 Feb 10-12 Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Short Range: Reality |
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 Feb 1 2013, 09:46 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371  |
GFS has been consistent with a storm in this time frame. I know it is a bit early but the thread is already up on the american forums and it should be interesting to track.
graphic_3.png ( 54.5K )
Number of downloads: 5
graphic_4.png ( 54.92K )
Number of downloads: 3This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Feb 10 2013, 10:01 AM -------------------- |
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Feb 1 2013, 09:58 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
West Pacific pattern favours a west to east track through the OV/Gl's and into the northeast.
ecm_mslp_npac_5.png ( 354K )
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ecm_mslp_npac_6.png ( 360.88K )
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Feb 1 2013, 09:55 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046 |
QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Feb 1 2013, 09:46 PM)  GFS has been consistent with a storm in this time frame. I know it is a bit early but the thread is already up on the american forums and it should be interesting to track.
graphic_3.png ( 54.5K )
Number of downloads: 5
graphic_4.png ( 54.92K )
Number of downloads: 3Hey Blizz.....I have been hearing things about this storm, too. It is a miss for S.Ont as of right now though, right? |
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Feb 1 2013, 10:00 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
QUOTE(winter48 @ Feb 1 2013, 09:55 PM) Hey Blizz.....I have been hearing things about this storm, too. It is a miss for S.Ont as of right now though, right? It gives a swath of snow throughout southern parts of the province but their is no point in looking at specifics now. Overall pattern is important including positioning of blocking, pacific pattern, phasing of the PV and western ridge strength. This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Feb 1 2013, 10:03 PM -------------------- |
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Feb 1 2013, 10:02 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046 |
QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Feb 1 2013, 10:00 PM) It gives a swath of snow throughout southern parts of the province but their is no point in looking at specifics now. Overall pattern is important including positioning of blocking, pacific pattern, phasing of the PV and western ridge strength. Cool, thanks! 
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Feb 2 2013, 05:45 AM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
00z ECMWF @ hour 216:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif ( 129.98K )
Number of downloads: 3Hour 240:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 134.75K )
Number of downloads: 306z GFS @ hour 216:
gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.36K )
Number of downloads: 3Hour 228:
gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.06K )
Number of downloads: 3The GFS follows this storm with an interesting-looking coastal system @ hour 312:
gfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Feb 2 2013, 08:49 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
0z CMC:
P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif ( 216.03K )
Number of downloads: 1
P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif ( 220.41K )
Number of downloads: 2-------------------- |
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Feb 2 2013, 08:52 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
NAO switching from positive to negative during this time frame which is a sign that a big storm is likely.
GEFS:
gefs_nao_00.png ( 69.97K )
Number of downloads: 1ECMWF:
ecmwf_nao_bias.png ( 356.76K )
Number of downloads: 2-------------------- |
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Feb 2 2013, 09:01 AM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046 |
QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Feb 2 2013, 08:49 AM) 0z CMC:
P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif ( 216.03K )
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P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif ( 220.41K )
Number of downloads: 2Looks juicy. Hopefully frozen juice though.....  |
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Feb 2 2013, 09:14 AM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,118 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 2 2013, 05:45 AM) Oh wow look, another GLC style according to the Euro, I'm detecting a pattern of these type of storms lately 
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Feb 2 2013, 10:15 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046 |
[quote name='JJ Snowlover' date='Feb 2 2013, 09:14 AM' post='1678933']
Oh wow look, another GLC style according to the Euro, I'm detecting a pattern of these type of storms lately [/quote Oh no. Rain? Why oh why mother nature???? 
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Feb 2 2013, 11:38 AM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z GFS @ hour 204:
gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.11K )
Number of downloads: 3Hour 216:
gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 57.8K )
Number of downloads: 3Hour 228:
gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.53K )
Number of downloads: 4 |
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Feb 2 2013, 03:14 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z ECMWF @ hour 192:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 118.01K )
Number of downloads: 3Hour 216:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif ( 127.79K )
Number of downloads: 2Hour 240:
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif ( 130.98K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Feb 2 2013, 04:57 PM
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#14
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 59 Joined: 4-April 12 From: Kanata, Ontario Member No.: 26,512 |
Ooooo boy.... Driving from Ottawa to Syracuse on the 12th and flying to Florida on the 13th via JFK... I hate to root against a big storm but in this case... NO STORM NO!!!
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Feb 2 2013, 05:45 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,017 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
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Feb 3 2013, 05:48 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
06z GFS @ hour 204:
gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 56K )
Number of downloads: 100z ECMWF @ hour 192:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif ( 124.95K )
Number of downloads: 1Hour 216:
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif ( 132.13K )
Number of downloads: 5 |
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Feb 3 2013, 09:16 AM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,118 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 3 2013, 05:48 AM) Ugly for Ottawa and Montreal at that hour, looks like rain, nice for TO. Oh Euro, why do you hate us lately... |
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Feb 3 2013, 09:31 AM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Feb 3 2013, 09:16 AM) Ugly for Ottawa and Montreal at that hour, looks like rain, nice for TO. Oh Euro, why do you hate us lately... Seems like incremental improvements each run or so but we're not quite there yet. It was a really nasty cutter on some earlier incarnations of the Euro, plus there's lots of time for more adjustments (hopefully to the cold side of things). |
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Feb 3 2013, 11:49 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,842 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
12z GFS @ hour 192:
gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.71K )
Number of downloads: 6Hour 204:
gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 56.79K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Feb 3 2013, 11:56 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 3 2013, 11:49 AM) 12z GFS @ hour 192:
gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.71K )
Number of downloads: 6Hour 204:
gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 56.79K )
Number of downloads: 3Hi Bigmt....... To me, this looks like a decent storm but do you think we have any chance of seeing a good snowfall out of it here in S. Ont? I know it's really far out still but was just wondering what your thoughts regarding what you see right now. Thanks! |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 04:44 PM |