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> Jan. 1-Jan. 3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 22 2013, 12:00 PM
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I hate starting threads for storms this far out, but the next week of weather looks pretty boring at the moment...So here we go!

GFS has been showing something in this time frame for a couple days...Here is today's 12z run:

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Dec 30 2013, 04:18 PM
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JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 22 2013, 12:04 PM
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Final frame of the 0z EURO...


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RobB
post Dec 22 2013, 12:25 PM
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Why not....It is relatively quiet for a while and since I can't expect a white Christmas, I must hope for one close to New Years smile.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 22 2013, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 22 2013, 12:25 PM) *
Why not....It is relatively quiet for a while and since I can't expect a white Christmas, I must hope for one close to New Years smile.gif

Agreed 110% biggrin.gif
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WestLafayette62
post Dec 22 2013, 02:17 PM
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How much snow am I gonna get? Just kidding. Just wanted to post something. And yes, the next week looks extremely boring.


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If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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grace
post Dec 22 2013, 02:25 PM
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So...is it too soon to start arguing about whether this will trend NW or SE... tongue.gif
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grace
post Dec 22 2013, 02:30 PM
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We may have a hint if tele forecast comes to fruition:

AO


NAO


PNA


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Juniorrr
post Dec 22 2013, 03:09 PM
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Maybe we can get wintry precip instead of rain haha
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East Dubzz
post Dec 22 2013, 03:17 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2013, 03:47 PM
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This matches well with the bsr rule so is almost a for sure storm. As far as track the pattern setup heavily favors a coastal or apps runner but wouldn't rule out a miller b senario. The last 5 days ( yes I've been watching bc of the bsr relation) has favored the ov/gls
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 22 2013, 04:06 PM
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pretty sure the ratios with this storm will be 26.5 : 1 tongue.gif laugh.gif

what a winter....track track track....cheers and let's keep it rolling! Although, in all honesty I will probably be kinda hiding for a few days here...and start watching more post Christmas.

giddyup!

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WeatherMonger
post Dec 22 2013, 04:35 PM
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Gluttons for punishment laugh.gif
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J Wassmer
post Dec 22 2013, 05:14 PM
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Cold coming. Would love to track one or two snow chances for the lower Ohio Valley in the next ten days! laugh.gif


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Snow Heaven = Dec. 22, 2004 = 22" IMBY! = my avatar!
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2013, 05:40 PM
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The 18z gfs hints at a very fearful pattern if the telliconnections verify also. Bitterly cold strong hp works in and really supresses the storm. Pay more attention to the pattern for now....but telliconnection forecasts would support this senario, just hopefully not as strong

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Juniorrr
post Dec 22 2013, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 22 2013, 05:40 PM) *
The 18z gfs hints at a very fearful pattern if the telliconnections verify also. Bitterly cold strong hp works in and really supresses the storm. Pay more attention to the pattern for now....but telliconnection forecasts would support this senario

Farmer's Almanac supports a dry, snow flurry type New Years while it supports a coastal for the EC... Which I guess is good news for the hopes of an apps runner or something lol
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CIWeather
post Dec 22 2013, 05:52 PM
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Well, now that winter is here...no more winter storms! laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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MichelleOH
post Dec 23 2013, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 22 2013, 05:40 PM) *
The 18z gfs hints at a very fearful pattern if the telliconnections verify also.


Well, now I'm scared….
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RobB
post Dec 23 2013, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(MichelleOH @ Dec 23 2013, 09:16 AM) *
Well, now I'm scared….


I think you need not fear. I think when OhioBuck says something to fear, he probably means a LACK of fun and games for our area smile.gif
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StL weatherjunki...
post Dec 23 2013, 10:05 AM
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This 8-10 day 500 mb mean heights and anomalies is one of my favorite maps to monitor the long range with (The EURO is on the left the GFS is on the right).

Notes for this system:
1. A trough reminiscent of a polar vortex appears to be centered near the Hudson Bay, with troughing extending southwards along the east coast/NE.
2. Slightly less anomalous Pac NW Ridge

These two things together create a highly amplified pattern over the US ... but its amplified in the wrong way for a major storm to occur. This is because NW flow aloft dominates the middle of the country, which reduces the potential magnitude of available Gulf of Mexico moisture. Additionally, this prevents troughs from attaining a negative tilt, which would enhance vertical motions and thus increase QPF. It also means the system will likely be deamplifying as it tracks eastwards. Therefore, to sum it up a nuisance variety storm appears more likely than a major storm with widespread heavy snow or ice at this time.

However, with all this said the 00z Euro does show a substantial portion of the Aleutian low diving SE into the Midwest during this time period. As its tracks southeast it appears to pick up a weak cut off subtropical low located near SoCal. If reality plays out as the 00z Euro shows this could be a "bowling ball" kind of storm system that tracks nearly west to east with mostly wintry precipitation due to the magnitude of cold air in place.

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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RobB
post Dec 23 2013, 10:13 AM
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I miss the good ole "Bowling Ball" systems.
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