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idecline
Posted on: Today, 05:09 PM


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...many places in the Bay Area saw over an inch of rain in the last storm...Thursday saw moderate rain ...
Attached Image

...clearing was widespread on Friday...and overnight temperatures dropped significantly into Friday night...
...the famous 'ridge of La Nina' is still nowhere to be seen...yes...we have not had a tropical-type link for excessive rainfall this year...the Bay Area is getting it's somewhat normal chances for rainfall...now...
Attached Image

...if we look at the WV...not only is troughing starting to again roll over the big blocking high to our west...there looks to be a possible input from some 'tropical players' unsure.gif ( music? )with the next possible strong storm rolling down along the jet stream route made possible by our 'displace' blocker... dry.gif

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...oceanic forecasts clearly show this is going to be a 'doozy'
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...with some sub 980mb rocketship taking off towards Alaska(racing the HP for position)...or jettisoned to 'The Great White North' eh...?

...could this begin a pattern change entering the 1st week of December?...

...keep your eyes and ears open...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2253084 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Attached Image
...the La Nina HP off the California coast is non-existent (similar to 2016-17 winter) and the hp 'block' is way west at 160W...what is so unusual about a block...trough...HP...trough pattern running W-E from the N. Pacific...?

...it says ridge over central NPAC...trough over West...ridge over MW...troughing for EC...
OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached Image


so the block is still there...and large extratropical storms will continue to enter the West...

...pattern change will occur once the 'blocking' moves east or perhaps even towards southeast direction...

...until then...look at satellite maps and 'forecast' maps...all of the 'models' and 'algorithm' views are not 'seeing' the Big Picture... wink.gif

...or perhaps idee is just "ranting' again... laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252968 · Replies: · Views: 55,985

idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:34 PM


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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 17 2017, 03:20 PM) *
So the 7 day forecasts from a week ago aren't verifying well. I'm not sure how this image helps with interpreting today's model guidance other than confirming that, on average, the Euro ensemble mean is still the best model guidance available.


a note from an amateur... dry.gif


...could visual observation (which is the 'reality' behind so-called 'indices') be somewhat more accurate...?

...in other words...doesn't weather forecasting involve visual observation and extrapolation as much as watching models and indices...aren't we often putting "the cart in front of the horse"?

Go Organic... wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252967 · Replies: · Views: 55,985

idecline
Posted on: Nov 15 2017, 07:27 PM


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...ummmm...lots of Pacific energy...could this create trough in MW?...and on to NE...???
Attached Image

...and with upper air seeming to be on a conveyor belt...check out OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached Image


...so a 'storm'...with hurricane force wind up in AK/Aleutians est 979mb double-barreled low chasing a trough into the West Coast...progged to move south to about 45N 155W moving into morning of 11/20... doesn't look like a doozy moving across the CONUS during Thanksgiving week??? ...with a vigorous jet to propel it east...

...the West Coast is certainly going to feel some form of continuing pre-cip-itation.....
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252655 · Replies: · Views: 55,985

idecline
Posted on: Nov 15 2017, 07:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Sanger, CA on 11/16/2017

Joliet, IL on 11/17/2017

Clarksville, TN on 11/18/2017

Astoria, OR on 11/19/2017

Henderson, NV on 11/20/2017



  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2252654 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 09:13 PM


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QPF's.... blink.gif
Attached Image


...this is a LaNina storm ? ...looks like a wonderfully strong extratropical storm...with PDO enhanced tropical connections to me...just sayin'...
Attached Image

...and this is the WV...
Attached Image

...looking to the East...well...the MidWest will get some nice cold mixed with vigorous moisture...and...NE...??

Attached Image


...getting stormy...eh? plans for Thanksgiving...??? huh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252583 · Replies: · Views: 55,985

idecline
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 09:01 PM


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QUOTE(mmi16 @ Nov 8 2017, 08:38 PM) *
Spam-O-Matic StatisticsSpam-O-Matic Statistics
252435 Spammers Denied Registration
3267 Spammers Permanently Banned
3378 Spammers submitted to StopForumSpam
10 Spammers submitted to Akismet
3681 Spammy Posts Automatically Moderated


Spam...Spam...Spam...Spammity Spam!!!!!!

