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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
JDClapper
post Nov 14 2017, 09:44 PM
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Looks familiar blink.gif

Attached File  1jpeg.jpg ( 158.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  1gif.gif ( 109.39K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 21 2017, 10:20 PM
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There's been some discussion in the LR Winter thread on this.. so, figured I share this here..

This was 11/10

Attached File  1gif.gif ( 46.98K ) Number of downloads: 1


Current RRWT oscillation period has 44-47 as the top

http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html

11/10 + 44 through 47 = ...

12/24 - 12/27

Poc noted this: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2253284

Josh noted this: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2253291

BSR not quite there (only out to ~12/12) ..

Since models aren't providing something exciting to track, maybe OF can. smile.gif

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Nov 21 2017, 10:20 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2017, 10:37 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 14 2017, 08:44 PM) *
Looks familiar blink.gif

Attached File  1jpeg.jpg ( 158.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  1gif.gif ( 109.39K ) Number of downloads: 1


Cranky sent me this...

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Screenshot_20171121_213624.png ( 439.22K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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JDClapper
post Nov 21 2017, 10:37 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2017, 11:37 PM) *
Cranky sent me this...


The smiley face is the cherry on top. laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2017, 12:07 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 21 2017, 10:20 PM) *
There's been some discussion in the LR Winter thread on this.. so, figured I share this here..

This was 11/10

Attached File  1gif.gif ( 46.98K ) Number of downloads: 1


Current RRWT oscillation period has 44-47 as the top

http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html

11/10 + 44 through 47 = ...

12/24 - 12/27

Poc noted this: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2253284

Josh noted this: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2253291

BSR not quite there (only out to ~12/12) ..

Since models aren't providing something exciting to track, maybe OF can. smile.gif


This feature and flow just won't stop appearing on LR gfs




rolleyes.gif smile.gif

Also saw MJ make note of the 1052 over the NP



Ofm is fun

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2017, 12:09 PM


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JDClapper
post Nov 22 2017, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 22 2017, 01:07 PM) *
This feature and flow just won't stop appearing on LR gfs


rolleyes.gif smile.gif

Also saw MJ make note of the 1052 over the NP



Ofm is fun


Not a bad start for a signal of some storminess around the Holiday..

We have the NP, RRWT and Hr 300 BSR so far... just need some EAR, LJS and Hr 0 BSR and then we play the waiting game. laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2017, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 22 2017, 01:37 PM) *
Not a bad start for a signal of some storminess around the Holiday..

We have the NP, RRWT and Hr 300 BSR so far... just need some EAR, LJS and Hr 0 BSR and then we play the waiting game. laugh.gif


12z had a monster 950mb retrograde around the what would be ~dec 26th



Fwiw this is an expiremental mashup of different organic tools of sorts

Glad a few on board are playing along

smile.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2017, 02:11 PM


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idecline
post Nov 22 2017, 08:07 PM
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...is the pattern already setting up ?
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 310.13K ) Number of downloads: 3


...and is 'progress' being made...?
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 307.82K ) Number of downloads: 2


...and 'not to mention'...can you imagine this 'line-up' if it re-occurs in the RRWT...some say 44-47...idee say ~52...(after the 'apparent' slowness of the RRWT function courtesy of our 'blocking friend named Rex'... dry.gif

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Hey...idee...you are a turkey...!
Attached File  download.jpg ( 6.87K ) Number of downloads: 2



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Happy Thanksgiving!


This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 22 2017, 08:12 PM


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MaineJay
post Nov 23 2017, 06:56 AM
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Looking for some critique. Is this close enough? I finally found an overlay that works, unfortunately I can't manipulate it so the projection lines up better. A keen observer will notice it's actually an SPC meso radar image . smile.gif

Himawari-8 imagery

This was my fist attempt
Attached File  ezgif_4_2f97ef6a23.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 3



I thought this one might be better for the east coast.
Attached File  ezgif_4_359cf23df8.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 2


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24

Thoughts? Am I being too nit-picky?


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 23 2017, 10:47 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 23 2017, 06:56 AM) *
Looking for some critique. Is this close enough? I finally found an overlay that works, unfortunately I can't manipulate it so the projection lines up better. A keen observer will notice it's actually an SPC meso radar image . smile.gif

Himawari-8 imagery

This was my fist attempt
Attached File  ezgif_4_2f97ef6a23.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 3

I thought this one might be better for the east coast.
Attached File  ezgif_4_359cf23df8.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 2


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24

Thoughts? Am I being too nit-picky?


