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> July 11th - 14th Heavy Rain / Severe? MidAlt/NE, Forecasts, Discussions
phillyfan
post Jul 11 2017, 02:05 PM
Post #1




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Posts: 9,879
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From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
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Well let's do a general thread for this week I guess. Just for some general t-storms this week it seems like. Just had a quick ground wetter roll through now and a brief dampen the ground one an hour ago.

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

NJZ009-010-012-013-020-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-120800-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Ocean-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on Wednesday and Thursday, with the greater risk being on
Thursday. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s on
Wednesday afternoon and into the upper 90s on Thursday afternoon.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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phillyfan
post Jul 11 2017, 02:06 PM
Post #2




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Posts: 9,879
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Member No.: 12,448





Warning in south Jersey:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC001-011-015-033-111945-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0081.170711T1900Z-170711T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Atlantic County in southern New Jersey...
Northeastern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Salem County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 345 PM EDT

* At 300 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rosenhayn, or
near Millville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect damage to
trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Vineland, Millville, Cumberland, Buena, Estell Manor, Dorothy,
Mizpah, South Vineland, Rosenhayn, Fairton and Folsom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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New England Stor...
post Jul 11 2017, 09:58 PM
Post #3




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 262
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Member No.: 25,837





Well I got 1/2 inch of rain today. Most if not all of it came in the early morning hours. Look like a wet three days coming up. Maybe some severe weather on Thursday.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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LUCC
post Jul 12 2017, 07:22 AM
Post #4




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A nice cell came through around 4pm yesterday here, some L/T and torrential rain that lasted for about 15 minutes. Hopefully we get some today and the next couple days.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 12 2017, 10:08 AM
Post #5




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Member No.: 25,332





Stormy afternoon noon yesterday. Nothing severe, but several rounds. It hasn't been as warm as forecasted the last two days, both days in the low 80's not mid 80's. Were at 76F at 11 am today, with a cell or two just to the west. I see the more severe threat coming Thur-Fri.

UPDATE! Still cloudy and 76F at 1:26pm. It is a bit muggy with DP of 70.

It does, however, look quite toasty to my east and south around the cities.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 12 2017, 12:27 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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LUCC
post Jul 12 2017, 02:06 PM
Post #6




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It's a scorcher here today with mixed sun and clouds, radar doesn't look all that impressive.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 13 2017, 03:48 AM
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D2 Outlook

After having reviewed the 3K NAM, I'm inclined to think that the threat level may bump up a notch, especially along the Mason Dixon line.

Attached Image


We have very high dew points and humidity laden air mass. The short wave/front combo should be enough lift mechanism to allow the lower leveled shear to turn the column. With minimal to no Cap evident in the column, CAPE values should be 'up there'. We could see abrupt shift from left moving to right moving organized cells.



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 13 2017, 03:50 AM
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 13 2017, 06:13 AM
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Member No.: 23,320





Hope we get something notable today up here, you can literally wear the air this morning its so thick and juicy.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 13 2017, 08:46 AM
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And here it is, the first couple days where I wish the house had air conditioning. Currently 75F but DP must be 239. As Kenny Powers said, you're wearing this air. Two days of boomers Im'a guessing.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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phillyfan
post Jul 13 2017, 09:08 AM
Post #10




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 13 2017, 09:46 AM) *
And here it is, the first couple days where I wish the house had air conditioning. Currently 75F but DP must be 239. As Kenny Powers said, you're wearing this air. Two days of boomers Im'a guessing.

Currently at the Reading airport 87 with heat index of 96 and it's even cloudy this morning like the last 2 mornings.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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Miller A
post Jul 13 2017, 09:09 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 13 2017, 07:13 AM) *
Hope we get something notable today up here, you can literally wear the air this morning its so thick and juicy.


ahh, c'mon, don't sweat it!


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 13 2017, 09:50 AM
Post #12




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 13 2017, 10:08 AM) *
Currently at the Reading airport 87 with heat index of 96 and it's even cloudy this morning like the last 2 mornings.


Holy smokes. Were up to 78F, but man east of the apps will be smoky today.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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LUCC
post Jul 13 2017, 10:53 AM
Post #13




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Don't know how right this is but current reading is 97 with 111 heat index!!!
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...binsville%2C+nj


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Hail_on_Me
post Jul 13 2017, 11:00 AM
Post #14




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Member No.: 18,838





MD out for the whole tri-state HV and EPA regions. Watch likely.
6
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1303.html

This post has been edited by Hail_on_Me: Jul 13 2017, 11:01 AM
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gulfofslides
post Jul 13 2017, 11:04 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jul 13 2017, 11:53 AM) *
Don't know how right this is but current reading is 97 with 111 heat index!!!
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...binsville%2C+nj

nothing going on here 63 degrees and soupy
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 13 2017, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(Hail_on_Me @ Jul 13 2017, 12:00 PM) *
MD out for the whole tri-state HV and EPA regions. Watch likely.
6
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1303.html


It very well may hail on you. laugh.gif

LUCC you are currently in the center of the sun.

79F here now with a Dp of 72. soupy.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 13 2017, 11:21 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 13 2017, 11:41 AM
Post #17




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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





I'm surprised there is a slight risk as far south as it is today was fully expecting scattered convection but hey I'll take it anything to knock this humidity back a bit. Gotta love those days with the westerly wind we are managing ok out here with some clouds but many reports east and south of here sitting at 92-96 with a dp of 72-75. Now that's some heat right there.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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LUCC
post Jul 13 2017, 11:58 AM
Post #18




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Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 13 2017, 12:19 PM) *
It very well may hail on you. laugh.gif

LUCC you are currently in the center of the sun.

79F here now with a Dp of 72. soupy.

biggrin.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Black05GSR
post Jul 13 2017, 12:27 PM
Post #19




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From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
Member No.: 27,529





OT but long range GFS blink.gif







--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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phillyfan
post Jul 13 2017, 12:32 PM
Post #20




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Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Jul 13 2017, 01:27 PM) *
OT but long range GFS blink.gif






There were some runs a few days ago that showed something like this in 22nd-23rd time frame. Just a fantasy range GFS run.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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