Attached Image Attached Image



  Forum: Games, Contests, Etc. · Post Preview: #2252580 · Replies: · Views: 49,308

idecline
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 08:49 PM


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Evansville IN on 11/15/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2252578 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 08:21 PM


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...nice bit of rainshowers overnight...again we have a large low forming in the GOA...and a tropical link too wink.gif
Attached Image

...this is the IR satellite for a change...visible connection to forming low pressure west of California...
Attached Image

...and the WV loop confirms how much moisture is being entrained into this system to our north...the large low pressure in the GOA is spinning like a cog driving cooler air (troughing) southward...in the meanwhile it is augmenting the lift and convective abilities of this first system to pull through the Bay Area tomorrow...many are forecasting heavy rain in coastal mountains because of the high precipitation values in the moisture...

...by Thursday the real fun begins as the entire system to our north sags into the Bay Area...with potential for strong winds and rain into the weekend...hopefully with clearing after that... unsure.gif

...a definite "La Nada" storm... laugh.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2252575 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 05:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Meh-lville, MO on 11/14/2017 rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2252444 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 05:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Warning: this entire post is nothing more than another of idee's incessant rants and raves of a 'madman'...please do not utilize or base any important activities upon idee rants and raves.. dry.gif

...more of idee's inanities...based on his 50-year plus observation of California (and Eastern Pacific basin wx)

Attached Image
rolleyes.gif ...the above does not look a 'La Nina' type of configuration...where is the massive NS high pressure?...storms seem to be entering the west at a constant flow right now...

...and the 96hr OPC forecast is showing a 'massive' extratropical system moving in in time for EC 'Thanksgiving week...
Attached Image


rolleyes.gif ...idee (the hobbyist) tongue.gif may have talked about this about a month or so ago...

...while 'real' mets and students are the Pro's...idee still believes that even a hobbyist has some knowledge...

__________________________________________________
___________________________________...more idee ramblings... unsure.gif
...the jet has begun to reach down into Northern California...in spite of the so-called building La Nina...idee has a feeling that the anomalous high pressure orientation in the NE pacific basin along with strong jet activity will again allow storms to dive a bit further south this fall/winter into the SF bay area...several 'storms' have already moved through with augmentation of the front as it dove southwards from the GOA...the position of the seasonal low pressure in the GOA is vital to the path of winter storms entering the West Coast of the US...

...it seems that with the PNA pattern and the PDO still continuing to create a more active pattern into California that 'modern' forecasts are predicting...(last year was a prime example of the 'mistake' of the ENSO pattern being 'over-whelming')...La Nina only accentuates the 'normal' winter pattern along the West Coast...El Nino is the more 'aberrational' of the multi-dimensional ENSO pattern extremes...also my observance of the SST's in the tropical Pacific seem to indicate, that similar to last year the weakness and orientation of HP in the NE pacific basin will again allow for southward extension of storm activity...also if no one else has noticed...idee would 'unqualified' analyze the La Nina pattern as being a split flow...i.e. that the Southern Hemisphere portion of the pattern is in 'full-bloom'...but anomalous warm waters off the Baja area again will 'simulate' some El Nino type activity in the sub-tropical jet stream...indicative of the HP pattern that the recent tropical seasons has created...along with PDO potentiality the "La Nina" will not be an overall large mechanism in the forcing for this fall/winter...in fact as we roll into 2018 the weather could be similar to last winter...just a bit colder and northerly based...

QUOTE
As December becomes January, the NAO should become increasingly positive with a contemporaneous decrease in PNA values, yielding an atmospheric circulation more reflective of benign/mild La Nina years. This circulation could very well be the mainstay to varying degrees for much of the remainder of meteorological winter. Snowfall should be above to much above normal across the northern tier into northern New England this month, with precipitation running above average. The variation in the Pacific jet will continue to favor Aleutian ridging with periods of poleward ridging into the Arctic. This will permit arctic blasts to sweep through the Northeast, but the spasmodic pattern will preferentially favor warmth to the southeast of the Great Lakes.


...this is an excerpt from forecast linked by JD...http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252443 · Replies: · Views: 231,105

idecline
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 05:04 PM


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...the 'rainy' season has arrived in Northern California...yes...we have a potential La Nina...but HP is still WB...
Attached Image
...and the 96hr OPC Pacific shows the 'Thanksgiving' storm wink.gif starting to head into the NE pacific basin blink.gif
Attached Image

...the jet has begun to reach down into Northern California...in spite of the so-called building La Nina...idee has a feeling that the anomalous high pressure orientation in the NE pacific basin along with strong jet activity will again allow storms to dive a bit further south this fall/winter into the SF bay area...several 'storms' have already moved through with augmentation of the front as it dove southwards from the GOA...the position of the seasonal low pressure in the GOA is vital to the path of winter storms entering the West Coast of the US...

