Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

45 Pages V  « < 40 41 42 43 44 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
OSNW3
post Nov 14 2017, 01:45 PM
Post #821




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,947
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2017, 09:34 PM) *
I'm kind of up in the air about DEC. Originally I thought maybe a mild DEC but cold JAN, but RRWT showing a pretty good stretch of colder weather 2-3 week of DEC.


I like the analogs the RRWT selected yesterday. They line up with the current 1-5 day wave guide. Some temporal differences, but I suppose I would expect that with high frequency eating half of the set. We shall see! smile.gif


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Nov 14 2017, 01:53 PM
Post #822




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,947
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 13 2017, 09:53 PM) *
BSR says there should be a monster ridge nearly the entire month laugh.gif tongue.gif


No kidding! That 5 day incremented 1-15 day 500mb anomaly GEFS extension of the Bering Sea Rule is ripe with ridge in the long term. The East Asia Rule has been showing potential activity short term though. We shall see! smile.gif


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 14 2017, 05:54 PM
Post #823




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,981
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 8 2017, 07:01 PM) *
Right. The placement is similar to what we saw last year. But here, I was responding to Grace who found a bunch of east-based Ninas of varying intensity. I was saying I'd like to look at the OLR of those years, and in a case such as that where you have a bunch of ENSO events of the same base but varying intensity, the position of the greatest OLR anomalies (which should be similar amongst them all if they all behaved as expected (e.g., east-based Nina -> east-based forcing)) is more important than the magnitude of OLR anomalies (which depend upon the strength of the Nina, which was not a part of the selection of ENSO events).

In other words, I still stand by my post regarding the forcing this year behaving like last year so far. The magnitude of the OLR does appear to be a bit weaker but the greatest anomalies are located around the same latitude.

Side point:
What's interesting is, although OLR has been weaker this year, MEI is stronger than last year. The value for AUG-SEP 2017 was -0.449, compared to -0.091 AUG-SEP 2016. Additionally, JUL-AUG 2017 to AUG-SEP 2017 featured a bigger drop (0.027 to -0.449) than JUL-AUG 2016 to AUG-SEP 2016 (0.186 to -0.091).

Regarding MEI... latest bimonthly numbers are in.

September/October 2017: -0.551 (up from -0.449)
September/October 2016: -0.363 (up from -0.091)

It's kind of an unfair comparison because this Nina is so much different from last year. Not only regarding the location of the Nina, but also the fact that we were almost 2 weeks past peak at this time last year. It looks like this Nina still has a solid 15-30+ days left until the Nina starts dying out.

NOAA has MEI ranks. Their definition:
QUOTE
How can one interpret these ranks? Given that there are 67-68 numbers in each column, the lowest
number (1) would denote the strongest La Nina case for that bimonthly season, while the highest
number (67 or 68) would indicate the strongest El Nino case. For instance, in December-January
(DECJAN), the strongest La Nina was recorded in 1974, while the strongest El Nino occurred in 1983.

If we use percentiles (say, the lower and upper 30%iles) to define La Nina and El Nino, respectively, MEI ranks from 1-21
denote strong to weak La Nina conditions,
while 47-67 (48-68) denote weak to strong El Nino conditions. If one uses the quintile definition for (moderate or stronger) ENSO events, MEI ranks from 1-14
would denote La Nina, while 54-67 (55-68) would denote El Nino. Finally, the comparison figures on this
website refer to strong ENSO events, such as might be defined by the top 7 (upper decile)
ranks, such as 1-7 for La Nina, and 61-67 (62-68) for El Nino.


In other words, focusing on Nina... you have a La Nina according to MEI if the rank is between 1-21. You have a moderate Nina if it's between 7-14. You have a strong Nina between 1-7.

September/October 2017 rank is 19.
August/September 2017 rank was 21.
September/October 2016 rank was 24. This was the lowest it got during the entire event.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 14 2017, 06:19 PM
Post #824




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,981
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





FWIW... day 11-15 EPS shows a pattern flip to an extent. Greenland block breaks down, Bering ridge breaks down, negative height anomalies over the Pole, and the Pacific jet pulls together.

I'm suspicious about the timing of this, as it's a big change from the regime we've been in... so we may see this change get pushed back a bit.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 06:25 PM
Post #825




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,858
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 14 2017, 08:19 PM) *
FWIW... day 11-15 EPS shows a pattern flip to an extent. Greenland block breaks down, Bering ridge breaks down, negative height anomalies over the Pole, and the Pacific jet pulls together.

