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jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 07:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Columbia Public School district cancelled classes for today at 5pm yesterday due to the -20 wind chill.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287764 · Replies: · Views: 31,602

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 15 2018, 07:30 AM) *
1/15 0Z NAEFS:


In a word...

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287354 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Again...show GFS op tellies from wxbell and apply my rule.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287265 · Replies: · Views: 2,861

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 15 2018, 10:40 AM) *
Models are starting to show a storm during this timeframe


Do everyone a favor and show them.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287261 · Replies: · Views: 5,494

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(AccuChris @ Jan 15 2018, 10:38 AM) *
One obs thread for all dates for this event makes sense. It was confusing with the multiple threads before so one big all encompassing thread for now term makes sense. For PA, the I-81 corridor looks to be the jackpot for this system when blending all the models. It will be fun to watch this all unfold tonight into tomorrow!


You act like we had 3 or more. laugh.gif

The only reason why it might have been confusing is because people were posting total snowfall maps instead of 24hr in the coastal thread.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287259 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 14 2018, 06:28 PM) *
.


It reminds me of how people who blankly stare at the 6-10 & 8-14 CPC outlooks. They see one color and can't believe a switch to the other will happen at all during that time period.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287092 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 04:23 PM) *
Negative PNA and flat tellies across the board.

If anyone has the weatherbell or weathermodels.com tellies that would be great because then we could apply my rule.


Anyone?

Bueller? Bueller?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287091 · Replies: · Views: 5,494

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 09:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


From cranky when DT attacked the NWS multi-WFO snow forecast claiming it was GFS "bs".

Cranky last night and WPC today
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286994 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 07:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 14 2018, 06:17 PM) *
Hey all,

Im not sure if many of you guys/gals take a gander at different threads and forums out there on many of the topics we even discuss in our threads but this was a really fascinating one. I personally love THIS forum as it has helped me with understanding so much of what pertains to strato and other ideas. In fact this is the site I gathered the info from for creating a strat thread. Added a little flare here and there but the person who created those threads did a remarkable job and felt the information needed to be shared with everyone.

I know many dont visit certain threads because of mockery or certain individuals bringing threads down, but with a good mod team that can all be handled. I implore many of you to take a gander in this forum at some of the fascinating discussions on basic teles and even take a hop over to the strat thread. ( Not to detract you from this forum but to expand on knowledge you must seek it)

If anyone would like to contribute to this we can hopefully lock this in as one of the few things we have here in LR discussion since many come to visit this thread versus the others that are just never opened or seen.

I have been gathering information over the past couple months and will probably sometime soon post a whole list of tele observations and precursors to help better understand the roles they play and the interactions between them. Maybe ill start up a site or a blog or something with all that info but please do feel free to check this out. Can click THIS above or the link below.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...41200%26HH%3D84


The first link takes us to weatheronline.uk.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286921 · Replies: · Views: 116

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 01:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Jan 14 2018, 09:17 AM) *
JB thinks this time frame is good for a coastal from Sat summary. Cranky is less enthusiastic. Le's see who wins the prize wink.gif


Did JB use the Brazilian? JB supports coastal storms 95% of the time so that's nothing new. All this post does is show your worship of all things JB.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286784 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 11:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 13 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Haha!

Has he just started recently? I didn't really see him mentioned anywhere until this winter.


He's had a wunderground blog for years before moving to Twitter.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286671 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 10:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 13 2018, 09:04 PM) *
Very impressive write-up from CrankyWX, my thanks to JD for bringing him to my attention.

http://www.stormhamster.com/e011318b.htm


No problem! Just be careful of his...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286651 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 09:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Cranky's look back...

https://t.co/uO33GGiPxN?amp=1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286645 · Replies: · Views: 19,507

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 09:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Winter lover @ Jan 13 2018, 07:54 PM) *
This storm seems to have the same set-up and potential track as the storm that whacked Connecticut and all surrounding states minus the week of arctic air prior to the system.


In a word...no. Not even close.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286643 · Replies: · Views: 61,980

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 08:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 13 2018, 07:21 PM) *
Haa what are these snake eyes you speak of


Just be careful following the EPS religiously...

https://twitter.com/epawawx/status/95081285...46%7Ctwterm%5E3

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286637 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 07:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


As I told the mw people, I would suggest only using qpf maps since we won't see 10:1 ratios with the clipper.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286618 · Replies: · Views: 61,980

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 07:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(TheBlizzardOf1978 @ Jan 13 2018, 02:21 PM) *
But that is 10:1.


I'd imagine it would be better to see just qpf if the snow maps are 10:1.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286615 · Replies: · Views: 31,602

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 07:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 13 2018, 06:22 PM) *
Because you have to probably allow access in your browser to access the .mil site

Here they are not hotlinked






Unless you have gone directly to that website, you can't view it. It's a matter of security permissions.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286611 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 05:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 03:32 PM) *
See if this works. Testing this 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter anom animated gif (guess it works)..too bad there is a 2 meg upload size on the forums..


Nice job!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286596 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 05:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 13 2018, 03:27 PM) *
Is that because of the negative PNA?


Negative PNA and flat tellies across the board.

If anyone has the weatherbell or weathermodels.com tellies that would be great because then we could apply my rule.

QUOTE
Forecast high, verify low. Forecast low, verify high.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286595 · Replies: · Views: 5,494

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 05:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 13 2018, 03:40 PM) *
True...we will see. Observation is the fun part!


I really hate the "we will see" comments.

The BSR is a pattern recognition tool.

Using the various pattern recognition tools that have owned the models this year, I would think that you would take a more optimistic look than "we will see".
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286594 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 02:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(conifer1 @ Jan 13 2018, 05:06 AM) *
Keep hearing of a warm up but then I see tweets about some type of warming in the atmosphere that could lead to more cold end of month. Anyone have any thoughts on this?


Timing...all about the timing. There is a lag correlation to ssw as to how it impacts our weather. I'm sure the rest of the gang like, so what's happening, will be talking about it in the stratosphere thread.

Soo...be careful on those who are locking in arctic cold in the East based on 240hr stratosphere maps.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286529 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 01:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 13 2018, 12:37 PM) *
WPC discussion points to why there might be confusion - but I believe we've got this sorted out as well as can be
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


Interesting they mention "several"
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286523 · Replies: · Views: 28,268

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Big Ant @ Jan 13 2018, 10:40 AM) *
About two inches here in Louisville. I'd call this one a "miss", as at one point within 24 hours, the forecast was for 5 to 6 inches total. I think Mark Jarvis's call on the frozen QPF ratio was spot on and a big reason we missed out on higher totals.


This was a test for Mark on social media for sure. I believe he did a good job.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286454 · Replies: · Views: 74,915

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 11:41 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,065
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Looking forward to seeing totals out of this one as we all know clippers can produce surprise amounts.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286453 · Replies: · Views: 31,602

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