Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early? Options

[JymGanahlRocks]

Could be a nice, crisp start to meteorological fall...

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Aug 27 2017, 08:11 PM

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[jdrenken]

Typhoon Sanvu...hmmmm...

[so_whats_happeni...]

CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha

Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks.

I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina.

[Juniorrr]

Nice trough on the Euro LR

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[ClicheVortex2014]

Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks.

I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina.

Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer.

Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 28 2017, 03:14 PM

[so_whats_happeni...]

Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer.

Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring.

I always forget to incorporate the lag effect but seems to make sense with that idea.

[Removed_Member_snowlover2_*]

Nice trough on the Euro LR

GFS similar.
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[OSNW3]

My 2016-17 RRWT experiments are complete. Final results have been integrated into one analog selection model. If you are a fan of the http://www.consonantchaos.com site and RRWT outlooks, refresh you browser cache. The layout has changed slightly. New extended outlooks and analog selection method analyses. Added composites for weeks 3 & 4 and weeks 5 & 6. October opens below average in the Great Lakes via latest model run.

[RobB]

Well now it is time for me to try and start posting more as we are coming to meteorological fall and falling average temperatures

8/30 0Z NAEFS:

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[NorEaster07]

Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st.


U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week.

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Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall.

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[grace]

Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st.


U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week.

 temps20.jpg ( 398.95K ) Number of downloads: 2




Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall.

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Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks

[NorEaster07]

Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks

Me or Rob? Lol

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

[grace]

Me or Rob? Lol

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

Whoops...you! Thanks

[ILStormwatcher]

Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.

[so_whats_happeni...]

Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.

Maybe for the middle of the country the heat may return over the already parched areas of the upper midwest region but overall I do not know if I would call the majority of the country warm the west seems to hold onto the ridging, especially inter mountain west to maybe BC area, as per what they have already. This may allow troughs to dive south more in extent as wavelengths begin to change and we get bigger dips and peaks. If that budding ridge/ high pressure off the east says anything is that it may not quite work out with a warm country.

[grace]

Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.

Disagree! Cool, then warm-up, then cool down. Looks very similar to August but perhaps not quiet as cool on departures.

If your calling for a lot of heat you must be referring to the Pac NW.

This post has been edited by grace: Sep 1 2017, 01:31 PM

[NorEaster07]

My backyard 1st Frosts: (not using just temps, actual visual of 1st frost)


Nov 1, 2010
Oct 27, 2011
Oct 13, 2012
Oct 25, 2013
Oct 20, 2014
Oct 18, 2015 (1st frost, freeze and snowflakes)
Oct 25, 2016

[Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*]

Chilly this AM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
0901 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2017

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL
THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1909, 1952,
1955, 1967, AND 2009.

[jdrenken]

Chilly this AM

Pretty impressive anomaly there!

[NorEaster07]

2-3 weeks early as far as the start of the changes go. While in general we're still full and deep green you dont have to look hard for the changes. Also, squirrels are carrying things more.



One more




Temp departures last 7 days. U.S view and Northeast view. Cool pattern started around the 23rd in the Northeast

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

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Here's the Average Temp last 7 days


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