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WeatherMonger
Posted on: Today, 12:56 PM


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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 25 2017, 12:54 PM) *
Text

This part sounds interesting

QUOTE
A few
strong bows may trek northeastward across much of Illinois as well.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226676 · Replies: · Views: 4,636

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Today, 12:47 PM


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Enhanced is slowly getting extended NE, but not getting my hopes up

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226673 · Replies: · Views: 4,636

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Today, 07:18 AM


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Newest WPC 7 day QPF

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226654 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Today, 07:16 AM


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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Apr 25 2017, 12:49 AM) *
00z GFS and CMC

Here was the 0Z GFS. As far as the CMC, how much of that was ice? laugh.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226653 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:18 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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Latest WPC 7 day QPF

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226631 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:35 PM


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Weather.gov(NOAA) down for everyone
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226616 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:13 PM


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Quite the placement difference between the NAM and GFS

NAm at 84 total QPF

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GFS same hour

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GFS event total

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226610 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:22 AM


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With the maples dropping their seeds(helicopters), be a good idea to check them gutters

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226596 · Replies: · Views: 799

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 19 2017, 10:17 AM


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Forbes has a more pronounced SE hook to the severe area. Been cloudy all day so not expecting anything at all

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226306 · Replies: · Views: 5,931

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 19 2017, 08:34 AM


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10% tornado area added, hatched and 30% hail

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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes will be possible from the central Plains to the upper
Mississippi Valley mainly from mid-afternoon into tonight.

...Central Plains/middle MO Valley to upper MS Valley...
Embedded within a moderately strong belt of west-southwesterly
mid-level winds, water vapor imagery features an eastward-moving
shortwave trough from WY into the north-central High Plains. This
impulse will continue east-northeastward and reach the Upper Midwest
tonight.

To the north of a roughly west/east-oriented front, bands of
convection (strong in some cases) are ongoing this morning across
eastern NE into southern IA and northwest IL. A few of the stronger
cores could produce hail this morning mainly from far eastern NE
into western IA. On the southern fringes of this early-day
convection and related cloud cover, the air mass is expected to
become moderately unstable (1500-2000 J per kg MLCAPE) late this
afternoon. This will especially be the case across southeast
NE/northeast KS ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, and
across IA near and south of a northward-shifting warm front. Current
thinking is that surface-based thunderstorms will initially develop
by mid/late afternoon across east/southeast NE and northeast KS into
far western IA.

Very steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy and
supercell-favorable wind profiles will support the possibility of
large hail. A tornado risk will also exist late this afternoon into
early/mid-evening, particularly across west/central IA in vicinity
of the northward-spreading effective warm front, where near-50-kt
winds around 1-2 km AGL will contribute to 0-1 km SRH on the order
of 250-300 m2/s2.

As forcing for ascent and low/mid-level winds increase, storms will
expand east/northeastward during the evening and overnight into
additional parts of IA, southern MN and the adjacent upper MS Valley
vicinity, including both elevated storms capable of hail and
near-surface-based storms capable of damaging winds/brief tornado
risk near the north/northeastward-shifting warm front.

Farther south, other severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
locally damaging winds will persist this evening into the overnight
across KS into western/northern MO near and ahead of the
southeastward-moving cold front.

...Southern Great Lakes to upper OH Valley...
Additional moistening will occur across the region today in advance
of a slow-southeastward-moving front. A weak westerlies-embedded
impulse, related to convection near the IA/IL Quad Cities this
morning, will continue eastward today and have at least some
influence on increasing diurnal convective development this
afternoon from northeast IL into northern portions of IN and OH.
Sufficient heating and destabilization in the presence of around 35
kt of effective shear may support storms capable of isolated severe
hail and locally damaging winds.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/19/2017
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2226302 · Replies: · Views: 5,931

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 14 2017, 09:17 PM


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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 13 2017, 07:10 PM) *
Way overachieved today, high was forecast to be mid 70's, with tomorrow reaching 79 and 81 Saturday.

We hit 84 degrees today, first 80+ day of the year, wonder what tomorrow and Saturday will end up with.

Hit 85 today, 90 tomorrow? blink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226088 · Replies: · Views: 50,823

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 13 2017, 07:10 PM


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Way overachieved today, high was forecast to be mid 70's, with tomorrow reaching 79 and 81 Saturday.

