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> Jan 1st-4th GL/OV Lake Effect Snow- Disco and OBS, Please Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS
HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:24 PM
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Per Radar Returns in upper Michigan. The event has begun. Can someone please close the other thread.

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QUOTE
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
116 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL
LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL PULL COLD
AIR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A
NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AS STRONG WINDS GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

MIZ004-005-020230-
/O.CON.KMQT.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120103T0000Z/
BARAGA-MARQUETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...L`ANSE...GWINN...MARQUETTE
116 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF BARAGA COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS IN MARQUETTE COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS TO FALL ACROSS AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY
SOUTH AND EAST OF ISHPEMING.

* NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF ISHPEMING AND ACROSS MOST OF BARAGA
COUNTY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 7 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
MARQUETTE COUNTY.

IMPACTS...

* TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
THE HEAVY SNOW...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING
SNOW...ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:29 PM
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NWS in Cle Lake Effect Snow Warning Write up

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1115 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...FIRST MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON ON THE WAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY
ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER NEAR THE SHORELINE TONIGHT BUT
WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG NEAR THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH AT TIMES. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

OHZ011-023-020015-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.120102T0900Z-120103T2100Z/
CUYAHOGA-TRUMBULL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...WARREN
1115 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO
4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS....MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 8 INCHES
OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO A FOOT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKE AND
INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS INLAND INTO MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT THEN
HOLD NEARLY STEADY MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND DOWN TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS LEADING TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:31 PM
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NWS in Cle Lates AFD, as of 1:06 P.M.

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCLE 011806
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN A
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING THEN
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED WESTERN OHIO WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND IT.
WIND GUSTS TO 43 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TOL AND FDY AND SOME
OF THE HEALTHIER SHOWERS MAY HELP TO BRING STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE RADAR IS ALSO LIGHTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH THE SECONDARY/STRONGER PUSH OF COLD
ADVECTION. BOTH THE WIND ADVISORY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE SNUCK UP TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONVERT LAKE EFFECT WATCHES TO WARNINGS NOW THAT EVENT HAS
BECOME MORE IMMINENT. CONCERNED THAT WARNING START UP FOR CUYAHOGA
AND TRUMBULL MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE FOR CRITERIA SNOWFALL BUT GIVEN
IMPACT WITH THE WINDS AND MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL LEAVE AS IS.

STILL THINK BEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING EAST OF SNOWBELT AROUND 12Z TUE MORNING SO
SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT TAPER TO SCT SHSN BY AFTERNOON SO ENDING OF
WARNING AT 4 PM STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. IN TOTAL SHOULD SEE A GOOD
PART OF THE SNOWBELT GET 10 TO 24 INCHES FROM THIS EVENT.

RIDGING MOVES ACROSS AREA TUE EVE TO END REST OF LAKE EFFECT. TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ON WED. WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT LATER IN THE WEEK... WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES.
THIS CREATES A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WE WILL PROBABLY BE
BETWEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS... WITH WARM ADVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... AND A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. YESTERDAY I WAS HOPING FOR A
SOMEWHAT CLEAN WARM UP AND PERHAPS A SUNNY DAY OR AT LEAST A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN BUT GIVEN
CLIMATOLOGY I AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...ALMOST EVERY DAY...ESPECIALLY
FARTHER NORTH. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD END UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DARK. MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH MVFR OR IFR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS SEEM TO BE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. FOR THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE WORSE
CONDITIONS EAST OF CLE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER ELSEWHERE MONDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. LOCAL NON-VFR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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Superstorm93
post Jan 1 2012, 02:31 PM
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Should be fun to follow

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--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:33 PM
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Current Weather map. Cold Front in Western Ohio.

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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:37 PM
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strong lake effect off michigan that low is just sitting NE of the lake

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Superstorm93
post Jan 1 2012, 02:45 PM
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HCA from APX is picking up all snow near the surface.