I'm suspicious about the timing of this, as it's a big change from the regime we've been in... so we may see this change get pushed back a bit.


Biggest factor in that jet is the ridging in the AK region. If we continue to see the -WPO then bets are off on that. Been reading on other threads they believe MJO activity will pick up as we move into December which from the chart you posted a couple days ago of u wind at 850mb that tends to make sense and see something build around 3/4 again. May end up being a pattern reload of some sort since we are still in disconnect between start and trop PV.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 14 2017, 07:08 PM
Post #826




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,981
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 06:25 PM) *
Biggest factor in that jet is the ridging in the AK region. If we continue to see the -WPO then bets are off on that. Been reading on other threads they believe MJO activity will pick up as we move into December which from the chart you posted a couple days ago of u wind at 850mb that tends to make sense and see something build around 3/4 again. May end up being a pattern reload of some sort since we are still in disconnect between start and trop PV.

Yeah CFS is showing an MJO wave starting. Not sure how accurate the MJO delineation is. But it does make sense that there's something unusual happening because the enhanced trades between 60E and 90E propagates eastward with time, as MJO does.

What's interesting is the last MJO is visible on this map, and that one was characterized by weakened trades/reversed trades. The one coming up, if it verifies, will be characterized by enhanced trades. This would suggest to me that the reaction from this hypothetical MJO would be dissimilar, even opposite of the last one. So maybe we're heading into the "south half" of the MJO circle this time?



If so, watch out for a severe weather event if the MJO passes through phase 2.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 14 2017, 07:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 08:02 PM
Post #827




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,858
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 14 2017, 09:08 PM) *
Yeah CFS is showing an MJO wave starting. Not sure how accurate the MJO delineation is. But it does make sense that there's something unusual happening because the enhanced trades between 60E and 90E propagates eastward with time, as MJO does.

What's interesting is the last MJO is visible on this map, and that one was characterized by weakened trades/reversed trades. The one coming up, if it verifies, will be characterized by enhanced trades. This would suggest to me that the reaction from this hypothetical MJO would be dissimilar, even opposite of the last one. So maybe we're heading into the "south half" of the MJO circle this time?



If so, watch out for a severe weather event if the MJO passes through phase 2.


It seems as though it will be a convectively driven MJO wave to start rather than a MJO wave coupled with a kelvin wave, at this juncture. So basically just an enhanced area of convergence that sets off the wave. The one we saw last month seemed to be coupled with a kelvin wave, though it was weak, the low pressure/WWB that set it off allowed for such to occur. Notice the lack thereof in the easterly wind department versus possibly this go around. So from my understanding there isnt likely to be a push of warmer waters with this bought, yet because those strong westerlies at the bottom may signal that down the road. So what I would think would happen is the MJO gets going early on and then sets up shop just ahead of the possible kelvin wave?

To be honest though Im not really sure about what the dashed versus solid lines represent, anything from the site? If I had to take a guess it would prospective ideas versus reality? Or is it the upwelling versus downwelling idea. So when a wave passes an area it essentially pushes down the thermocline or downwells which gives the solid black line and the dashed is the upwelling portion of the wave that just passed giving a rise in the thermocline?

Unfortunately Oceanography never really peaked my interest so much to do with the ocean never really keeps me interested, very complex beast those oceans are.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 08:11 PM
Post #828




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 08:02 PM) *
To be honest though Im not really sure about what the dashed versus solid lines represent, anything from the site? If I had to take a guess it would prospective ideas versus reality? Or is it the upwelling versus downwelling idea. So when a wave passes an area it essentially pushes down the thermocline or downwells which gives the solid black line and the dashed is the upwelling portion of the wave that just passed giving a rise in the thermocline?



The solid lines represent the "enhanced" phase of the mode of tropical convection, dashed is the "suppressed". So a purple dashed around the dateline signifies "la Niņa" solid is "el Niņo". Solid black is the enhanced MJO, dashed is the suppressed. Blue is Kelvin waves, red is Rossby. All atmospheric. Hope that isn't confusing.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 14 2017, 08:12 PM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 08:24 PM
Post #829




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,858
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 10:11 PM) *
The solid lines represent the "enhanced" phase of the mode of tropical convection, dashed is the "suppressed". So a purple dashed around the dateline signifies "la Niņa" solid is "el Niņo". Solid black is the enhanced MJO, dashed is the suppressed. Blue is Kelvin waves, red is Rossby. All atmospheric. Hope that isn't confusing.


