 Nov 17-19th MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days) Forecast |
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 Nov 13 2012, 03:14 PM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468  |
QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Nov 13 2012, 02:31 PM)  PV, What is happening between H168 and H240? With the 24 hour intervals I see I can't figure out how the storms are moving. Gets very confusing because I don't have access to the 6 hour intervals. Looks like the storm off the NC coast moves OTS at 192 but then back into Maine at 216. Also at H216 is that a clipper over OH / WV? Quick draft like drawing to ilustrate and help you visualize. Red is storm one; the one that comes frist. Blue is storm two, the one that comes right behind the first one. 
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Nov 13 2012, 03:16 PM
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#42
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 13 2012, 03:14 PM) Quick draft like drawing to ilustrate and help you visualize. Red is storm one; the one that comes frist. Blue is storm two, the one that comes right behind the first one. The first storm seems to have tropical energy with it, as the ECMWF shows it having a warm core. So, we could be dealing with a subtropical storm near the coast. QPF does hit the coast pretty nicely. The second storm is closer but so far is not as wet, and is totally extra-tropical; cold core. -------------------- |
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Nov 13 2012, 03:21 PM
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#43
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 172 Joined: 26-February 10 From: Jericho, NY Member No.: 22,049 |
Carlos, your red track looks somewhat like the GFS about 5 days before Sandy, if I am not mistaken.
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Nov 13 2012, 03:24 PM
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#44
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
QUOTE(Art on LI @ Nov 13 2012, 03:21 PM) Carlos, your red track looks somewhat like the GFS about 5 days before Sandy, if I am not mistaken. Itīs similar, but that is more or less, in a rough way, what the 12Z ECMWF run today just showed. -------------------- |
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Nov 13 2012, 03:51 PM
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#45
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,611 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
I like the path that the 12z EURO shows for storm #2, and I'm glad it has storm number two. I like that one for snow prospects. Arctic air looks to get involved finally with the NAO and AO both tanking extremely.
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Nov 13 2012, 04:11 PM
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#46
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,431 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 13 2012, 03:14 PM) Quick draft like drawing to ilustrate and help you visualize. Red is storm one; the one that comes frist. Blue is storm two, the one that comes right behind the first one. The 2nd potential system (blue) is a very good track for Snow in and around the Baltimore area just as long as there is sufficient Cold air in place prior to the LP's arrival. |
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Nov 13 2012, 06:26 PM
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#47
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,352 Joined: 31-December 09 Member No.: 20,664 |
So are we looking at 3 storms or 2 for the 17th-29th period? Its all really confusing to me.
-------------------- Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/8-9) |
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Nov 13 2012, 08:29 PM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,923 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 13 2012, 05:11 PM) The 2nd potential system (blue) is a very good track for Snow in and around the Baltimore area just as long as there is sufficient Cold air in place prior to the LP's arrival. QUOTE(NE MA Weather @ Nov 13 2012, 07:26 PM) So are we looking at 3 storms or 2 for the 17th-29th period? Its all really confusing to me. Wonder will we get our first snow in nova scotia hmm might be little to warm for that 
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Nov 13 2012, 09:42 PM
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,457 Joined: 31-January 09 From: Ulster County, NY Member No.: 17,327 |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 13 2012, 04:51 PM) I like the path that the 12z EURO shows for storm #2, and I'm glad it has storm number two. I like that one for snow prospects. Arctic air looks to get involved finally with the NAO and AO both tanking extremely. WOuldnt that be considerd a Miller B type track?? Or No????? |
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Nov 14 2012, 11:26 AM
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#50
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,254 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Sterling, VA Member No.: 21,381 |
GFS doesn't like this storm on the last run, light rain 40s-50s
-------------------- 09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6 11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7 Current DC snow drought: 742 days without 2"+ event as of 3/6/13 12-13 OCT 0.0 NOV T DEC 2.2 JAN 1.8 FEB 1.3 MAR 3.3 = 8.6 # of snowfall events: 9........# over 1": 3........# over 2": 1........largest: 3.3 Winter Storm Warnings: 2..... #1 for 5+" (actual: 0.0") ..... #2 for 10-14" (actual: 3.3") |
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Nov 14 2012, 11:51 AM
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,867 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Queens, NY Member No.: 16,816 |
CMC has a moderate rain event for the MA
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html |
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Nov 14 2012, 12:25 PM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,611 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 14 2012, 11:51 AM) CMC has a moderate rain event for the MA http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html this was primarily a rain event from the start. I don't see big issues with where the models are at right now. This is a day 4-6 event, let the models work out their problems now before we get into the short range period of 1-3 days before the event. |
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Nov 14 2012, 12:31 PM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,867 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Queens, NY Member No.: 16,816 |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 14 2012, 12:25 PM) this was primarily a rain event from the start. I don't see big issues with where the models are at right now. This is a day 4-6 event, let the models work out their problems now before we get into the short range period of 1-3 days before the event. I know this will be a primarily rain event, I just meant the CMC has much more rain where as the gfs basically has the storm OTS. This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Nov 14 2012, 12:32 PM |
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Nov 14 2012, 02:32 PM
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#54
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,611 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 14 2012, 12:31 PM) I know this will be a primarily rain event, I just meant the CMC has much more rain where as the gfs basically has the storm OTS. oh right, sorry about that. lol |
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Nov 14 2012, 02:49 PM
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#55
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 690 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Endwell, NY Member No.: 16,598 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 14 2012, 12:31 PM) I know this will be a primarily rain event, I just meant the CMC has much more rain where as the gfs basically has the storm OTS. Since this is rain, I am definitely hoping for an OTS solution. Rain events always seem to hit us--not so for snow events. -------------------- CHECK OUT MY FAVORITE 2012 QUOTES FROM FELLOW POSTERS--IN PERSONAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS!!
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Nov 15 2012, 12:47 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EST THU 15 NOVEMBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-180 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTES: ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A62/ DROP 6 (35.8N 70.4W)/ 17/0000Z B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK62 C. 16/1845Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. -------------------- |
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