I like it


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MaineJay
post Nov 26 2017, 08:09 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 23 2017, 10:47 PM) *
I like it



The overlay works half decent with the Himawari-8 north Pacific loop

Attached File  ezgif_4_081d679d7f.gif ( 1.49MB ) Number of downloads: 1


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 26 2017, 03:17 PM
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ph34r.gif



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OSNW3
post Nov 27 2017, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 23 2017, 06:56 AM) *
Looking for some critique. Is this close enough? I finally found an overlay that works, unfortunately I can't manipulate it so the projection lines up better. A keen observer will notice it's actually an SPC meso radar image . smile.gif

Himawari-8 imagery

This was my fist attempt
Attached File  ezgif_4_2f97ef6a23.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 3

I thought this one might be better for the east coast.
Attached File  ezgif_4_359cf23df8.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 2


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24

Thoughts? Am I being too nit-picky?


As someone who has performed BSR/EAR overlay work in the past, I appreciate your efforts. As long as you have the Seoul to Nashville connection (EAR) and the Shemya to Columbia connection (BSR) I would suspect any map projection can be debated. smile.gif

For what it is worth here is a Twitter thread of my BSR overlay work. https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/931556788268388353


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 27 2017, 06:11 PM
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Drumroll.....





Hmmmm

Will be a slow burn around and to the east

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 27 2017, 06:32 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 27 2017, 06:27 PM
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Bsr quiet on east coast after this

NP date is around the 22nd

Bsr lag had a noticeable dip on the daily



I believe the rrwt is around 47 or 48 and that's puts 12/27 as an interesting date I believe clapper covered that

Josh showed some real unstable members on the east coast on the rrwt for the 22nd. Looked blocked as well.

Would be a lot easier if the bsr spiked the other direction on the lag but I'll still go 22nd for the great PinocchioSnow storm. 20-22nd

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 27 2017, 06:33 PM


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OSNW3
post Nov 27 2017, 08:21 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 27 2017, 05:27 PM) *
Bsr quiet on east coast after this

NP date is around the 22nd

Bsr lag had a noticeable dip on the daily



I believe the rrwt is around 47 or 48 and that's puts 12/27 as an interesting date I believe clapper covered that

Josh showed some real unstable members on the east coast on the rrwt for the 22nd. Looked blocked as well.

Would be a lot easier if the bsr spiked the other direction on the lag but I'll still go 22nd for the great PinocchioSnow storm. 20-22nd


RRWT frequencies used to generate analogs today were 49 (T1), 50 (M15D), 55 (AA1D), and 378 (BeOP). I see slightly higher frequency creeping in to the daily top 10 though. Hopefully the harmony reinforces the waveguide versus mudding the waters. smile.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 27 2017, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 27 2017, 08:21 PM) *
RRWT frequencies used to generate analogs today were 49 (T1), 50 (M15D), 55 (AA1D), and 378 (BeOP). I see slightly higher frequency creeping in to the daily top 10 though. Hopefully the harmony reinforces the waveguide versus mudding the waters. smile.gif


I was gonna use the unscientific choice of picking the top 1 analog of 49 on the heat map

Should have but referred back to clappers post which wasn't today.

smile.gif

I too see higher 40s and 50 in purple while r creeps up. Will continue to follow

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 27 2017, 09:27 PM


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JDClapper
post Nov 27 2017, 10:17 PM
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Animation of that monster BSR storm that recent occurred, which would be a 12/14-12/16 potential for the MW/EC.

For us MidAtl/NE folk, I see hints of a possible transfer as the primary rips up the OV .. which isn't far fetched considering the blocking that may be in place.

What is it that Josh says... oh yes... we shall see!

Attached File  1gif.gif ( 826.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

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JDClapper
post Nov 27 2017, 10:22 PM
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The next one Poc is peeping at for 12/18 .. looks like a bowling ball/transfer/retro/stall storm .. happens all the time. NBD laugh.gif

Attached File  1gif.gif ( 703.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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JDClapper
post Nov 27 2017, 10:29 PM
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BSR forecast VS upcoming 18z GEFS forecast for 11/28 - 12/3

Attached File  1gif.gif ( 776.6K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  2gif.gif ( 515.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by JDClapper: Nov 27 2017, 10:30 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
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