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> Jan 27-30th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Solstice
post Jan 28 2018, 05:39 PM
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Link to Forecasting Thread.

Precipitation commenced a while ago, but better late than never.
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Current Radar (Static)
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GOES-16 Mid-Level Water Vapor (Static)
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Latest High-Resolution Surface Analysis (18z)
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This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 28 2018, 05:39 PM


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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jan 28 2018, 05:44 PM
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18z RGEM / HRDPS (whichever it is) seems to show a bigger hit.
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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 28 2018, 05:45 PM
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Might as well post here also. Wonderful sunset in WV on the west edge of the baroclinic leaf cloud
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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MaineJay
post Jan 28 2018, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 28 2018, 05:45 PM) *
Might as well post here also. Wonderful sunset in WV on the west edge of the baroclinic leaf cloud



Awesome shot. Too dark for a picture now, but my sky is spilt half clear, half cloud.


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fordfisherman
post Jan 28 2018, 05:56 PM
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cranky stating that better jet dynamics may pull this back towards coastal SNE.(twitter)
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MaineJay
post Jan 28 2018, 06:04 PM
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Critical thicknesses

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MaineJay
post Jan 28 2018, 06:54 PM
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H7 relative humidity

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2 hour pressure delta

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NorEaster07
post Jan 28 2018, 07:14 PM
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https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/...655799299543042

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MaineJay
post Jan 28 2018, 07:53 PM
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12z H3 winds comparison breath 3km NAMand SPC meso.

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Interesting that the jet streak in Montana is stronger in the SPC meso, but the Dakotas one is stronger in the model. Not sure if it means anything.

Edit: also looks deeper INVOF the Oklahoma panhandle

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jan 28 2018, 07:55 PM


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MaineJay
post Jan 28 2018, 08:06 PM
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Perhaps a bump in the SREFs, especially around New York City

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jordan4385
post Jan 28 2018, 09:13 PM
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dam lol looks like I cant even buy an inch.


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20th anniversary tripple phaser ?
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stretchct
post Jan 28 2018, 09:20 PM
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3k v radar

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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 28 2018, 09:22 PM
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SREF for Bridgeport - snow up a tick.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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HV Snowstorm
post Jan 28 2018, 09:24 PM
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These systems often seem to have little surprises thrown in with the energy coming from inland and a storm offshore , might be able to get a tad of interaction to fill the precip shield in s bit over land between the 2. Will have to wait and see I guess.....

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stretchct
post Jan 28 2018, 09:25 PM
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And anyone in SE Mass may want to keep an eye out.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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HV Snowstorm
post Jan 28 2018, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 28 2018, 09:20 PM) *
3k v radar

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Looks pretty similar for the coastal, and more precip with the inland energy that modeled.
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stretchct
post Jan 28 2018, 10:00 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 28 2018, 09:25 PM) *
And anyone in SE Mass may want to keep an eye out.
Attached Image



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jan 29 2018, 04:09 AM
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06z 3k NAM showing a decent burst of snow.
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NorEaster07
post Jan 29 2018, 07:13 AM
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3-7am loop with Upper heights.

Storm currently off the SC coast.



4am Surface map

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wtkidz
post Jan 29 2018, 07:31 AM
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So excited for the coating to an inch ..

Of course that is more than I thought we would get...


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The weather is what it is and nothing will change it
but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun.



Its Meteorology NOT Modelology
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