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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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My Content
29 Apr 2017
Well, TeleJ opened the coastal threat thread - so to fulfill my part of the bargain, I am opening this one.

SPC AC 290723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z


A few severe storms will be possible from parts of the lower Great
Lakes to the southeast states on Monday, with the highest likelihood
from West Virginia to parts of Pennsylvania.

An expansive closed low will continue lifting northeast towards the
Upper Great Lakes on Monday, with broad cyclonic flow enveloping a
majority of the contiguous US
. Within this flow, embedded impulses
will likely translate northeast across parts of the Midwest,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

...Gulf Coast to the Lower Great Lakes...
Along/ahead of a cold front pushing east, an expansive corridor of
showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the Gulf Coast
northward to the Ohio Valley Monday. Near the southern end of this
corridor, a few strong to marginally severe storms may be ongoing in
the morning, aided by rich low-level moisture and weak/moderate
buoyancy. However, these storms will likely weaken through the first
half of the day, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced
farther north.

Across the central Appalachians and northward, storms will likely
form/re-intensify along the surface front and/or a pre-frontal
trough during the afternoon hours. Strong mid-level flow and modest
veering with height will offer favorable low-level/deep-layer shear
for updraft organization. In terms of forecast buoyancy, cloud cover
may limit the amount of heating/destabilization over the region, and
most forecast soundings depict relatively narrow mixed-layer CAPE
profiles. Nonetheless, sufficient buoyancy for at least a few severe
storms, capable of strong winds, severe hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two, appears probable. Additionally, portions of the Marginal
(most likely West Virginia, northwest Virginia, and points
northward) may require an upgrade to Slight if confidence in
sufficient surface-based buoyancy
continues to increase

..Picca.. 04/29/2017

Of course, daytime heating would increase the threat, but I'm thinking that column mixing and lapse rates should do the bulk of the heavy work in this kind of set up.

30 Mar 2017
No thread yet for this threat. So, as if I were playing Monopoly, I might as well establish a "corner of the board"

GFS look

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29 Mar 2017
I've been watching this time period since I first noticed this outlook on the OPC maps

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It's starting to get within reasonable range to pay even more attention.

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27 Mar 2017
Models are converging on the idea of some sort of coastal system in this time frame. Could be some winter in there, for the folks in up state NY and N NE.

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Euro looks to be a bit colder than GFS - GFS seems to be its usual progressive self, ATTM
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Otherwise, a rainy time for the April Fools Day weekend.

I would downplay any potential for SN out of this, outside the aforementioned regions - I do believe that an "onion snow" is still in the making, perhaps much later than some would imagine.

18 Mar 2017
Maybe this doesn't provide much fireworks, but this has been looking a bit more of a threat with each passing model run.

I'll just show the 18z GFS for illustrative purpose, prev runs have been more south, but have come back north in increments.

Just thought we might need this space, eventually.

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