  ==================
:
: NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA...
:  Ramapo River...
MAHN4     5.7/  6.2/  6.5/  6.7 :Mahwah (8ft.)         Ramapo River
:MAHN4md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Mahwah (9)            Ramapo River
:MAHN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Mahwah (12)           Ramapo River
:  Hohokus Brook...
HOHN4     2.1/  2.4/  3.0/  4.1 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft.)      Hohokus Brook
:  Saddle River...
LODN4     2.4/  2.7/  3.5/  3.7 :Lodi (6ft.)           Saddle River
:LODN4md  2.8/  3.2/  4.0/  4.3 :Lodi (7)              Saddle River
:LODN4mj  3.2/  3.6/  4.7/  4.9 :Lodi (8)              Saddle River
:  Rahway River...
SPGN4     2.8/  2.9/  3.0/  3.7 :Springfield (5.5ft)   Rahway River
:
: NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA...
:  PASSAIC BASIN...
:  Passaic River...
CAMN4     3.8/  4.1/  5.1/  5.9 :Chatham (6ft.)        Passaic River
:CAMN4md  5.0/  5.5/  6.7/  8.0 :Chatham (7.2)         Passaic River
:CAMN4mj  6.0/  6.5/  7.4/  8.0 :Chatham (8.2)         Passaic River
:  Rockaway River...
BNTN4     6.4/  6.8/  6.9/  7.0 :Boonton Abv. (5ft.)   Rockaway River
:BNTN4md  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Boonton Abv. (6)      Rockaway River
:BNTN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Boonton Abv. (7)      Rockaway River
:  Whippany River...
WHIN4     4.2/  4.4/  4.8/  5.0 :Morristown (6ft.)     Whippany River
:  RARITAN BASIN..
:  South Branch Raritan River...
STTN4     4.1/  4.3/  4.4/  4.8 :Stanton (8ft.)        S. Br. Raritan R.
:STTN4md  5.4/  5.8/  5.8/  6.3 :Stanton (10)          S. Br. Raritan R.
:STTN4mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Stanton (12)          S. Br. Raritan R.
:  North Branch Raritan River...
RRTN4     3.7/  4.1/  4.4/  5.0 :Raritan (10ft.)       N. Br. Raritan R.
:RRTN4md  4.8/  5.3/  5.7/  6.5 :Raritan (12)          N. Br. Raritan R.
:RRTN4mj  6.3/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0 :Raritan (15)          N. Br. Raritan R.
:  Millstone River...
BKWN4     3.0/  3.2/  3.3/  3.4 :Blckwlls Mills(9ft)   Millstone River
:BKWN4md  3.3/  3.5/  3.7/  3.8 :Blckwlls Mills(10)    Millstone River
:BKWN4mj  5.6/  6.2/  6.6/  6.8 :Blckwlls Mills(15)    Millstone River
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Assunpink Creek...
TACN4     2.3/  2.4/  2.7/  3.0 :Trenton (8.5ft.)      Assunpink Creek
:TACN4md  2.7/  2.8/  3.2/  3.6 :Trenton (9.5)         Assunpink Creek
:TACN4mj  3.4/  3.6/  4.0/  4.4 :Trenton (11)          Assunpink Creek
.END
$$
NNNN


Flash Flood Guidance:

[attachment=54820:xhr3.png]


Attached Image


[attachment=54822:ffg_PA_12.gif]

[attachment=54823:ffg_PA_24.gif]


Thank you and im suprised how high they are!


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irishbri74
post Sep 7 2009, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 7 2009, 02:33 PM) *
Thank you and im suprised how high they are!


im not.. hasnt rained in a while, so the ground has had time to dry up a bit


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SnowMan11
post Sep 7 2009, 01:46 PM
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12z GFS, 12z Nam and 12z GGEM has a lot of rain for the area from Wednesday - Friday.


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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 7 2009, 02:11 PM
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NWS Mt. Holly recognizes the threat of heavy rain, with the following forecast for Cape May:
QUOTE
Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a east wind between 15 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 65. East wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Further north, they only have a total of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. NWS Upton still does not show rain around this time frame. Below is Mt. Holly's discussion on this storm:

QUOTE
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL LOW IS THAT IT WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AROUND THE DELMARVA LATITUDE. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE WESTERNMOST TRACK SOLUTION WITH THIS NIGHT RUN WHILE THE GFS LOOKS CLOSER TO BOTH CANADIAN MODELS AS WELL AS THE UKMET. SO WHILE THIS FORECAST IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC, WE HAVE CAUGHT UP PER SE TO THE GUIDANCE WHICH THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS GOING FARTHER AND FARTHER NW WITH EACH SOUNDING RUN. IF ANYTHING, THIS MODEL RUN SOLUTION, IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE. EVEN GOING WITH THE GFS ITS PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTH CAROLINA (THE OLD EURO TOO) IS GOING TO BE TOO FAR WEST. IRONICALLY IT IS THE WRF-NMM WHICH LOOKS THE BEST AS OF NOW, BUT THEN HAS THE STRONGEST 500MB FCST SOLUTION WHICH IN TURN PULLS THE SFC LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST AND MOST FORCING FEATURES ARE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FARTHER TO THE WEST AS WELL THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, BUT HERE GOES. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING ANY SHORT WAVE INDUCED SHOWERS TO END BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAROLINA LOW SHOULD BE EDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SHUNTING EAST PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD PREVENT PCPN FROM GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. WE DID BRING POPS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NW THAN THE GFS MEASURABLE LINE AS THE MODEL WAS SHOWING SOME MID LVL QVEC CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE WEST. WE ARE EXPECTING A DECREASE IN PCPN CHANCES AS TUESDAY CONTINUES AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE THE DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A MOISTURE POOL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS OFTEN NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR CLEARING. NEITHER IS A REX BLOCK CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOES, WE WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE MODEL RUNS AND SEE HOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARE TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. WHILE WE BELIEVE THE 7" OF PCPN THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING FOR SBY IS TOO HIGH, OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H2.5 JET AND HAVE A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FORECAST. AS OF TODAY THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WOULD FALL IN OUR LEAST FLOOD PRONE AREAS IF THEY AFFECT ANY OF OUR CWA AT ALL.


Mt. Holly discussion link

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 7 2009, 02:12 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 7 2009, 02:23 PM
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Latest radar of the storm:

Attached Image
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2009, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 7 2009, 04:11 PM) *
NWS Mt. Holly recognizes the threat of heavy rain, with the following forecast for Cape May:

Further north, they only have a total of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. NWS Upton still does not show rain around this time frame. Below is Mt. Holly's discussion on this storm:
Mt. Holly discussion link


I can see that looking at the latest WV's over the area. We would be placed in the left front quadrant.. That not only will add lift but that nice ULL to the west will help enhance. The flow itself is off the ocean right now so everything seems to be settig up for a rain event. Mt. Holly completely changed their forecast now having us under rain for the rest of the week! Some gusty winds may be possible wednesday if we get the tight pressure gradient.


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BtownWxWatcher
post Sep 7 2009, 05:04 PM
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smile.gif September 7-11 2009 East Coast Rain Storm Forecast

Attached Image

There is a low pressure area just off the North Carolina coast bringing rain currently to North Carolina and Virginia, here is what model guidance is saying so far.

12z GFS:Brings the system over cape hatteras and then slows it down keeping it just off the Mid Atlantic coast giving them good rains, before slowly moving northeast staying just off the coast. Gives the DCA/BWI/PHI/NYC area 1-2 inches of rain and the delmarva 3-7 inches of rain.
12z NAM:Takes this just off the coast and then dissapates this but not before giving a widespread 2-6 inches of rain in the Mid Atlantic region.
12z GGEM:Moves this slowly and low stays right near the coast and eventually the main low goes inland, gives the major cities a good 2-3 inches of rain and a good several inches in the delmarva. The main shaft of rain moves north into the interior northeast.
12z UKMET:Keeps low off the coast and gives the Mid Atlantic rain.
12z ECM:Keeps low near the coast.

For the 12z guidance, I would have to go with the GFS/NAM/ECM in terms of precipitation and
track.

I am expecting a track going from near cape hatteras then slowly moving up the coast until getting shafted out to sea near southern New England sparing them of heavy rain, this should gradually weaken as it starts to head north and east. For rainfall, I generally agree with NWS/HPC means so I am expecting a widespread 1-3 inches of rain for all of the major cities except for Boston and a potential area of over 3 inches of rain in the delmarva region. There could be some breezy conditions near the coastal areas as well with this storm, you can see my
map and some of the details above.

So that is my forecast and I am sticking too it.

Comments would be appreciated.

This post has been edited by BtownWxWatcher: Sep 7 2009, 05:05 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2009, 05:31 PM
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Sorry Btown... But the only thing i see against what you say is that the main low itself is just to the east of wilmington NC. So it will not just go near hatteras and then up the coast but rather inland.

Attached Image

Also here is the steering currents for the area.
Attached Image


So as for rainfall. Since we are in the left front quadrant of the jet moving in and with extra lift being added from the low to move over to the mid atlantic. This all together will make for a heavy rain threat that would be further west, not by much, than what you drew.


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post Sep 7 2009, 05:42 PM
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I will have a full write up/map sometime this evening. smile.gif
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