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> May 24-June 1 Plains/MW/GL/OV Heat Wave, Reality 0-3 Days; Forecasts/OBS/Gripes and more
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post May 24 2018, 11:30 AM
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Local forecast has 10 straight days of temps in the 90's May is bringing June in with a vengeance. If any regions need removed let me know, just did a general regional thread as to not clog up severe threads with temps.

Luckily have a 4 day weekend starting tomorrow.

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jun 2 2018, 06:39 AM
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ValpoSnow
post May 24 2018, 06:06 PM
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The expanding drought will certainly aid the heat. Are you getting pretty dry, Monger? Chicago isn't. We're in one of our wettest Mays ever, but I know there is a fairly sharp gradient between wet and dry.

I dread this heat. Very likely will hit 90 this weekend. May has just been terrible overall. Very few pleasant days and many hot and humid and then some dreary and cool. One extreme to the other.

Gosh, I hate summer! lol

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 24 2018, 07:18 PM
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It's actually amazing how warm this May has been. It's one thing to get these anomalies in the winter, but we're 3 months into the warm season. You don't get these kind of anomalies that often. We're a week away from May ending and Cincinnati and a good portion of the lower Midwest is running 8+ degrees above average.

The next week will only add to this anomaly. It's crazy. "Morch" has an all new meaning now.



Just checked, Cincinnati has yet to have a day with a negative anomaly this May.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 24 2018, 07:27 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post May 24 2018, 07:51 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ May 24 2018, 06:06 PM) *
The expanding drought will certainly aid the heat. Are you getting pretty dry, Monger? Chicago isn't. We're in one of our wettest Mays ever, but I know there is a fairly sharp gradient between wet and dry.

I dread this heat. Very likely will hit 90 this weekend. May has just been terrible overall. Very few pleasant days and many hot and humid and then some dreary and cool. One extreme to the other.

Gosh, I hate summer! lol



Not quite, but falling behind quickly. See what storm chances tomorrow brings, Forbes a bit more optimistic than SPC.

For the year we aren't behind, but meteorological Spring we are down a bit over an inch and a quarter. Bit more than that for the month.

I loathe to think about the next 3 months, I don't mind swimming temperatures, but when you get in a pool and are pouring sweat still it's a bit absurd heat laugh.gif

Forgot the precip climo.....


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NWOhioChaser
post May 24 2018, 10:53 PM
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Many places (including MBY) have gotten so much rain the past few weeks that this is going to be a classic hot and humid holiday weekend for many. Girlfriend and I are going kayaking on the Maumee river early Saturday to beat the heat, and I might try and get a base tan without burning too much.

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StL weatherjunki...
post May 25 2018, 08:10 AM
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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ May 24 2018, 11:53 PM) *
Many places (including MBY) have gotten so much rain the past few weeks that this is going to be a classic hot and humid holiday weekend for many. Girlfriend and I are going kayaking on the Maumee river early Saturday to beat the heat, and I might try and get a base tan without burning too much.

Famous last words ... the longest day and strongest sun angle of the year is less than a month away (June 21)


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We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post May 25 2018, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 24 2018, 08:18 PM) *
It's actually amazing how warm this May has been. It's one thing to get these anomalies in the winter, but we're 3 months into the warm season. You don't get these kind of anomalies that often. We're a week away from May ending and Cincinnati and a good portion of the lower Midwest is running 8+ degrees above average.

The next week will only add to this anomaly. It's crazy. "Morch" has an all new meaning now.



Just checked, Cincinnati has yet to have a day with a negative anomaly this May.

On average, summer is lengthening and winter is shortening so June weather in May (very likely what we're currently seeing) will probably happen more often than not in the future.

While the anomalies are large, they don't compare to March, 2012.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: May 25 2018, 08:34 AM
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Ahoff
post May 25 2018, 03:01 PM
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Surprised it's actually gotten as high as it has today! Wonder what the rest of the weekend and early next week will be? 87 currently, could we touch 90?
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bradjl2009
post May 25 2018, 07:17 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ May 25 2018, 08:30 AM) *
On average, summer is lengthening and winter is shortening so June weather in May (very likely what we're currently seeing) will probably happen more often than not in the future.

While the anomalies are large, they don't compare to March, 2012.

