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> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
SnowMan11
post Mar 21 2017, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 21 2017, 01:24 PM) *
A) I wouldn't trust those snowmaps one bit as surface temps will be marginal at best for those below 1500'
cool.gif I don't know I would call the CMC & GFS snowmaps favorable to SNE...maybe I-90 northward, but again, think they're overdoing the snow for lower elevations

Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.


--------------------
Anthony
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KENNYP2339
post Mar 21 2017, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.

I was thinking that if this setup was in November I would be saying / leaning on major ice storm.
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telejunkie
post Mar 21 2017, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.

NWS not mentioning any sleet in these parts...just some snow/rain mix to plain rain then back to rain/snow mix when some slightly colder air comes back south. I could be wrong...but really think surface temps are going to be above freezing for most of this event, even here in Central New England, aside from higher elevations which then you could be dealing potentially with sleet/fzr potential when 850s spike.
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Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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Miller A
post Mar 21 2017, 04:00 PM
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-221915-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This HWO is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for freezing rain and sleet Friday morning leading
to icy conditions. A wintry mix of precipitation is again possible on
Sunday night into Monday morning.



But no mention of it in my P&C

This post has been edited by Miller A: Mar 21 2017, 04:01 PM


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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saracenic arch
post Mar 21 2017, 05:40 PM
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Don't let your guard down yet. Strong CAD signature on this one. Low dew points out ahead.

This post has been edited by saracenic arch: Mar 21 2017, 05:46 PM
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saracenic arch
post Mar 21 2017, 05:59 PM
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...And then there's this. laugh.gif
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saracenic arch
post Mar 21 2017, 06:17 PM
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Also, 12z CMC since nobody posted it.

This post has been edited by saracenic arch: Mar 21 2017, 06:19 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 21 2017, 07:03 PM
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All hope lies with the Canadian rolleyes.gif The 12z euro was slightly colder as well..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Storms R us
post Mar 22 2017, 05:25 AM
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QUOTE(saracenic arch @ Mar 21 2017, 06:59 PM) *
...And then there's this. laugh.gif



I find it amusing when I see post like this as they seem to turn out to be mix, sleet, or mainly rain. End of March some posted snow and April 3 just to have those go to the waste side.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Mar 22 2017, 05:35 AM
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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2017, 06:07 AM
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Lol at the 6z GFS.

Getting light snow as we speak. smile.gif


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2017, 06:08 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 22 2017, 06:25 AM) *
I find it amusing when I see post like this as they seem to turn out to be mix, sleet, or mainly rain. End of March some posted snow and April 3 just to have those go to the waste side.



It's a large sub region.


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 22 2017, 09:12 AM
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Rainy season getting a head start, we need as much rain as we can get in the early going with how unpredictable summer/tstorms can be..Per usual the models still not in agreement..

6z Gfs weekly rainfall for upstate..


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 22 2017, 09:14 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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phillyfan
post Mar 22 2017, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 22 2017, 10:12 AM) *
Rainy season getting a head start, we need as much rain as we can get in the early going with how unpredictable summer/tstorms can be..Per usual the models still not in agreement..

6z Gfs weekly rainfall for upstate..


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Looks like a little bit of rain on Friday followed by more substantial rains Sunday-Monday and Tuesday-Wednesday. going to be quite rainy first half of next week it seems.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Miller A
post Mar 22 2017, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 22 2017, 07:07 AM) *
Lol at the 6z GFS.

Getting light snow as we speak. smile.gif


mad.gif

This post has been edited by Miller A: Mar 22 2017, 04:52 PM
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--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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stretchct
post Mar 23 2017, 08:39 AM
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Interesting temp contrasts on the NAM hr84

Yes those are 70's in PA/NJ. Wind shift from the ENE causes the cooler temps N of NYC

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 23 2017, 08:46 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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