...it seems that with the PNA pattern and the PDO still continuing to create a more active pattern into California that 'modern' forecasts are predicting...(last year was a prime example of the 'mistake' of the ENSO pattern being 'over-whelming')...La Nina only accentuates the 'normal' winter pattern along the West Coast...El Nino is the more 'aberrational' of the multi-dimensional ENSO pattern extremes...also my observance of the SST's in the tropical Pacific seem to indicate, that similar to last year the weakness and orientation of HP in the NE pacific basin will again allow for southward extension of storm activity...also if no one else has noticed...idee would 'unqualified' analyze the La Nina pattern as being a split flow...i.e. that the Southern Hemisphere portion of the pattern is in 'full-bloom'...but anomalous warm waters off the Baja area again will 'simulate' some El Nino type activity in the sub-tropical jet stream...indicative of the HP pattern that the recent tropical seasons has created...along with PDO potentiality the "La Nina" will not be an overall large mechanism in the forcing for this fall/winter...in fact as we roll into 2018 the weather could be similar to last winter...just a bit colder and northerly based...

QUOTE
As December becomes January, the NAO should become increasingly positive with a contemporaneous decrease in PNA values, yielding an atmospheric circulation more reflective of benign/mild La Nina years. This circulation could very well be the mainstay to varying degrees for much of the remainder of meteorological winter. Snowfall should be above to much above normal across the northern tier into northern New England this month, with precipitation running above average. The variation in the Pacific jet will continue to favor Aleutian ridging with periods of poleward ridging into the Arctic. This will permit arctic blasts to sweep through the Northeast, but the spasmodic pattern will preferentially favor warmth to the southeast of the Great Lakes.


...this is an excerpt from forecast linked by JD...http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2252439 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Nov 2 2017, 08:41 PM


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Sardis, MS on 11/03/2017

Veedersburg, IN on 11/04/2017

Maumee, OH on 11/05/2017

Worcester, MA on 11/06/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2251310 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 05:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Attached Image
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2251030 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 05:51 PM


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...been much cooler...just in time for Hallow'een "trick-or-treater's"...breezy with modifying air...storms?
Attached Image

...water vapor imagery shows the NW push of cooler air coming down from GOA...any moisture involved?
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...some were predicting rain into the North Bay area as soon as Thursday... rolleyes.gif

...looks to be light rain possibilities into Friday at best...for now... unsure.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2251029 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 05:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Oct 27 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Hollow Creek, KY on 10/31/2017


Sinton, TX on 10/31/2017

St. Francisville, LA on 11/01/2017

Sardis, MS on 11/02/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2251028 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Oct 27 2017, 07:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,090
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Kendall, FL on 10/28/2017

Killingworth, CT on 10/29/2017

Hallowell, ME on 10/30/2017

Hollow Creek, KY on 10/31/2017

Attached Image
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2250473 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Oct 20 2017, 07:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...quite a bit of wind and rain overnight from the tail of a front...a Pacific storm system got through the HP...
Attached Image

...now we will have NW winds and cooler air behind the front...with a strong jet stream still entering the Pacific NorthWest...a ridge may build along the California coast early next week allowing temperatures to rise...and a potential 'offshore' event (not uncommon for late October)...and raise Bay Area temperatures into the 80's and 90's inland ...

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...we will see if the so-called PNA ridge will build as strongas all the 'acronym' watchers believe it will...

idee still believes the strong jet coupled with 'oblong' shaped high pressure systems in the eastern Pacific will allow fronts to dive a bit deeper down the California coast this winter...with a La Nina(or La Nada) pattern allowing rainfall in the Northern part of California to remain fairly 'normal'...Southern California will likely be much drier than last winter...we shall see... wink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2249808 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Oct 20 2017, 07:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Fort Sill, OK on 10/21/2017

Metropolis, IL on 10/22/2017

Sapphire,NC on 10/23/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249806 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 08:43 PM


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...Pacific is starting to push the high pressure...foggy weather and ocean air will finally ease fire issues...
...even better is a chance for rain into Thursday and Friday...especially for the North Bay Area... smile.gif
Attached Image

...front is now starting to make headway towards California...amplitude in the jet makes for a possibility of precipitation...OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...long term there is a typhoon in the Western Pacific...if it is a re-curving storm this may be a TR scenario...

