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> Dec. 31-Jan. 6 MW/OV/GL/Mid Atl/NE Lake Effect Snow OBS, Last minute forecasts and observations
LoganTyler
post Dec 31 2009, 04:29 AM
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Lake Effect snow is underway over the UP of Michigan with Lake Effect Snow Warnings in effect, thus an observations thread is necessary. This will also be a prolonged event, especially over the eastern lakes of Erie and Ontario. The date will run thru Monday, January 4th as of now, but this may need to be extended at some point...

Take it away guys...

This post has been edited by LoganTyler: Jan 5 2010, 11:58 PM


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A.S. in Business Administration-- Broome Comm. College '08
B.S. in Accounting-- Binghamton University '10
M.B.A. in Public Accounting-- SUNY Oswego '12
M.S. in Forensic Accounting-- SUNY Brockport '13
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 31 2009, 04:33 AM
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QUOTE(LoganTyler @ Dec 31 2009, 04:29 AM) *
Lake Effect snow is underway over the UP of Michigan with Lake Effect Snow Warnings in effect, thus an observations thread is necessary. This will also be a prolonged event, especially over the eastern lakes of Erie and Ontario. The date will run thru Monday, January 4th as of now, but this may need to be extended at some point...

Take it away guys...

BGm is saying 280-310 flow most of the evnt, i posted it in the other thread lol Hope we can pull some good snow out..
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LoganTyler
post Dec 31 2009, 04:34 AM
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NWS Binghamton for Central NY...

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVR SRN ONTARIO BCMS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING CYCLONE NR CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. FLOW APPEARS TO WAFFLE FM W-SW DRG THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH H8 TEMPS STILL FAIRLY WARM...HV A HARD BELIEVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LK EFFECT WILL KICK IN ACRS CWA THRU 00Z SAT. COLDEST AIR WILL LKLY HANG BACK TO AFFECT LK ERIE/EXTREME WRN LK ONTARIO DRG THE DAY FRIDAY AND HV A MINIMAL IMPACT ON FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR WRN/NRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY AS H8 TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO -12C. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN WILL RMN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH LKLY POPS OVR FAR NORTH DRG THE DAY AND CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

AFT 00Z SAT PROLONGED PD OF LK SNOWS LOOKS TO SET UP ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -15C BY SAT MRNG WITH DELTA T/S > 13C BY THIS POINT. FLOW INITIALLY APPEARS TO BE FM 270-290 DEGREES BTWN 00Z-06Z AND THEN VEERS TO 280-300 DIRECTION. INVERSION DEPTH INCREASES TO NR 750MB BY 12Z SATURDAY AND OMEGA FIELDS ALSO INCREASE.

STILL TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF INTRICACIES OF LK EFFECT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HWVR...POTENTIAL LOOKS TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ACRS FAVORED SNOW BELTS OF UPSTATE NY THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT...FLOW LOOKS TO ALIGN BTWN 280-310 FOR MOST OF THE EVENT AFFECTING ANYWHERE FM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO ERN SXNS OF THE FINGER LKS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO FOR THESE REGIONS. HWVR HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FURTHER DOWN THE LINE.


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 31 2009, 04:36 AM
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Friday Night: Light snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Light snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 25. West wind between 9 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


pops keep going higher, im liking it

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...Field2=-74.9928
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 31 2009, 04:41 AM
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Thats it im changing my NWS lol How can Albany not mention the word Lake effect once mad.gif
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LoganTyler
post Dec 31 2009, 04:46 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 31 2009, 04:36 AM) *
pops keep going higher, im liking it

Latest Albany AFD mentions almost nothing WRT Lake Effect potential over Herkimer county. Instead, they are tied up with the potential for a few inches over the far north pertaining to the main SLP that is going to flatten parts of New England.

Essentially why I say you are best served to keep in touch with NWS Binghamton and Buffalo for everything Lake Effect across Upstate. Maybe Albany should consider handing the Herkimer County Zone over to Binghamton to become part of our County Warning Area where you are more welcome.


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 31 2009, 04:55 AM
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QUOTE(LoganTyler @ Dec 31 2009, 04:46 AM) *
Latest Albany AFD mentions almost nothing WRT Lake Effect potential over Herkimer county. Instead, they are tied up with the potential for a few inches over the far north pertaining to the main SLP that is going to flatten parts of New England.