I've noticed them a bit longer in the last few years too. I'm just going to expect low 80's in late September instead of around 70 so I'm not disappointed when it's like that.
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bradjl2009
post May 25 2018, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ May 25 2018, 03:01 PM) *
Surprised it's actually gotten as high as it has today! Wonder what the rest of the weekend and early next week will be? 87 currently, could we touch 90?

I doubt it, no model is showing that and it looks like there's going to be more in the way of cloud, humidity, and scattered storms so that should keep up capped at around 85 this weekend. That's more than enough warm for me.

I'm guessing you have a weather station at your house? NWS is showing a high of 85 and it back to 81 now.

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MotownWX
post May 25 2018, 09:43 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ May 25 2018, 09:30 AM) *
On average, summer is lengthening and winter is shortening so June weather in May (very likely what we're currently seeing) will probably happen more often than not in the future.

While the anomalies are large, they don't compare to March, 2012.


Although dont forget this year we had March weather through April.

I would contend that winters have trended colder/longer in the NE US and Eastern Canada. The western third of NA has obviously gotten warmer and drier.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post May 25 2018, 10:02 PM
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10.1 degrees above normal fir the month


Not a fan

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 10:56 PM
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First heat advisories are up. Western Texas, so not close to anyone here.

QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 105...

.The combination of increasing high pressure aloft and very dry
air will combine to produce abnormal heat Saturday and Sunday.

TXZ047-048-050>053-061>063-068-069-261115-
/O.NEW.KMAF.HT.Y.0001.180526T1800Z-180528T0000Z/
Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-Midland-
Glasscock-Crane-Upton-
Including the cities of Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton,
Big Spring, Colorado City, Odessa, Midland, Garden City, Crane,
McCamey, and Rankin
218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT
Sunday.

* TEMPERATURE...Highs around 105.

* IMPACTS...Limited outdoor exposure. Heat illness is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible
and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an
emergency, call 9 1 1.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 11:38 PM
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NE AR... how fun



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Gnutella
post May 26 2018, 06:35 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ May 25 2018, 04:01 PM) *
Surprised it's actually gotten as high as it has today! Wonder what the rest of the weekend and early next week will be? 87 currently, could we touch 90?


Probably not. Pittsburgh often gets blue-balled at 88F or 89F while everyplace else to the east and west gets to 90F+. laugh.gif

Watch the next widespread triple-digit heat wave be an everywhere-except-Pittsburgh event as well, just like 1953.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 08:38 AM
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Here comes the humidity. Dew points already 10 degrees higher than yesterday and mixing is ongoing

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 26 2018, 08:39 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post May 26 2018, 11:25 AM
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^Yeah sitting at a DP of 70 right now. Though the stretch of 90s was removed 88-89 is still pretty hot especially with DPs in the 70s.


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joseph507123
post May 26 2018, 03:52 PM
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Warmer in Minnesota than Death Valley.

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--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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Ahoff
post May 26 2018, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ May 26 2018, 07:35 AM) *
Probably not. Pittsburgh often gets blue-balled at 88F or 89F while everyplace else to the east and west gets to 90F+. laugh.gif

Watch the next widespread triple-digit heat wave be an everywhere-except-Pittsburgh event as well, just like 1953.


This is a sore subject for me. Incredibly annoying! The last 100 degree day was in July 1995, the year I was born. So, I've never actually experienced one. The closest we got was 2012 with a 99 degree high on July 7th.
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Gnutella
post May 26 2018, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ May 26 2018, 07:03 PM) *
This is a sore subject for me. Incredibly annoying! The last 100 degree day was in July 1995, the year I was born. So, I've never actually experienced one. The closest we got was 2012 with a 99 degree high on July 7th.


Ironically, Pittsburgh reached 100F in 1995, but Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Washington DC did not.

I think the reason why Pittsburgh often gets low-balled in heat waves is because the official observations come from a station located 13 miles northwest of the city at about 1,200' above sea level. The extra elevation and the relative lack of an urban heat island effect in the vicinity of the station can rub anywhere from two to five degrees off the temperature. (There's virtually zero development to the west of the station.)

Up until June 1948, official observations in Pittsburgh came from a station in Allegheny Commons that averaged 14 days of 90F temperatures per year. Had official observations come from there until the station went offline in 1979, then you could add August 27, 1948 and September 3, 1953 to Pittsburgh's list of "official" 100F days, and you could also subtract 1976 and 1979 from the list of summers when Pittsburgh failed to reach 90F.
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