Ok makes sense so that forecasted dashed mjo region is the suppressed phase from our event back in October then correct? Hence why we see enhanced trades across that region then stands the idea of the suppressed phase following the MJO (eastward progression) just a month later. Is this apart of the cycle then so that when the MJO collapses as we saw at the beginning of this month the suppressed phase then takes over not necessarily in the same magnitude.

So it also stands that the suppressed phase of the MJO can often help us push into the next enhanced phase and may sometimes help enhance that enhanced phase?

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Nov 14 2017, 08:29 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 09:14 PM
Post #830




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 08:24 PM) *
Ok makes sense so that forecasted dashed mjo region is the suppressed phase from our event back in October then correct? Hence why we see enhanced trades across that region then stands the idea of the suppressed phase following the MJO (eastward progression) just a month later. Is this apart of the cycle then so that when the MJO collapses as we saw at the beginning of this month the suppressed phase then takes over not necessarily in the same magnitude.

So it also stands that the suppressed phase of the MJO can often help us push into the next enhanced phase and may sometimes help enhance that enhanced phase?


My opinion is that some of the suppressed phase is a result of the past event. I don't believe all the levels of the atmosphere have completed an orbit together. Potentially due to a la Niņa base state disrupting a "textbook" MJO orbit. How the upper and lower atmosphere sync up to create typical convection seems to be muddy waters site often.

Areas of convection around the equator *generally* weaken the trades. So, I believe it at least partially has to do with a conservation of momentum thing. Basically, the areas where the MJO isn't present "make up" for the trades weakened by convection with boosted trades, along with inflow wind fields surrounding the convection.

That's how I think it works. smile.gif


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 14 2017, 10:17 PM
Post #831




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,981
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 08:11 PM) *
The solid lines represent the "enhanced" phase of the mode of tropical convection, dashed is the "suppressed". So a purple dashed around the dateline signifies "la Niņa" solid is "el Niņo". Solid black is the enhanced MJO, dashed is the suppressed. Blue is Kelvin waves, red is Rossby. All atmospheric. Hope that isn't confusing.

I was wondering about the same thing, never bothered to ask. That makes sense... thanks!


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 15 2017, 03:27 AM
Post #832




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,858
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 11:14 PM) *
My opinion is that some of the suppressed phase is a result of the past event. I don't believe all the levels of the atmosphere have completed an orbit together. Potentially due to a la Niņa base state disrupting a "textbook" MJO orbit. How the upper and lower atmosphere sync up to create typical convection seems to be muddy waters site often.

Areas of convection around the equator *generally* weaken the trades. So, I believe it at least partially has to do with a conservation of momentum thing. Basically, the areas where the MJO isn't present "make up" for the trades weakened by convection with boosted trades, along with inflow wind fields surrounding the convection.

That's how I think it works. smile.gif


Yes it is stuff like this that just help the image click together thanks! I see what you mean with how the atmosphere at different levels responds makes perfect sense.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Nov 15 2017, 09:33 AM
Post #833




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 86
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





Since 2000-2001 season

Season 41.4 n=37.3-45.5
a n b
8 2 7
47% 12% 41%

Oct 0.4 n=.2-.6
a n b
2 1 14
12% 6% 82%

Nov 2.1 n=1.9-2.3
a n b
5 1 11
29% 6% 65%

Dec 8.3 n=7.5-9.1
a n b
7 2 8
41% 12% 47%

Jan 11.5 n=10.3-12.7
a n b
10 3 4
59% 18% 24%

Feb 10.2 n=9.2-11.2
a n b
10 2 5
59% 12% 29%

Mar 7.4 n=6.7-8.1
a n b
6 1 10
35% 6% 59%

Apr 1.5 n=1.3-1.7
a n b
2 1 14
12% 6% 82%


Since 2010-2011 season

Season 41.4 n=37.3-45.5
a n b
4 0 3
57% 0% 43%

Oct 0.4 n=.2-.6
a n b
1 0 6
14% 0% 86%

Nov 2.1 n=1.9-2.3
a n b
2 1 4
29% 14% 57%

Dec 8.3 n=7.5-9.1
a n b
3 0 4
43% 0% 57%

Jan 11.5 n=10.3-12.7
a n b
5 1 1
71% 14% 14%

Feb 10.2 n=9.2-11.2
a n b
5 1 1
71% 14% 14%

Mar 7.4 n=6.7-8.1
a n b
3 0 4
43% 0% 57%

Apr 1.5 n=1.3-1.7
a n b
1 0 6
14% 0% 86%



So, I just did a little research to see how winters have turned out snow wise in Pittsburgh since the start of the millennium and the since the start of the decade. Now of course those aren't big sample sizes, but it will at least show what's been happening recently. For normal ranges I used approximately 10% above and below normal snowfall, except for October, where I used 50% above or below.

