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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
jdrenken
post Today, 03:15 AM
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https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

WEATHERAmerica Newsletter is online!

1) The forecast is actually somewhat normal for a November in the U.S., with some of the cold air from Canada drifting south. But nothing truly extreme.

2) Dryness in much of the West will be concurrent with warmth, and occasionally lurch into the Great Plains through the first week of December.

3) There is a small chance that a coastal storm could develop out of the Gulf of Mexico during the new week. Nothing definite, just bears watching.

4) Analog forecasts show a much warmer eastern third of the U.S. for most of next month. Other signs, however, seem to disagree with that scenario.


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Undertakerson
post Today, 06:02 AM
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Sunday morning shenanigans on the GFS laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png ( 180.29K ) Number of downloads: 5


But is seems as if some left the downstream escape hatch open

Attached File  gfs_z500a_namer_53.png ( 179.04K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Today, 06:04 AM
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grace
post Today, 06:25 AM
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Expected warmth in eastern 1/3 for first week of DEC now showing up on EPS.

Cold starts late 2nd week & will begin to bleed east from the west...per RRWT

Ridginng out west & a +PNA look by mid-Dec per RRWT
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NorEaster07
post Today, 08:24 AM
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I almost didn't want to catch up with it... Might as well start... The Sub 985mb low this morning gave me the push.

First.... Storm Tracks November 2016...

Attached File  November_2016_Storm_Tracks.jpg ( 440.41K ) Number of downloads: 2



So far this month... I try to do just 1005mb or stronger... (I may have missed 1 or 2 from beginning of month). There's been a bunch of short waves and weak LP's but I believe stayed above 1005mb

Attached File  November_2017_Storm_Tracks.jpg ( 417.37K ) Number of downloads: 1



Last 10 days from this site...

Attached File  Tracks.jpg ( 287.23K ) Number of downloads: 1

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NorEaster07
post Today, 10:23 AM
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November 7, 2016 VS November 17, 2017.


By now my backyard Maple tree would be thinning out with winds or rain and all the yellow leaves would be falling, but it's not even changed yet. blink.gif

The strong winds are knocking off many weak colored leaves now so it will look more winterish but there's some that still have green on them. Surreal.

And last yr was a bit late too.


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jdrenken
post Today, 02:12 PM
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From the latest Hovmoller Analysis...

The northern hemisphere is currently under a Wave 6 pattern with the largest
amplitude indicated near Kamchatka. A large hemispheric block is noted near
and along the dateline where a very large expansive ridge resides. This is
causing some increased amplification in the western Pacific and perturbed
short-wave flow downstream towards the U.S. west coast. Meanwhile, a large
cold pool is planted firmly over the Hudsonís Bay region awaiting a tap for cold
air plunges into the U.S. in time. This first such surge does appear to be
setting up for Thanksgiving Weekend with increased signal crossing with
amplitude noted on November 24-25 in the middle and eastern U.S.
The PNA is currently in a negative phase at this time due in large part to the
large trough off the Asian continent in the upper Pacific., but should trend to a
neutral posture once the mid-Pacific ridge breaks down. Both the NAO and
AO are in sync at this time, currently neutral but trending negative. It does
appear the modeling may be too aggressive with the uptick in time, as a
negative phase may linger for another 10-14 days before turning upward
towards the early days of December.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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