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> Dec 10-13 Plains/MW/GL/OV Blizzard OBS, Post Last Minute Forecasts & OBS
jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:19 AM
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Precipitation has started in the Northern and Southern Plains...

Game on!








Now the question remains...

Will they meet in the middle or go their own separate ways and then...if they do...how quickly? wink.gif



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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:27 AM
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To continue with my GGEM ENS post...look on 12Z 11DEC10.


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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StormStalker
post Dec 10 2010, 07:28 AM
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Let the games begin!

LOT finally has up its graphic.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot

This post has been edited by StormStalker: Dec 10 2010, 07:32 AM


--------------------
Winter 2011-2012 Snow Accumulation Log
NADA!

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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:33 AM
Post #4




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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/410 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010/

ALTHOUGH TRENDS OF THE NWP OUTPUT FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS STRONGLY
SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS BECOMING
LESS AND LESS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUE TO VACILLATE. 00Z NCEP OPERATIONAL MODEL
OUTPUT...AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WERE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
EARLIER SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE...AS WELL AS THE
00Z GEM AND ECMWF...ARE SUPPORTING EARIER MODEL TRENDS OF A SOMEWHAT
MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AN ENSEMBLE/CONSENSUS APPROACH IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT A STRONG NWD MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE MILD...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL FALL AS RAIN.

DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW UP DRAMATICALLY ON SATURDAY.
THE VERY PROGRESSIVE GFS ALLOWS INITIAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO ROAR
ACROSS AREA...SO RAPIDLY IN FACT THAT PRECIP WOULD BE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW AS FAR E AS STL 18-20Z. MOST OTHER OUTPUT IS
SLOWER...SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURRING W OF A COU-UIN
LINE DURING THE MORNING WITH THE AIRMASS COOLING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES BY 00Z. GEM THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND USED IT FOR FIRST GUESS
ON PTYPE. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL STILL BE
FALLING ONCE THE AMS COOLS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. ALL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN INTIAL SURGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING WITH DRY SLOT SWINGING INTO THE AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE QPF. I THINK THAT
THE FORCING THAT OCCURS WITH THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BE SO STRONG
THAT SOME PRECIP IS STILL LIKELY IN THE COLDER AIR AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY ROBUST...BUT AMOUNTS MAY BE QUITE LIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA THAT DIGGING SYSTEM WILL TRY TO CONTINUE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NE PART OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IT
MAY BE THAT THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALBEIT LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBILY LINGERING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SUNDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. AGAIN...THIS PRECIP TREND IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS...BUT IS STILL STRONGLY SUPPORTED
BY 00Z GEM...00Z ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN A BIG POINT OF
EMPHASIS. HAVE DEPICTED A 15-18 DEGREE TEMP DROP FROM THE E OZARKS
INTO STL AREA...AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE DROP ENDS UP BEING
EVEN LARGER THAN THAT IN SOME SPOTS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH AND SINGLE DIGIT ARCTIC AIR
WILL LIKELY SEND WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -10 RANGE OVER N PARTS OF
THE FA...WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO AS FAR S AS SE MO/S IL.

TRUETT

&&


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:34 AM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
538 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE/WINTER STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD TAKE HEAVIER SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES NORTH OF IL OVER MN/WI/MI.
FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR STILL EXPECTED TO USHER INTO IL SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY ON STRONG NW WINDS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW EXITED EAST OF IL BY MIDNIGHT WHILE LOW CLOUDS PASSING
EAST OF I-57 BY 3 AM AND SHOULD EXIT EAST OF IL BEFORE SUNRISE
LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CLOUDS DECREASING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSES EAST OF IL AND 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES EAST TOO. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY
WITH LIGHER W/SW WINDS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TEMPORARILY SETTING
UP OVER IL. MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE NE SNOW
PACK OF 2-6 INCHES AND LOW TO MID 40S SW AREAS AND SE IL WHERE NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES TO RACE/AMPLIFY EAST AND
DEVELOP 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER BY SUNSET
TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI BY SUNSET
SAT AND ACROSS LOWER MI TO LAKE HURON BY 12Z/6 AM SUNDAY AS IT
GRADUALLY DEEPENS. THIS STORM TRACK AGREED BY ECMWF/GFS/NAM MODELS
WHILE GEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND UKMET THE FURTHEST SOUTH.
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
INSENTROPIC LIFT AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF
PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S
NE SNOW PACK AND LOWER 30S SW AREAS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING
SAT MORNING AND APPEARS NE AREAS WILL HAVE SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING TO AVOID FREEZING RAIN BUT COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET
MIXED IN NE OF I-74. COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS IL DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS FALLING AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF I-57 AND IN EASTERN IL EARLY SAT EVENING.
SOME MODELS LIKE THE NAM SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SE IL
BY SAT NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWS MOVING INTO AREA LATER
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. APPEARS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM I-72 NORTH AND AROUND A HALF INCH IN SE IL. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD PASS EAST OF IL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO BE NEARLY STEADY SUNDAY WITH TEENS MONDAY AND
CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHERN AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON MORNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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garn
post Dec 10 2010, 07:35 AM
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WSW for North Central Iowa is canceled and replaced by a Blizzard Watch.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...lizzard%20watch

