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#21
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 9,196 Joined: 19-January 08 From: Prospect, OH (35 miles NNW of Columbus) Member No.: 12,737 ![]() |
Could be a nice, crisp start to meteorological fall...
This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Aug 27 2017, 08:11 PM
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#22
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#23
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 14,906 Joined: 23-March 08 From: Millersville, PA Member No.: 14,460 ![]() |
CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks. I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina. -------------------- |
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#24
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,514 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 ![]() |
Nice trough on the Euro LR
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#25
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 22,067 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Athens, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 ![]() |
Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks. I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina. Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer. Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring. This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 28 2017, 03:14 PM -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 2018 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17) Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°) Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18) Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18) Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17) Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) |
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#26
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 14,906 Joined: 23-March 08 From: Millersville, PA Member No.: 14,460 ![]() |
Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer. Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring. I always forget to incorporate the lag effect but seems to make sense with that idea. -------------------- |
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#27
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 18,231 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 ![]() |
-------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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#28
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,043 Joined: 29-June 11 From: Oshkosh, WI Member No.: 25,792 ![]() |
My 2016-17 RRWT experiments are complete. Final results have been integrated into one analog selection model. If you are a fan of the http://www.consonantchaos.com site and RRWT outlooks, refresh you browser cache. The layout has changed slightly. New extended outlooks and analog selection method analyses. Added composites for weeks 3 & 4 and weeks 5 & 6. October opens below average in the Great Lakes via latest model run.
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#29
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 ![]() |
Well now it is time for me to try and start posting more as we are coming to meteorological fall and falling average temperatures
![]() 8/30 0Z NAEFS:
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#30
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st. U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week. ![]() Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall. ![]() |
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,793 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 ![]() |
Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st. U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week. ![]() Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall. ![]() Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks |
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#32
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks Me or Rob? Lol https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps |
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#33
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,793 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 ![]() |
Whoops...you! Thanks ![]() |
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#34
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![]() Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 208 Joined: 14-October 08 From: Belleville, Illinois Member No.: 15,903 ![]() |
Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.
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#35
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 14,906 Joined: 23-March 08 From: Millersville, PA Member No.: 14,460 ![]() |
Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual. Maybe for the middle of the country the heat may return over the already parched areas of the upper midwest region but overall I do not know if I would call the majority of the country warm the west seems to hold onto the ridging, especially inter mountain west to maybe BC area, as per what they have already. This may allow troughs to dive south more in extent as wavelengths begin to change and we get bigger dips and peaks. If that budding ridge/ high pressure off the east says anything is that it may not quite work out with a warm country. -------------------- |
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#36
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,793 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 ![]() |
Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual. Disagree! Cool, then warm-up, then cool down. Looks very similar to August but perhaps not quiet as cool on departures. If your calling for a lot of heat you must be referring to the Pac NW. This post has been edited by grace: Sep 1 2017, 01:31 PM |
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#37
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
My backyard 1st Frosts: (not using just temps, actual visual of 1st frost)
Nov 1, 2010 Oct 27, 2011 Oct 13, 2012 Oct 25, 2013 Oct 20, 2014 Oct 18, 2015 (1st frost, freeze and snowflakes) Oct 25, 2016 |
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#38
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,449 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
Chilly this AM
QUOTE RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 0901 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2017 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1909, 1952, 1955, 1967, AND 2009. |
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#39
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#40
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
2-3 weeks early as far as the start of the changes go. While in general we're still full and deep green you dont have to look hard for the changes. Also, squirrels are carrying things more.
![]() One more ![]() Temp departures last 7 days. U.S view and Northeast view. Cool pattern started around the 23rd in the Northeast https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps ![]() Here's the Average Temp last 7 days ![]() |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 26th April 2018 - 10:35 AM |