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LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 06:57 AM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 17 2018, 06:43 AM) *
850mb temps this morning..

One of those times the 850mb level is below freezing even off the coast but its raining at the coasts..

It's raining here but snowing just 25 minutes north.

[attachment=344036:Map144.jpg]

10m winds. I thought would be coming from the south or southeast. They're actually coming from the ENE.

The case of the surface and 925mb level just not being cold enough.. Should get a changeover soon though once the coastal storm leaves but not mounting to much accumulations like interior.

[attachment=344037:Map145.jpg]


Warm tounge means business from NYC on east with this one. Be surprised if anyone NYC and points east see's any accumulation until you get into interior SNE
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288353 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 11:08 PM


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QUOTE(longislander @ Jan 16 2018, 10:56 PM) *
Now they are forecasting a band of freezing rain for long island.


Could be. At this point anything goes in terms of precip type for the NYC area. Temps right now hovering between 32-34 across NYC Metro.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288279 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 10:45 PM


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Given that this will be a mainly rain event for NYC on east anyway probably best if the coastal doesn't amount to much.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288268 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 07:49 AM


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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 16 2018, 07:26 AM) *
Short range GFS maps are atrocious. refrain from using them


Thats probably from the second storm so it may be accurate
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287775 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 11:12 PM


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QUOTE(HV Snowstorm @ Jan 15 2018, 11:03 PM) *
I think the GFS isn't handing elevation correctly, I've seen in the past it gives valleys much less when in reality this dry up it won't be that significant of a difference, I like the rgen look, maybe just a tad overdone, just barely though...


Yea GFS can tend to be a bit too dry and underestimate precip until the last moment but RGEM can sometimes over amp a bit, I would say 5-8 inches is a good call for your area right now
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287694 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:52 PM


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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 15 2018, 10:49 PM) *
GFS



The overall setup is now coming into agreement but there are still major individual differences for example RGEM has Scranton at 9.9 inches and GFS has Scranton at 2.8 inches.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287686 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:39 PM


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GFS is more west although not as far west as RGEM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287675 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:27 PM


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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 15 2018, 10:22 PM) *
Nearly 10" in Scranton, solid hit for NEPA... thermal issues for coast though



Probably too amped and far west but I think the overall picture is pretty clear the best snows will be from PA through interior SNE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287662 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:15 PM


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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 15 2018, 10:12 PM) *
Rain/snow line, why u be so close?

biggrin.gif


Thats what happens when the low really amps, I think your area is fine though.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287641 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:13 PM


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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 15 2018, 10:09 PM) *
Define interior, lol.


In this case looks like the classic I287 cutoff.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287638 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:02 PM


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RGEM really amped, will look great for interior.

Low almost goes over LI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287630 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:24 PM


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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 15 2018, 09:13 PM) *
Closer to the coast. Bombardier, permission to arm granted.

[Click to Animate]
[attachment=343862:namconus...33_trend.gif]


yep def closer to the coast this run but not as juicy QPF wise as the 12Z Run
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287608 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 09:12 PM


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NYC Metro gets a dry slot on the NAM again
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287597 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 03:32 PM


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QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Jan 15 2018, 03:30 PM) *
I-95ers (NY - South) typically don't do well with clipper systems. Granted this isn't a pure clipper but those Appalachian Mountains suck up all of moisture.


Yea although in this case I think possible precip type issues and the transfer creating a dry slot are more the issue for the NYC area than the clipper drying up.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287411 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 03:28 PM


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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 15 2018, 03:22 PM) *


Seems NYC gets nothing no matter the setup, the 12Z run NW suburbs got hit hard, this run all the precip wraps around the city and NW suburbs and Eastern LI do better.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287402 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 03:18 PM


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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 15 2018, 03:16 PM) *
Western New England wont like this run but Boston will, even NYC stays all or mostly frozen but appears to be dryslotted verbatim


Way East with the coastal, opposite of Euro.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287388 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 03:15 PM


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This run looking good all around, precip more NW but also looks colder for I95

Actually Coastal is way east which is why it's colder but basically misses everyone except Eastern NE. Inland areas do good with the overrunning.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287383 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 02:28 PM


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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 15 2018, 01:46 PM) *
Yikes... that's the kinda gradient that causes heartbreaks.


This has gone from a 1-3/2-4 inch area wide to a rainstorm for the coast and significant snowstorm inland. Definitely has changed
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287353 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 02:25 PM


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QUOTE(HV Snowstorm @ Jan 15 2018, 01:37 PM) *
Surprisingly HV into the Berkshires look like the jackpot here. Great trends last 24 hours, just great.


Yea this is suddenly looking great for your area
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287352 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:41 AM


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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Jan 15 2018, 10:15 AM) *
Not necessarily, if it falls as snow, it should stick because the ground is once again frozen after 3 nights of teens and low 20's. Wet bulbs should fall Tuesday night and we should be fine. Not a huge storm as it looks now but enough to cause some disruption. Probably the last opportunity until Feb. Today will be day 19 that stays below freezing. The record is 52 in 1880-81. Need to reach 40 to make the top ten list. Most modern winters to rival it were 1976-77 (45 days) and 1977-78 (42 days). All others headed way back.


True it's a close call and there isn't a lot of warm air int he upper levels but pretty much all the models are now agreeing the best snows are NW of the city with only an inch or so in the city. They could be off but I think it's partly due to the precip being too light which probably won't accumulate if temps are above freezing.

I sort of see this as a mix changing to snow situation so if the coastal bombs out sooner then it's a completely different story but I don't think the coast will get much if any accumulation from overrunning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287185 · Replies: · Views: 62,892

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:04 AM


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Although I think this storm will be too warm for much if any accumulation in NYC Metro, it is nice to see the Hudson Valley and NE PA finally get a good storm after they missed out on other storms this winter.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287159 · Replies: · Views: 62,892

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 10:56 PM


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GFS backs up RGEM and NAM, decent event for NE PA through Interior SNE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287037 · Replies: · Views: 62,892

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 10:10 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 14 2018, 10:00 PM) *
Yep been a concern for awhile you get any wave along this zone it will push in warmer air its a matter of where though sounds like pinging along the immediate coast and maybe rain on LI?

SE CT and SE MA and virtually all of RI seem to go over to rain on the NAM initially and then go to snow Im not sure about the skew t look yet.


RGEM at hour 48 has rain for LI and NYC and a mix just NW. RGEM tends to have a bit of a warm bias. Temps will likely crash for LI and coastal SNE once the coastal gets going but it likely starts as rain in these areas.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287013 · Replies: · Views: 62,892

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 09:57 PM


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I am concerned about precip type issues for NYC and the coast with this storm with the precip being kind of long duration but relatively light and surface temps around or above freezing. I think this will be a nice 2-4 inch event from NE PA through the Hudson Valley, with high end potential of up to 6 inches for these regions which haven't had much snow this winter.

SNE and possibly even Eastern LI could end up with a significant snowfall if the coastal really gets going early enough. That part is always a tricky forecast.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287002 · Replies: · Views: 62,892

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 10:57 PM


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GFS much more impressive this run.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286665 · Replies: · Views: 29,070

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