For both categories (2000+ and 2010+) chances of below normal and above normal snow are pretty close, with only a very slight favoring of above normal. It seems the Fall and Spring months have the best chance of being below normal in snowfall while January and February have the best chance being above normal. The biggest surprise was that December's have been overall relatively close to normal, snowfall wise, with a slightly higher chance of being below average. It just seems we haven't had many good December's in a while. I feel like most of the above average December snows have come in the weeks between Christmas and New Year's.

This post has been edited by Ahoff: Nov 15 2017, 09:35 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Black05GSR
post Nov 15 2017, 11:45 AM
Post #834




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 194
Joined: 26-December 12
From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
Member No.: 27,529





A monster a brewing on GFS after Thanksgiving. Just another of many solutions for the next 2 weeks. Click to animate.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh234_300.gif ( 1.44MB ) Number of downloads: 41


This post has been edited by Black05GSR: Nov 15 2017, 11:45 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 15 2017, 12:17 PM
Post #835




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,434
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Nov 15 2017, 12:45 PM) *
A monster a brewing on GFS after Thanksgiving. Just another of many solutions for the next 2 weeks. Click to animate.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh234_300.gif ( 1.44MB ) Number of downloads: 41

Nice to see the potential of a big storm brewing, would be even nicer if the GFS had support from other models.

It does have support from the GEFS ensemble mean, but the EPS mean solution is quite different and not nearly as encouraging. Time will tell though
Attached File(s)
Attached File  12z_GEFS_h_240.png ( 119.12K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  12z_EPS_h_240.png ( 110.23K ) Number of downloads: 4
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 15 2017, 12:24 PM
Post #836




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,858
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 15 2017, 02:17 PM) *
Nice to see the potential of a big storm brewing, would be even nicer if the GFS had support from other models.

It does have support from the GEFS ensemble mean, but the EPS mean solution is quite different and not nearly as encouraging. Time will tell though


I see the potential in the EPS but it does seem rather flat would have to see how it progresses through its runs. If the NAO sets up similarly then as we see the NAO flip + usually thats when we get some big storm potential along the east.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 15 2017, 02:49 PM
Post #837




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,434
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 15 2017, 01:24 PM) *
I see the potential in the EPS but it does seem rather flat would have to see how it progresses through its runs. If the NAO sets up similarly then as we see the NAO flip + usually thats when we get some big storm potential along the east.

The EPS solution is positive tilt and has little if any cold air associated with it indicating the polar jet stream is not involved, which is necessary for a storm like the GFS is advertising.

For the time being, my money is on the EPS. We haven't seen a major trough centered on the plains yet this season, which means the GFS is like way too far east or way too far west with the trough axis.

Attached File  12z_ECM_GFS.gif ( 99.77K ) Number of downloads: 8


The run total precip off the 12z GEFS suggests a dominant trough axis off either coast (i.e. a continuation of SW flow out west, NW flow out east, and plenty of ridging in the middle).

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Nov 15 2017, 02:49 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  12z_GEFS_precip.png ( 130.64K ) Number of downloads: 7
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Southern Missour...
post Nov 15 2017, 03:37 PM
Post #838




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,157
Joined: 20-December 09
Member No.: 20,483





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 15 2017, 01:24 PM) *
I see the potential in the EPS but it does seem rather flat would have to see how it progresses through its runs. If the NAO sets up similarly then as we see the NAO flip + usually thats when we get some big storm potential along the east.


12z GFS was great in the central!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Southern Missour...
post Nov 15 2017, 03:42 PM
Post #839




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,157
Joined: 20-December 09
Member No.: 20,483





New data from IRI looks promising especially in the central and Ohio Valley:

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/930887663707656193

https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/930888368241676290

This post has been edited by Southern Missouri Snow Fan: Nov 15 2017, 03:43 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Southern Missour...
post Nov 15 2017, 03:45 PM
Post #840




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,157
Joined: 20-December 09
Member No.: 20,483





Interesting new tweet from Dr. Cohen:

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/930820970532737024
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

45 Pages V  « < 40 41 42 43 44 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
3 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
1 Members: cary67

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th November 2017 - 12:30 AM