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> Feb 6th-8th Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Reality: (0-3 days out) Forecast
Ryan45
post Jan 29 2011, 01:02 PM
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Another Winter storm as shown by most models. Latest GFS runs have all been hinting some kind of storm development around this time-frame and even the Euro hints some kind of clipper and a possible Southern stream and if they both phase things may get interesting. Given the non-existent blocking and active SE Ridge signs point towards a inland tracker but still ways out. Snowstorms will post images in his post. Even the latest GGEM has the storm on the last frame developing across Texas and Clipper across Saskatchewan

This post has been edited by Ryan45: Feb 3 2011, 05:21 PM


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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 29 2011, 01:04 PM
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Nice.....first time Ryan wink.gif Here's the GGEM hinting it...on the last frame! If the storm starts fiddling...then dates may need to be changed! Look at that SE Ridge ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by Snowstorms: Jan 29 2011, 01:04 PM
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Attached File  P6_GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif ( 155.65K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 29 2011, 02:13 PM
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12z ECMWF. Just beautiful. +NAO, tanking PNA and SE Ridge wink.gif
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snowgeek93
post Jan 29 2011, 02:36 PM
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I was secretly hoping we would get a surprise snow storm at or around my birthday (feb 6) and it looks like it may be possible. laugh.gif

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dsichewski
post Jan 29 2011, 02:46 PM
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On the models you were showing last night in the other thread were there not 2 seperate storms coming into the coast when the 1-3rd storm is hitting us? did one die out and the other is coming our way? and I could be totally wrong by the way as i have no experience at allll reading the models....i just looking at the blue green patches tongue.gif
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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 30 2011, 11:46 AM
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Another beauty on the 12z GFS. Active SE Ridge...and the H5 pattern looks similar to this current storm. Still ways out but something definitely to watch!


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Attached File  gfs_pcp_216m.gif ( 53.57K ) Number of downloads: 3
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Attached File  gfs_pcp_252m.gif ( 57.58K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_pcp_264m.gif ( 57.76K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Toronto-Snow
post Feb 2 2011, 10:01 AM
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Very active pattern thus far. This storm looks very intriguing. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge there's the slight change we may see some kind of mixing with this storm but certainly something to watch.

Look at the minimal pressure...967mb ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by Toronto-Snow: Feb 2 2011, 10:01 AM
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Attached File  P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif ( 167.45K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Feb 2 2011, 11:28 AM
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12z GFS. Perhaps 8-15cm in the darker green areas and 5cm in the lighter green areas. Cold after this.


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an uncanny otter
post Feb 2 2011, 04:04 PM
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Will be interesting to see how the track of this thing changes over the next couple of days. Looks pretty good right now, let's see where this thing goes. smile.gif
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cweber
post Feb 2 2011, 05:48 PM
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come on...NW shift! smile.gif
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HoBOonFiRE
post Feb 2 2011, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(cweber @ Feb 2 2011, 05:48 PM) *
come on...NW shift! smile.gif

Lol this time I want a NW shift...just not too much wink.gif tongue.gif Headed up to tiverton on friday, roads being cleared up there yet?
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gurtej101
post Feb 2 2011, 06:06 PM
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at this time period the chances that this storm will NW would be ?
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sbonnet
post Feb 2 2011, 07:14 PM
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THAT STORM WILL BE MORE NORTHEAST THAT THE ONE WE JUST GOT A MORE QUEBEC/NEWBRUNSWIK TROUBLE MAKER I THINK

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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Feb 2 2011, 09:00 PM
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ECMWF showed a general .48 to .70 qpf across the region, slightly more across E. Ont.
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ottawasnowstorm
post Feb 2 2011, 09:04 PM
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TWN has Ottawa in 10cm for this date. The model seems to suggest a bit more. Will be interesting.
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2011, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Feb 2 2011, 09:00 PM) *
ECMWF showed a general .48 to .70 qpf across the region, slightly more across E. Ont.


0.66" for Toronto. wink.gif
Let's hope the ECMWF stays more or less consistent with its further NW track compared to most other models. It is always good to have the ECMWF in your corner. wink.gif


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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Feb 2 2011, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2011, 09:05 PM) *
0.66" for Toronto. wink.gif
Let's hope the ECMWF stays more or less consistent with its further NW track compared to most other models. It is always good to have the ECMWF in your corner. wink.gif


Yeah i knew that laugh.gif

I'm concerned about this storm. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge mixing needs to be watched for this storm perhaps even rain but the +PNA should keep it stable but just something to keep in mind.

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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2011, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Feb 2 2011, 09:07 PM) *
Yeah i knew that laugh.gif

I'm concerned about this storm. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge mixing needs to be watched for this storm perhaps even rain but the +PNA should keep it stable but just something to keep in mind.


Ha, ya, I have a feeling it won't be. I know it is still 5-6 days away more or less, but most models in fact have this just south of us or just scraping us. The ECMWF is the best/furthest NW. I see where you are coming from, but with that much confidence of either all snow, or too far SE, it is hard to imagine mixing will occur. We shall see how this progresses over the next few days on the models.
LET'S GO ECMWF! wink.gif smile.gif laugh.gif rolleyes.gif


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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Feb 2 2011, 09:15 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2011, 09:12 PM) *
Ha, ya, I have a feeling it won't be. I know it is still 5-6 days away more or less, but most models in fact have this just south of us or just scraping us. The ECMWF is the best/furthest NW. I see where you are coming from, but with that much confidence of either all snow, or too far SE, it is hard to imagine mixing will occur. We shall see how this progresses over the next few days on the models.
LET'S GO ECMWF! wink.gif smile.gif laugh.gif rolleyes.gif


I know but this is something to consider given the La Nina starting to kick in to the overall pattern but the Non-existent blocking should keep the Cold air stable across Canada given the -EPO/+PNA but I'm just putting it out as a option. Still something to keep our eyes on.

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TOjunction
post Feb 2 2011, 10:17 PM
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Thought we could see 10cm with this storm but not so sure it will be much if anything now. Still time, we'll see.
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