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Millersville University Meteorology Major
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 02:51 PM
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Coming down literally in buckets in central Michigan
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Michiganman
post Jan 1 2012, 03:15 PM
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Got some light snow that's not even being pick up on the radar here.
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 04:02 PM
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Wind gusts hitting 35MPH here.
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OhioBlizzard
post Jan 1 2012, 04:18 PM
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Made my final snowmap. Not to much different than friday night's but went more categorical with snow amounts. Primary belt looks to get hardest hit but secondary belt will get into the action as we go through the day monday and will get decent banding monday night. Should be a fun event.


Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 1 2012, 04:38 PM
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forecast image out of GRR. . .

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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 04:39 PM
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My final map meant 5-9 in light blue not six sorry.
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 1 2012, 04:42 PM
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some 30dbz streamin' up within' a nice convergence zone. . .

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Gilbertfly
post Jan 1 2012, 04:49 PM
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Nice clouds bubblin' up in SW Lower MI. . .

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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 04:51 PM
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Erie should start up about 6:30
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OSUWx2
post Jan 1 2012, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(HassayWx2306 @ Jan 1 2012, 04:39 PM) *


My final map meant 5-9 in light blue not six sorry.

Looks good Hassay, except I would be really surprised to see 6+ south of a line from Akron to Youngstown. Although locally higher totals are possible, just depends where the band sets up.

Well I just contradicted myself laugh.gif

I wish I could be up there just to see 1" of accumulation.
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 1 2012, 04:54 PM
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HPC chatta' . . .

QUOTE
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
307 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012

VALID 00Z MON JAN 02 2012 - 00Z THU JAN 05 2012

DAYS 1-2...

GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST N OF THE UPR LAKES IS FORECAST TO DRIVE THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON DOWN ACROSS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST BY THE NAM TO REACH
INTO THE MINUS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S C ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
TOMORROW. LONG CROSS LK TRAJECTORIES MAXIMIZE HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUXES AND HELP GENERATE A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE TROUGH. LEE
SHORE CONVERGENCE AREAS HELP HIGH LAPSE RATES IN TRIGGERING
ASCENT. WITH CROSS SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LK MI TRAJECTORIES...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE FCST IN THE EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MI...WITH SECOND MAXIMA IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
WIDER PORTION OF LK MI. BY EARLY TUE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES...ALONG WITH
THE MORE SUSTAINED HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE MULTI-LAKE BNDRY
LAYER WIND FETCH CROSSING LK HURON AND LK ERIE FAVORS THE AREA
FROM FAR NORTHEAST OHIO TO NORTHWEST PA/FAR SOUTHWEST NY FOR
HEAVIER SNOWS. VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO
THE BAND LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OFF LK ONTARIO...MAKING FINDING
A PREFERRED LOCATION FOR HEAVY SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED TUG HILL MORE DIFFICULT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...ESP FROM FAR
WRN MD DOWN THRU ERN WV...WHERE SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL. BY LATE TUE...EXPECT DIMINISHING AMTS FROM W TO
THE E AS THE UPR LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE THRU ERN CAN...REPLACED
BY A DEEP RIDGE DRIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE TWO-DAY
PERIOD...THEREFORE HIGHER WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE DETAILED
HI-RES NAM FOR THE QPF AND RESULTANT AMOUNTS.


D1...
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D2...
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 1 2012, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 1 2012, 04:51 PM) *
Looks good Hassay, except I would be really surprised to see 6+ south of a line from Akron to Youngstown. Although locally higher totals are possible, just depends where the band sets up.

Well I just contradicted myself laugh.gif

I wish I could be up there just to see 1" of accumulation.


I'm telling you I'm confident in this being strong. I might sound nuts now, but this is a BIG LES event

This post has been edited by HassayWx2306: Jan 1 2012, 05:04 PM
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Jan 1 2012, 05:22 PM
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We got a Lake Effect Snow Watch here in Medina, Ohio. My forecast calls for 1" tonight, 2-4 tommorrow and 3-7 Monday night. We shall see.

Good job Ohio Blizzard and Hassay! Gutsy taking a stab at a Lake Effect Map. I think that on Ohio Blizzards map, NW Cuyahoga may be a little to high. I just think the heavy stuff won't occur until it moves inland and gets some lift. In any event, I think both maps are good. My high pick in Ohio will be Bainbridge with 21" followed by Pierpont with about 20".
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