Jan 25-26 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days) Forecast Options

[bradjl2009]

not sure why Pittsburgh NWS is so bullish on this - have not seen these totals talked about anywhere but there

I think after the main event, there are supposed to be left over light snow in Western PA that will increase the totals. I don't understand why they have a random hole of 2-4" in that part of Northwest PA surrounded by 4-6". I find it odd they shifted the 4-6" line further east after only a few hours of posting the map (I'm still in their 4-6 so we'll see) while jumping up all of the higher elevations to 8-10".

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Jan 24 2013, 11:22 PM

[Harleigh Hal]

**Lack of snow? Too cold to snow? No honest to gosh storms in sight? Problem solved!**



Snow gun plans - homemade snow maker cannon - SNOW!!!

Only $6.95!! Order before midnight tonight!!

Snow Guns on Ebay

It's a joke! Laugh.....

This post has been edited by Harleigh Hal: Jan 24 2013, 11:49 PM

[lfunk11]

I think after the main event, there are supposed to be left over light snow in Western PA that will increase the totals. I don't understand why they have a random hole of 2-4" in that part of Northwest PA surrounded by 4-6". I find it odd they shifted the 4-6" line further east after only a few hours of posting the map (I'm still in their 4-6 so we'll see) while jumping up all of the higher elevations to 8-10".

that map is much different than I originally posted - must have been updated recently. Morgantown was in the 6-8, but no longer. I am thinking 2-4" of really fluffy snow IMBY at ~1600' - possibly more. I am usually surprised low by big storms (WAA) and high (ratios) on small events like this .

[Harleigh Hal]

This storm LOOKS to be pulling in a long moisture trail starting in the four corners region.

Storm Water Vapor/Radar Loop

[lfunk11]

**Lack of snow? Too cold to snow? No honest to gosh storms in sight? Problem solved!**



Snow gun plans - homemade snow maker cannon - SNOW!!!

Only $6.95!! Order before midnight tonight!!

Snow Guns on Ebay

It's a joke! Laugh.....

there are real products on the web you can buy

[Harleigh Hal]

there are real products on the web you can buy

I know, but didn't want to get in trouble with the mods so I killed the real link

It was a joke, but nobody appreciates my sarcastic humor, I guess

[bradjl2009]

that map is much different than I originally posted - must have been updated recently. Morgantown was in the 6-8, but no longer. I am thinking 2-4" of really fluffy snow IMBY at ~1600' - possibly more. I am usually surprised low by big storms (WAA) and high (ratios) on small events like this .

I was surprised to see Morgantown in the 6-8" and thought that was over doing it. I don't see how anyone not in the mountains could get above 6 inches. I think since you're higher in elevation you'll probably do fine and I think you could probably see up to 6 inches. I was surprised to see a warning issued for the mountains. It will be interesting how this pans out because even the TV stations are calling for 3-6" in the metro area though I'm expecting amounts to be more on the 3 or 4 inch side than the 5 or 6 inches.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Jan 25 2013, 12:24 AM

[weatherDCA]

I know this is a non event, but I am surprised that no one is here to at least disect the SREF or the most recent NAM.

[wtkidz]

Latest Computer forecest on Sterlings site

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[let it dnow]

I know this is a non event, but I am surprised that no one is here to at least disect the SREF or the most recent NAM.

can't really say that my radio station is saying 1 to 3 and a little more by the cost at least it something I just got home from work.

This post has been edited by let it dnow: Jan 25 2013, 03:37 AM

[Undertakerson]

Uh - Oh, NWS State College disco has a bit of downer news

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...

LEFT FCST CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD. STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD...
BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE SNOW TO HOLD OFF TO LATE MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. THE AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY...THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FORTHE SNOW TO GET
GOING. AS OF 430 AM...SNOW A WAYS OFF...A LOT OF MID LVL
RETURN ON RADAR ETC. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS HINT AT .15 QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
PA...THUS ABOUT 3 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES OF SNOW. OFTEN THE
HEAVIEST IS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. EXPECT A RATIO
OF 20 TO 1.

MAIN THING LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
THAT MODELS HINTED AT EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE. MAIN THING GOING FOR THE SYSTEM IS THE STRONG
UPPER LVL JET.

Just last night, I was saying that to me the WAA seemed to look decent enough, now I have to wonder. We have known for some time that the systems are comparatively moisture poor. SPC analysis shows a really strong JS approaching 140 at 300mb.

Skew T suggests a start of about 1400 for C PA. That indicates that all the workers, looking for their weekend, will be on the road at once during the start. Ugh.

[Dsty2001]

Does anybody else think this looks pretty potent on radar right now?

[lfunk11]

I was surprised to see Morgantown in the 6-8" and thought that was over doing it. I don't see how anyone not in the mountains could get above 6 inches. I think since you're higher in elevation you'll probably do fine and I think you could probably see up to 6 inches. I was surprised to see a warning issued for the mountains. It will be interesting how this pans out because even the TV stations are calling for 3-6" in the metro area though I'm expecting amounts to be more on the 3 or 4 inch side than the 5 or 6 inches.

those numbers dropped again on the NWS site - I am thinking 2-4" here. I am fine with that.

[Undertakerson]

Upstream obsx - Chicago reporting snow - however

RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN OVER WI SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
IL AND EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IN
BUT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST
HOUR ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
CONTINUED PRECIPITATING INTO THE DRY LOW LAYERS HAS FINALLY
OVERCOME IT THERE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW
STARTING TO FALL.

FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS IS PROGGED TO FALL OF QUICKLY BEFORE
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE BEST TEMPERATURES FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ARE QUICKLY DRIES BY MID MORNING. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE SNOW TO
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND AND THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS
AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

Of course, they are too far north to feel any influence from the WAA of the southern system.

[baltimorewisher8...]

Does anybody else think this looks pretty potent on radar right now?

let me take a guess.. you were looking at accuweathers radar?

[Undertakerson]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vi...3&region=us



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 25 2013, 06:36 AM

[baltimorewisher8...]

wow euro cut in half our already cut in half snowfall amounts lol... .5 for nyc area lol

[MDSnowKing]

I'm officially convinced every storm this winter will be Trace to 1". Just like the first 5 or so so far.

[baltimorewisher8...]

NAM has very little and i mean little to no accumulation for anyone north/east of the delmarva

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/...WI&hour=026


Ruc -- says ehh what snow? .1-1" for everyone

http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/displayMapLocalDis...=t3&adtfn=1

RAP -- PA does slightly better... everyone else .1 - 1"

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMa...=t3&adtfn=1

[NorEaster07]

Heading to work, OBS thread opened. Be safe.