QUOTE
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...
NORTHWOOD...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...MASON CITY...POCAHONTAS...
HUMBOLDT...CLARION...HAMPTON...ALLISON...WAVERLY
424 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


* TIMING...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS LIKELY
DURING THE TRANSITION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AND WILL PEAK BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED OR
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING MAY ALSO OCCUR.
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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:35 AM
Post #7




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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521







QUOTE
A winter storm will impact the Midwest this weekend. Rain showers are expected to overspread Missouri and Illinois by Saturday morning ahead of a developing area of low pressure. Snow is expected to the north of the low across the Upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes region. Strong and gusty northwest winds will then usher very cold air into the area behind storm system. Very cold, blustery conditions are expected Saturday night through Sunday with flurries. Although there still remains some uncertainty regarding the track of the storm system, present indications are the heaviest snowfall will occur north and east of the forecast area. Those with travel plans this weekend should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:39 AM
Post #8




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QUOTE(garn @ Dec 10 2010, 06:35 AM) *
WSW for North Central Iowa is canceled and replaced by a Blizzard Watch.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...lizzard%20watch



Title changed to reflect. Thanks!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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kab2791
post Dec 10 2010, 07:49 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Member No.: 16,278





IWX going with the GGEM/UKMET...posssible warning criteria....what's interesting too is in the grids, they show their NW OH counties receiving 3-7" total. DTX is depressing.
QUOTE
.LONG TERM...
HANDLING OF VIGOROUS SW TROUGH INTO SRN WA THIS MORNING KEY TO XPCD
WX HERE TO START THE PD ON SUN. LG MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD CONTS WHICH
LENDS GREATER THAN AVG UNCERTAINTY. HWVR PER PREDICATED OUTLIER
STATUS OF OP GFS/ECMWF...MORE AGREEABLE CONSENSUS OF GEFS MEAN
AUGMENTED W/DETAILS OF SPRTG UKMET/GEM LEND GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
MAKING SOME HEDGED TWEAKS EARLY ON.


RAPIDLY BLDG DOWNSTREAM BLOCK TELECONNECTS WELL TO RAPID TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THUS DETAILS OF UKMET/GEM
FOLLOWED CLOSELY EARLY ON ESP W/POSITION/DEPTH OF MID LVL TROUGH
AXIS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HANDLING OF MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE
SUN/SUN NIGHT AND RAPID INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR SWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY.
LOCAL 12KM WRF BEARS THIS OUT W/RAPID DVLPMNT OF IMPRESSIVE
LONG AXIS LK ENHANCED PLUME SUN AFTN AND WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP A
MID LVL SEEDER-FEEDER OVERTOP BLDG LL LK AGGREGATE TROUGH TO SUSTAIN
SIG SNOWBANDS THROUGH MON. IN ADDN...VRY STG ISOLLABARIC PUSH XPCD
SUN INTO MON BTWN 1040MB SFC RIDGE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DEEP
SFC CYCLONE LIFTING THROUGH WRN QB WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDNL PROBS
W/BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DRAW POTENTIAL HEADLINES AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BUT XPC NW IN/SW MI WILL MEET
WARNING CONDS SUN-MON GIVEN COMB


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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dcharles33
post Dec 10 2010, 07:50 AM
Post #10




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Posts: 41
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From: se illinois
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QUOTE(StormStalker @ Dec 10 2010, 08:28 AM) *
Let the games begin!

