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> Post Tropical Storm Hermine, 9/04 2PM EST 70MPH - 999mb - Movement: ENE @ 6 mph
Ron in Miami
post Aug 18 2016, 01:09 PM
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This is the one that has a better chance at landfall...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of Cabo Verde
Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days
while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Sep 3 2016, 06:58 AM
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HarvardAce
post Aug 19 2016, 08:51 AM
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GFS has this skirting near the northeast Caribbean and Puerto Rico, past the Bahamas, and then intensifying quite a bit. Looks like it recurves just enough to avoid a direct hit on New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Obviously path 10-16 days out is not set in stone, but this looks like one to keep an eye on for the entire Atlantic coast.

GFS 6z @ 168
Attached Image


@ 276
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@ 324
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HarvardAce
post Aug 19 2016, 08:54 AM
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0z GFS Ensemble models:

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phillyfan
post Aug 19 2016, 11:36 AM
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12z GFS takes this over the islands, so much much weaker then the 6z was as a result. Run not complete yet, so let's see where it goes from there. Might be headed right towards southern Florida.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Aug 19 2016, 11:37 AM


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phillyfan
post Aug 19 2016, 11:45 AM
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Splits the gap south of Florida and into the gulf:


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SnowMan11
post Aug 19 2016, 11:46 AM
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12z GFS has 99L hitting the Florida panhandle.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 19 2016, 01:23 PM
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Would be quite the interesting outcome because the GFS has a large upper level feature that would cause 99L (or by then, likely a named storm) to entrain in the mid latitude flow. As depicted, verbatim, it would be text book (Literally, there was a text written on such scenarios by Wes Junker of the NWS) prolific rain event for the inland regions of the TN and OH valleys (similar in scope and nature to TS Lee of 2011)

I'm certain there will be various depictions of this one. Fiona will be a "forgotten" storm, so to speak, if anything close to the GFS version is to play out in the end.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 19 2016, 01:42 PM
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Brad P shows a good map and makes a great point but isn't that what Recon is for? To put data into the models in areas where its sparse.

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/766689507382927360



Eric F.

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NorEaster07
post Aug 19 2016, 02:10 PM
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Matt L.

"I'm gonna hop on team Euro for 99L and probably to-be 90L. This point of view won't generate clicks, likes, follows, or page views though"

"But the Euro nailed Sandy. And Joaquin."

"Euro vs. the world scenarios are tricky. But, honestly. In these scenarios, the Euro is often on to something."

"I also don't think it's coincidence that of the 50 Euro ensemble members last night, none developed 99L into anything of note within 5 days."


https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/766711526933671936
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/766711646567882752
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/766711986990088192
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/766713173537722370
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Undertakerson
post Aug 19 2016, 03:01 PM
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Of note - the GEFS also really don't do much with 99L until AFTER 5 days when most of the spaghetti develops a closed system near the Antiles

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_1...nsloopmref.html

I chalk that up to a semi hostile environment for 99L in the next few days, that gradually but certainly, give way to favorable environmental conditions once it reaches 15N/60W

For illustration sake here's Hr156 (MREF view) and Hr 276

There is no noticeable development prior to this hour

Attached Image


Then after 5 days more

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Notice that few of the members take this into the GOM as does the 12z Op, yet many appear to be an EC threat.

So, the Euro Op at 12z has what looks like it could be 99L - but could just as easily be 90L or a hybrid of both. With the 24 hour maps, it's very hard to tell. To me it looks as if 99L weakens on the Euro, leaving a focal point for 90L to come into it. (yellow circle)

Attached Image


Of course, there are no solid "take aways" at this juncture - yet, I'd be very reluctant to hang my hat on the one model that does less with this potential (Euro).





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Undertakerson
post Aug 19 2016, 03:10 PM
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The 2 p.m. EDT update on 99L

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a disorganized area of cloudiness and shower
activity. Development, if any, during the next couple of days
should be slow to occur as the system encounters a dry and stable
air mass.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves westward at about
15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 03:52 PM
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This hovmoller of the east atlantic should be a fun hotlink


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NorEaster07
post Aug 19 2016, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 19 2016, 04:10 PM) *
The 2 p.m. EDT update on 99L


" a tropical depression
could form early next week "


Almost got a chuckle out of that. I didn't think we would have to wait that long. I thought would be a depression this weekend.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Aug 19 2016, 04:01 PM
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 19 2016, 04:52 PM) *


This hovmoller of the east atlantic should be a fun hotlink


Here's the visible floater on 99L as well


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html




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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 04:26 PM
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Saharan air layer tracker. Look at Fiona putting her shoulder in it. smile.gif





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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 04:39 PM
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Looks like a little pathway of warm water with the warmest being up the coast.



Note this 7 day Reynolds map is valid on the 13th.

Current 5km tells the same story though



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 19 2016, 04:43 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 04:50 PM
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Wind shear. Check Fiona getting sheared on but the pocket of favorable conditions behind her and in front.



That sounded dirty lol

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 19 2016, 04:51 PM


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NorEaster07
post Aug 19 2016, 05:02 PM
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Discussion with Ed, Chris, and Allan.

Weakening trend on GFS as well as Euro. Slow to develop

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/766747220473360385
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 19 2016, 05:19 PM
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Interesting because I figured Fiona was putting just a big enough dent in both as I posted above.

Sure 99L might be slow to develop but there does appear to be some inkling of favorable conditions ahead. Just that wall of shear which will likely weaken and some spotty SAL on the lower side of scale. Or maybe the next wave off Africa will get the better conditions unsure.gif


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