We hit 84 degrees today, first 80+ day of the year, wonder what tomorrow and Saturday will end up with.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226035 · Replies: · Views: 50,823

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 04:22 PM


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Storm to the east of Peoria, EM reported golf ball sized hail

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225902 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 03:48 PM


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QUOTE(melissa from illinois @ Apr 10 2017, 03:38 PM) *
except that they just added Sangamon and Christian, lol

It's your storm, too far south for me
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225896 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 03:28 PM


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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 10 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Nice line of storms in central IN.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225893 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 03:23 PM


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Never noticed this nifty little feature

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225891 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 03:20 PM


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Maybe, just maybe

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225888 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 02:03 PM


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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southeast Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Increasingly scattered storms are expected along and ahead
of a cold front into this evening, which may develop into a
fast-moving cluster. Severe hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Moline
IL to 40 miles east of Grand Rapids MI. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225882 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 12:11 PM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225867 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 12:07 PM


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Watch coming

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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern and central IL...southern
WI...northern IN...southwest Lower MI...and southern Lake MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 101657Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-
thunderstorm potential this afternoon. While the timing of more
robust severe-thunderstorm development is somewhat uncertain, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be likely within the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent water vapor imagery highlights a compact
midlevel vorticity maximum advancing across the middle MO Valley
region, with attendant speed maxima extending into the southern
Great Lakes region. Recent development of elevated convection has
been noted across eastern IA, in association with the left-exit
region of one of the speed maxima overlying a north-northeast/
south-southwest-oriented frontal zone. As the forcing for ascent
continues to overtake the western extent of partially modified Gulf
moisture in a broad warm sector, convection will likely increase
across parts of central and northern IL and southern WI during the
next couple of hours, and subsequently spread eastward and
east-northeastward into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

With only filtered sunshine over parts of the open warm sector, and
surface dewpoints generally in the lower/middle 50s, diurnal gains
in buoyancy will remain muted. Nonetheless, VAD wind profiles across
the area are sampling 50-60 kt of midlevel flow offering appreciable
deep shear with a component oriented orthogonal to the
convection-initiating boundary. As such, supercell structures will
be possible, with storm-scale upward accelerations bolstered by
steep midlevel lapse rates around 8.0-9.0 C/km overspreading the
area (based on 12Z observed soundings). As a result, large hail will
be possible -- particularly during incipient stages of convective
development. Subsequently, increasingly numerous cell interactions
should foster convective clustering and increasing damaging-wind
potential as this activity progresses to the east and
east-northeast.

Surface observations and short-range RAP forecast hodographs suggest
that locally backed surface winds will exist within an area bounded
by Peoria, Rockford, Chicago, and Valparaiso. This may support
sufficiently long/curved low-level hodographs for brief/transient
low-level mesocyclones, and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the
relatively scant low-level moisture and only modest gains in
diabatic surface-layer heating will greatly minimize low-level
buoyancy, which will tend to mitigate tornado potential.

..Cohen/Grams.. 04/10/2017
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225865 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 11:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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ILX

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Complex forecast scenario across central and southeast Illinois
today. A cold front, currently approaching west-central Illinois,
is still forecast to push east of the area by later this evening.
Most guidance still develops a line of showers/storms along & just
ahead of the front this afternoon. However, none of the current
guidance has a very good handle on the pre-frontal convection
across Illinois and Missouri. The thicker cloud cover and slower
warming resulting from the ongoing convection certainly has the
potential to minimize the development later today. Assuming we can
destabilize before the cold front arrives, a few strong to severe
storms appear likely this afternoon/early evening given the
moderately strong shear (bulk shear 45-50kts) and instability
(pre-frontal CAPEs as high as 2000 j/kg).

Have already made numerous adjustments to PoPs into this evening
to try and better capture the ongoing and expected convection. Did
not make major changes to other parameters, although if pre-
frontal convection continues to fire over the next few hours we
may have a hard time reaching forecast highs in some areas
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225863 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Text, I left off the TX portion

QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of hail and wind are most
likely through this evening across parts of the Midwest and
south-central Texas to the Ark-La-Tex.

...Midwest...
Widely scattered elevated storms are ongoing from MI to the Saint
Louis area. Isolated severe hail and gusty winds will be possible
with embedded stronger cores. In the wake of this midday activity,
surface-based storm development appears most likely to emanate out
of the Mid-MS Valley, near/south of a reforming surface cyclone that
should become the primary frontal wave downstream of the
eastward-moving shortwave trough over NE.

As diabatic heating continues ahead of the impinging cold front, 50s
surface dew points should result in a confined plume of weak to
moderate MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg amid steep mid-level lapse rates
near 8 degrees C/km from 700-500 mb. While low-level hodographs
should remain modest owing to veered flow, nearly straight-line
mid/upper-level hodographs should yield effective shear magnitudes
of 40-50 kt. This will likely support a mix of splitting transient
supercell structures growing into an MCS moving across the Lake MI
to Lake Huron area. A cluster of severe storms with hail, damaging
winds, and a brief tornado appears possible.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225862 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 11:40 AM


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It actually broadened a little bit.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225861 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 11:07 AM


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Forbes just put that out a half hour ago. I just don't see how we'll have the time to destabilize. Several rounds of showers already today and another one or two now far out. I'm more interested inbthe new SWODY1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225854 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 11:03 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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From: Springfield, IL
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225851 · Replies: · Views: 2,960

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