Essentially why I say you are best served to keep in touch with NWS Binghamton and Buffalo for everything Lake Effect across Upstate. Maybe Albany should consider handing the Herkimer County Zone over to Binghamton to become part of our County Warning Area where you are more welcome.

laugh.gif Thank you very much appreciated wink.gif Yea i seen a map 1 day that said im the last county to the west that is considerd LES warning material..1 funny thing is, i actually had 1 LES warning this yr and didnt see a flurry..That shows u all u need to knw..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Dec 31 2009, 04:55 AM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 31 2009, 05:08 AM
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just updated

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LoganTyler
post Dec 31 2009, 05:15 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 31 2009, 04:55 AM) *
laugh.gif Thank you very much appreciated wink.gif Yea i seen a map 1 day that said im the last county to the west that is considerd LES warning material..1 funny thing is, i actually had 1 LES warning this yr and didnt see a flurry..That shows u all u need to knw..

Lol, I know what you mean. Personally, I've followed the LES Events for a while now, and I've seen Albany blow a LES forecast several times, moreso in recent memory too (Both over and under). Because their service area is very sheltered from the Lake Effect Snow Events, with only Herkimer and occasionally Hamilton counties that are affected, they aren't really seasoned Lake Effect pro's IMO, atleast not with the likes of Binghamton, and Buffalo as well, who deal with Lake Effect on a regular basis throughout the course of the winter.

At any rate, regardless of what NWS Albany says (Or should I say... doesn't say), I like your potential to pick up several inches with this upcoming event. With the latest trend in the models for a more easterly solution to the main SLP, I've pretty much thrown in the towel now for much, if any, synoptic snow across Central NY. Therefore, I'll be turning my attention to the LES potential the next day or so, and will attempt to hammer the event out on paper with a map sometime Today hopefully, or by Friday Morning at the latest before things get going.

This post has been edited by LoganTyler: Dec 31 2009, 05:25 AM


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A.S. in Business Administration-- Broome Comm. College '08
B.S. in Accounting-- Binghamton University '10
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M.S. in Forensic Accounting-- SUNY Brockport '13
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NearTheCircle
post Dec 31 2009, 08:42 AM
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I live in the secondary snowbelt in NE Ohio and the Cleveland NWS says I could receive substantial snow from lake effect starting Friday through Wednesday.
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WNYLakeEffect
post Dec 31 2009, 09:15 AM
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Cool cool.gif
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Source

The Mesoscale models are just coming into range, but they're starting to set up very nice potential for a Huron Connection. At least now, it's 10X better than this past event for myself.


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Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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tswigs
post Dec 31 2009, 09:15 AM
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Watchin this close here in Erie, Pa. This one looks very exciting. Anybody want to take a guess at amounts yet?
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LEinCLE
post Dec 31 2009, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(tswigs @ Dec 31 2009, 09:15 AM) *
Watchin this close here in Erie, Pa. This one looks very exciting. Anybody want to take a guess at amounts yet?

18" widespread. 36+" 'where squalls persist'. And they'll persist - this one could go well into Wednesday for the eastern lakes.
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WNYLakeEffect
post Dec 31 2009, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(tswigs @ Dec 31 2009, 09:15 AM) *
Watchin this close here in Erie, Pa. This one looks very exciting. Anybody want to take a guess at amounts yet?

Finally someone from Erie!! Welcome to the forums. smile.gif

I won't go to amounts yet, but Erie could certainly be in for an interesting few days.


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Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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tswigs
post Dec 31 2009, 09:26 AM
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Thanks. We recieved a good foot of snow earlier in the week from the lake effect. It's actually been a bit below average for snowfall in our area. I think if we get what's comin, we could pull even. I'll have to check.

-Yep, Normal to date is 33.7, we are at 28.5 now.

This post has been edited by tswigs: Dec 31 2009, 09:32 AM
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MIW
post Dec 31 2009, 09:39 AM
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The title only needs the GL, Since all of the states affected are touching one of the GL.


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MichelleOH
post Dec 31 2009, 09:43 AM
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Doesn't it say GL in the title or did that just happen?
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MIW
post Dec 31 2009, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(MichelleOH @ Dec 31 2009, 10:43 AM) *
Doesn't it say GL in the title or did that just happen?

But it also says MW/OV/GL/NE, it only has to be GL


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Removed_Member_nicnic_*
post Dec 31 2009, 09:52 AM
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WOW, Just LES+ Weak disturbance snow accumulation below.

Attached File  Just_LES.bmp ( 469.8K ) Number of downloads: 101


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MichelleOH
post Dec 31 2009, 09:53 AM
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Oh, I see what you're saying. Sorry, coffee hasn't kicked in yet. wacko.gif
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