wishing all the best to friends and co-workers in Santa Rosa...Solano, Sonoma, and Napa counties will survive
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2249624 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Attached Image

the center of 'dry' air is still right over the Northern California fire zone...high winds again a possibility...

hopefully an onshore push begins Monday ...as the high pressure wanes in front of an approaching cold front and associated trough...this could bring rain to the Bay Area late next week...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2249511 · Replies: · Views: 70,212

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,090
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From: uncertain
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Keokuk, IA on 10/14/2017

Girard, OH on 10/15/2017

Cortez, CO on 10/16/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249510 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM) *

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 12 2017, 11:42 PM) *
Strong Pacific jet from Korea to South Dakota. Alrighty then.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2017, 05:27 PM) *
Patience...


And this should help


...check that jet...Wow! ...looks like two troughs into the West before the end of October...

...seems like the PDO+ is "not dead yet" as many have 'preconceived'... dry.gif ...and the Pacific jet stream is starting to roar as it did last fall...could it be that observation of trends is more significant than all of these 'acronyms' that are only 'representative' of what is really occurring and might occur in the future???

...it still seems that this La Nina mode may be at it's maximum...with neutral conditions ahead, a PDO+, and a very strong Pacific jet...can anyone say 2016-2017 similarity (for the West Coast)...with storms just a bit further north with a little less tropical influence...the PDO trends often last for many, many years...thus the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation"...major changes do not occur overnight or even in a week or two...IMHO unsure.gif huh.gif wink.gif

QUOTE
...again these are idee's non-certified attempts at reminding 'Mets and aspiring mets' that the weather is free for anyone to enjoy, talk about, and attempt to predict...there is no corner on the market or should there be...poor attempts at prognostication come from professionals and amateurs alike...the internet has only given some a place to disseminate mis-information about all subjects...whether or weather... anyone can post info that can potentially be misleading or even harmful to others...


idee rant #22, 917 is above...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249508 · Replies: · Views: 55,985

idecline
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:27 PM


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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 9 2017, 11:13 PM) *
I also think it's pretty neat though when it allows your Joe Renkens to notice the BSR & Josh Herman type minds to develop the RRWT models. For those guys to see things the educated in the field haven't is very needed. Without access those types of contributions to the meteorology would never occur.


Excellent answer...Science progresses slowly...even the 'dis-dained' (i.e. Sir Gilbert Walker)
QUOTE
Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker, CSI, FRS (14 June 1868 – 4 November 1958) was an English physicist and statistician of the 20th century. Walker studied mathematics and applied it to a variety of fields including aerodynamics, electromagnetism and the analysis of time-series data before taking up a teaching position at Cambridge University. Although he had no experience in meteorology, he was recruited for a post in the Indian Meteorological Department where he worked on statistical approaches to predict the monsoons. He developed the methods in the analysis of time-series data that are now called the Yule-Walker equations. He is known for his groundbreaking description of the Southern Oscillation, a major phenomenon of global climate, and for discovering what is named after him as the Walker circulation, and for greatly advancing the study of climate in general. He was also instrumental in aiding the early career of the Indian mathematical prodigy, Srinivasa Ramanujan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Walker

It takes Scientists from all disciplines to discover new meaning and advances in the world, especially something that it is inherently linked to all sorts of the Earth's and the Universe's processes...um... like weather...
rolleyes.gif

Sometimes a view of a satellite picture is all a forecast needs... the stubborn behavior of High Pressure, or oceanic effects or changes, or even Solar flares and radiation can change the weather patterns...Meteorology is definitely not the 'end all, be all' way to view the phenomena of weather ...or especially all the associated disciplines...

Warning: Above is idee's personal opinion...and other's opinion's may differ... wink.gif

Now...the Weather...

Attached Image

...just looking...doesn't it seem that the Pacific is winding up it's gears...readying itself to send storms into the CONUS...?

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...and if the RRWT is a 'factual' entity...doesn't there appear to a lot of 'amplitude' already forming in the potential 'storm track'...and what would this pattern look like in about ~52.7 days tongue.gif as it starts to 'progress'?

idee meanderings...signing off..... huh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249398 · Replies: · Views: 231,105

idecline
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,090
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From: uncertain
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Delmont, PA on 10/11/2017

Bluffton, SC on 10/12/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249396 · Replies: · Views: 46,809

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