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> July 22-27 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 2 Moderate Risk Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Jul 19 2012, 02:29 PM
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Very rare sight from SPC today. They have a day 7 and 8 outlined area in the 4-8 day outlook.

Attached Image

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FOR THE D4-D5
PERIOD...WITH MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE.
FORCING FOR STORMS...ANYWHERE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL BE WARM ADVECTION...WITH A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WITH MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREATS EACH DAY.

AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON D6...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE OVER ND AND NRN MN TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING ACROSS MN/WI/MI ON WED/D7 AND
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION BY THU/D8. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS STRONG FLOW AND SHEAR FOR
SEVERE INTO AN AREA THAT WILL BE UNSTABLE. THIS GENERAL SOLUTION IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. WHILE POSITION ERROR MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 200
MILES WITH THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT...THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR AN
OUTLOOK THIS FAR OUT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS AS THE EVENT NEARS.


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jul 26 2012, 01:21 PM


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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wxman1952
post Jul 19 2012, 10:24 PM
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Hope so, I missed out on most of the rain in the area last night. Still need more though I'm thankful for the .29" I did get.


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Gilbertfly
post Jul 20 2012, 09:29 AM
Post #3




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LOT...

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
333 AM CDT

NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISING 595/596DM HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY WITH ECMWF SHOWING H85
TEMPS OF 25C PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO GFS WHICH KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. COULD
SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A MORE
ROBUST FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WONT DIG TOO DEEPLY INTO
CONVECTIVE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT SHOULD THINGS PAN OUT COULD
SEE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...IF NOT HERE THEN POSSIBLY
NEARBY...
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Juniorrr
post Jul 21 2012, 09:10 PM
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Yesterday a local met said that a slight pattern change will increase rain chances for next week so maybe we will get some needed rain after the anti rain bubble around Dayton.
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snowlover2
post Jul 21 2012, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 21 2012, 10:10 PM) *
Yesterday a local met said that a slight pattern change will increase rain chances for next week so maybe we will get some needed rain after the anti rain bubble around Dayton.


Sounds like we could be in MCS territory all week.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jul 22 2012, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-071>074-080-082-088-
231200-
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HIGHLAND-PIKE-SCIOTO-
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY.
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Juniorrr
post Jul 22 2012, 04:02 PM
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Day 2
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snowlover2
post Jul 22 2012, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 22 2012, 05:02 PM) *
Day 2


Nice surprize to see the slight risk shifted far enough south to be in our area.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2012, 04:44 PM
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LOT's HWO being pretty aggressive with only a 5% chance of severe per SPC...

QUOTE
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A LIMITED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY STORMS DO
INDEED DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THERE WOULD BE A FAIRLY
HIGH PROBABILITY OF THEM BECOMING SEVERE
.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2012, 04:48 PM
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Izzi wrote today's afternoon AFD for LOT, in case you didn't notice by the bolded portion below laugh.gif

QUOTE
MONDAY`S FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH POTENTIAL LANDMINES JUST
WAITING TO CAUSE A MASSIVE BUST.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE
NUMERICAL OUTPUT WITH UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD LEAVING US ON CUSP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND BENEATH THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
WHAT WOULD TEND TO BE EXPECTED CONCEPTUALLY AND THAT IS AN ABUNDANCE
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING. IF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ARE
LESS THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WOULD BE A DARN
GOOD BET
...CONVERSELY SHOULD CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 90. GIVEN THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS (925MB TEMPS AOA 30C) DECIDED TO KEEP FORECAST TEMPS
SKEWED A BIT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF POSSIBILITIES AND GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IF MOISTURE POOLS ALONG WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA OR TEMPS GET OUT OF HAND THEN ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA...BUT GIVEN SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT HOIST ANY
HEADLINES TODAY.

ANYWHERE STRONG HEATING TAKES PLACE MONDAY THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
...PARTICULARLY
ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK OF BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE 35KT+
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. GREATER CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO NOCTURNAL WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
50KT+ SPEED MAX CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY CLASSIC
SET-UP FOR A NW FLOW SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE MONDAY NIGHT HERE OR
NEARBY
...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
(EXCESSIVE?) RAINFALL WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT
.



--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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HassayWx2306
post Jul 22 2012, 05:15 PM
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I'm back school work and vacation and finally nice to see everyone again. Looks like a good week coming in storms. smile.gif
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Gilbertfly
post Jul 22 2012, 06:19 PM
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LOT...watching tonight a little closer now...not quite severe chatta ATM....

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...

A FEW CHANGES ON 22Z UPDATE. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING MIDLEVEL WAVE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA
CLUSTERS AFFECTING TRACON AREA OVERNIGHT.
THUS ADDED VCTS AT TAF
SITES ROUGHLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO PREDAWN HRS. ALSO...STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT ONCE TO JUST ABOVE 1000 FT OVERNIGHT. ADDED LLWS TO
COVER THIS.


recovered nicely to 90 degree....DP only at 63...we'll see how she goes...

to add....Skilling has been honing in on tomorrow night for quite a few days via FB
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Gilbertfly
post Jul 22 2012, 06:56 PM
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CAPE pushin' 3k in parts of N IL....no cap....just need a trigger
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2012, 07:23 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Jul 22 2012, 06:56 PM) *
CAPE pushin' 3k in parts of N IL....no cap....just need a trigger

SBCAPE is showing a fair capping inversion, but the supercell composite and derecho composite- both are looking pretty OK for some storms.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Gilbertfly
post Jul 22 2012, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 22 2012, 07:23 PM) *
SBCAPE is showing a fair capping inversion, but the supercell composite and derecho composite- both are looking pretty OK for some storms.


yeah...looks like we'll have to wait for the nocturnal jet to get the juice flowing
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snowlover2
post Jul 22 2012, 08:03 PM
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Gee i wonder where the MCS track is setting up?


Attached Image


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2012, 08:27 PM
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ABC 7 Chicago Weather Center posted a picture of rainfall forecasts on their Facebook page, if someone can get the picture up here, I'm sure people would be interested in seeing it.
I can't get it on here thanks to my phone...


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2012, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 22 2012, 08:27 PM) *
ABC 7 Chicago Weather Center posted a picture of rainfall forecasts on their Facebook page, if someone can get the picture up here, I'm sure people would be interested in seeing it.
I can't get it on here thanks to my phone...

I
Here we are.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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wxman1952
post Jul 22 2012, 10:44 PM
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Looks like some nice rain for some. Hope I can get in on it too. I'm not too far anyway to be hoping lol.


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ontariolightning
post Jul 22 2012, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 22 2012, 09:03 PM) *
Gee i wonder where the MCS track is setting up?


Attached Image



Nice, I'm in the red!
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