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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 12:19 PM
Post #281




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939mb in GOA blink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 01:55 PM
Post #282




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We're 2-3 weeks behind now..

Check out these comparisons!

Green in Massachusetts at 300' vs colors in North Carolina at 5000'+

Source:

Source:


Attached File  tweet2.jpg ( 355.64K ) Number of downloads: 1




How about this? West Virginia yesterday at about 4000' vs Connecticut at 1100'. blink.gif

Source:

Source:


Attached File  tweet1.jpg ( 428.25K ) Number of downloads: 1

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JDClapper
post Yesterday, 02:02 PM
Post #283




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 18 2017, 02:55 PM) *
We're 2-3 weeks behind now..

Check out these comparisons!

Green in Massachusetts at 300' vs colors in North Carolina at 5000'+

Source:

Source:


Attached File  tweet2.jpg ( 355.64K ) Number of downloads: 1

How about this? West Virginia yesterday at about 4000' vs Connecticut at 1100'. blink.gif

Source:

Source:
Attached File  tweet1.jpg ( 428.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


That WV pic is amazing. Our colors blow here. It's green or brown .. hoping we're just behind and we see some real color soon.. it will be sad to just go from green to brown and be done.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 03:05 PM
Post #284




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2017, 03:02 PM) *
That WV pic is amazing. Our colors blow here. It's green or brown .. hoping we're just behind and we see some real color soon.. it will be sad to just go from green to brown and be done.


I hear ya. Same here with the dull/browness. Next weeks front/storm may thin us out more where theres heavy wind and rain.
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grace
post Yesterday, 04:14 PM
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Looking at all the model differences from run to run days 6-10...kind of hard to dismiss 12z Euro OP & 12z EPS when they are exact agreement.
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Yesterday, 04:35 PM
Post #286




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UPDATED ECMWF Ensemble Mean Snowfall forecast through December 1st. Change is for heavier snow amounts to move further south in the central Plains / Great Lakes / Northeast. I'm not really focusing on specifics here, because that can get you in trouble. I am looking at the big picture that is showing a much stormier colder November. Don't focus on snowfall amounts but the trend.

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/pho...e=3&theater
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Attached File  22550167_1482115081856886_4969264785230340402_o.jpg ( 206.46K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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Undertakerson
post Yesterday, 04:44 PM
Post #287




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Amplified would be an understatement - but does this translate to volatile, having a hint of double Omega flow?

Attached File  f240.gif ( 172.42K ) Number of downloads: 2


QUOTE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS NOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UTILIZED 20 PERCENT OF
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST BLEND IN COMBINATION WITH THESE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS. GRADUALLY INCORPORATED THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS FROM DAY 5/MONDAY ONWARD GIVEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AROUND AVERAGE BUT MUCH OF THIS
FOCUSES ON THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

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jdrenken
post Yesterday, 05:34 PM
Post #288




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QUOTE(TheBlizzardOf1978 @ Oct 18 2017, 04:35 PM) *
UPDATED ECMWF Ensemble Mean Snowfall forecast through December 1st. Change is for heavier snow amounts to move further south in the central Plains / Great Lakes / Northeast. I'm not really focusing on specifics here, because that can get you in trouble. I am looking at the big picture that is showing a much stormier colder November. Don't focus on snowfall amounts but the trend.

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/pho...e=3&theater


Click me! Click me! Share me! Share me!

This is junk. Through a social media perspective, this won't be shared because people "not focused on specifics."

Heck...if I charted what that map gave me last year I should've became a plow driver! We know how that turned out!


--------------------
QUOTE
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grace
post Yesterday, 08:27 PM
Post #289




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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 18 2017, 05:34 PM) *
Click me! Click me! Share me! Share me!

This is junk. Through a social media perspective, this won't be shared because people "not focused on specifics."

Heck...if I charted what that map gave me last year I should've became a plow driver! We know how that turned out!



laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Today, 04:18 AM
Post #290




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Here in 1989 on this date. tongue.gif

https://www.facebook.com/WTHR13/videos/10155372802196144/
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MaineJay
post Today, 05:32 AM
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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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I'd say we are at about "peak" here. Not super vibrant this year, gonna be windy too, so that'll strip some leaves.

From about 1000 ft elevation in Norway, Maine. Edit: there's a lot of pine trees, so that add to the "greenery".

Attached File  ezgif_4_73602cdfef.jpg ( 1.94MB ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Today, 05:34 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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NorEaster07
post Today, 05:56 AM
Post #292




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8 Day forecast Coastal CT on left, Inland CT on right.. 70s and Sun next several days

#AugTober
#SepTober
#OctToaster

Next chance of rain is Tue-Wed next week with that long awaited front

Attached File  forecast9.jpg ( 156.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Next 5 days from NWS. 40s/50s for lows. 70s for Highs with Sun Sun Sun.

Attached File  forecast10.jpg ( 167.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Today, 05:56 AM
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Undertakerson
post Today, 11:51 AM
Post #293




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QUOTE
CLIMATE...
Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at
Harrisburg and Williamsport.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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OSNW3
post Today, 12:18 PM
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I find it entertaining when tropical activity in the Philippine Sea connects possible tropical activity in the GOM.



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ohiobuckeye45
post Today, 12:38 PM
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I feel the models slowly pulling me back here more and more often....anyone see the LR 06z GFS...

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Today, 12:41 PM
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