LOT finally has up its graphic.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot



Not exactly a Big Daddy, road closer, or 1 in 1,000 storm is it. lol
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kab2791
post Dec 10 2010, 07:51 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Mt. Pleasant, MI
Member No.: 16,278





06Z RGEM...closing off
Attached Image


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Dec 10 2010, 07:52 AM
Post #12







Guests








Mornin JD

mid-level impulse over Texas ??? laugh.gif
yeah ....your bad and your nation wide

La Nina is Climate
Short Wave is Mid-Level Energy
that will enhance the
Surface Low Pressure which is your
Weather Maker
for those under 21 biggrin.gif


I promise to sit back and watch the fun for your crew
lean on them tto drop the model huggin
if they need a hug
then hug the NAM it should correct more each run now

Switch to the low level Cimss Steering current Map
to Back up your Track

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

rock solid guide (split the middle of the surface low and go)
Pineapple Pipeline[attachment=111192:dlm1.gif]

tom e
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WEATHERNUT09
post Dec 10 2010, 07:54 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 1,834
Joined: 17-November 08
From: North Central Ohio
Member No.: 16,178





Can someone shed some light on Northern Ohio's forecast.
1)NWS in Cleveland says Lp goes up into Michigan which puts us into the warm sector but has Snow Sun day and night and mentions real probleams with blowing and drifting.
2)So I guess what I was wondering if the main Lp has rain for Northern Ohio where is the snow and blowing snow on sunday coming from because is the backside snow really going to be that signif?


--------------------
North Central Ohio
50 miles from Cleveland and Toledo
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The Snowman
post Dec 10 2010, 07:54 AM
Post #14




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Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





Well, Accuweather still says 3-6 inches for Chicago.

But the models, NWS, HPC, etc. are all saying against that. The CPC still has to update.
Thoughts on Chicago's forecast?


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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kab2791
post Dec 10 2010, 07:57 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 12,766
Joined: 29-November 08
From: Mt. Pleasant, MI
Member No.: 16,278





Strange how the offices could be less coordinated than possible.
This hourly weather graph is for a city close to Toledo, in IWX's area: Shows about 7"
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w...p;dd=0&bw=0

And here's a city a few miles north in DTX's domain...about 1"
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w...p;dd=0&bw=0


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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jdrenken
post Dec 10 2010, 07:57 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 39,622
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





It's that time again...

00Z Teleconnects...

Overall...by the way...the trend of going almost neutral has calmed down and not as neutral.


West still has the "bump" on the 13th.


East


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jr9887
post Dec 10 2010, 08:10 AM
Post #17




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im confused as to what we are looking at here in SW ohio
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dcharles33
post Dec 10 2010, 08:12 AM
Post #18




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From: se illinois
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QUOTE(jr9887 @ Dec 10 2010, 09:10 AM) *
im confused as to what we are looking at here in SW ohio



We are all confused.
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WEATHERNUT09
post Dec 10 2010, 08:16 AM
Post #19




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QUOTE(jr9887 @ Dec 10 2010, 08:10 AM) *
im confused as to what we are looking at here in SW ohio


all of us are


--------------------
North Central Ohio
50 miles from Cleveland and Toledo
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forpetessake
post Dec 10 2010, 08:24 AM
Post #20




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From: Marseilles, IL
Member No.: 14,030





Apparently I am getting slush for Christmas.

BTW...morning everyone!
QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
607 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM WILL PREVAIL TODAY
AS THE AREA OF SNOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND RELATIVELY WARM
SWLY FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH...BRUSHING THE
IL/WI BORDER. THE FRONT WILL GO STATIONARY OVER SRN WI AS IT
EXTENDS WEST TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. UNDER AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TODAY INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORECAST
PICTURE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PCPN TO THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE RAIN AND SOME WILL BE
SNOW...AND IN BETWEEN WILL BE A WINTRY MIX. THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN ESPECIALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER RECENT RUNS ON THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE LOW CENTER...WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
THE TYPE OF PCPN AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF ONSET. FORTUNATELY...THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS IN SLOWLY
TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA...NRN IOWA AND THEN SRN
WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED THE MOST CONSISTENTLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN A FASTER AND MORE
SOUTHERLY OUTLIER. SO...FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED
CLOSE TO THE NAM/ECMWF IDEA OF TRACKING THE SFC LOW ON A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL
BE THAT PCPN TYPE WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL
BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO BRUSH THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BUT THROUGH THE MORNING...WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE COOL SFC
LAYER WILL SET UP SOME FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-39. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF...BUT
ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE PCPN SITUATION BECOMES PARTICULARLY
TRICKY. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IMPACTING NERN IL AND NWRN INDIANA.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A VERY PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRY SLOW PUSHING INTO NWRN IL...RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. FINALLY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF THE OCCLUDING LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
POINT...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING AND HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ROCKFORD AREA TO THE
LOW TEENS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND THE
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS WILL LIKELY ESCAPE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES.

KREIN



I tell you that main concern now, is that if we get all this rain and mixed bag of precip, once the temps drop there's gonna be a whole lotta icing going on.


--------------------
I am just an average guy, who loves the weather, drums, my wife, my kids and my God.

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