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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2017, 01:57 PM
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Speaking of GFS12z ..

Nice activity. 4 storms in next 2 weeks.

Storm #1: Thursday 16th this week.
Clipper like staying close or north of the border puts down more snow in Ontario and Quebec while a front is dragged across the U.S, new coastal low develops off Virginia and the Parent storm in Canada transfers to it off the New England coast. Mostly rain for lower elevations


Storm #2: Saturday November 18th this weekend.
This is the front that looks to change things and the Jet dips down again with record cold air Sunday-Monday. Snow for Ontario & Quebec again and snows for northern New England with rains for everyone else. Lake Effect Snow and snow showers around after this front WV northward Sunday and Monday.


Storm #3: Thanksgiving November 23rd next week.

9 days out. Showing Gulf moisture interaction and even develops another storm off the coast. snowstorm for the interior, rains for the coasts. The 2nd coastal storm day after misses us Out to Sea.


Storm #4: Tuesday November 28th.
I can sense the wishes that it wasn't 14 days away....but it is.

Attached File  GFS3e.jpg ( 1.17MB ) Number of downloads: 8




And now....... Watch it all in motion


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RobB
post Nov 14 2017, 02:22 PM
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11/14 12Z NAEFS:


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Nov 14 2017, 04:22 PM) *
11/14 12Z NAEFS:


Has been awhile since the blues have really been able to stay in the east on these runs. Im liking the idea of them being there just not really liking the idea of them being there in november sad.gif


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idecline
post Nov 14 2017, 09:13 PM
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QPF's.... blink.gif
Attached File  d13_fill.gif ( 35.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this is a LaNina storm ? ...looks like a wonderfully strong extratropical storm...with PDO enhanced tropical connections to me...just sayin'...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 860.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and this is the WV...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 748.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looking to the East...well...the MidWest will get some nice cold mixed with vigorous moisture...and...NE...??

Attached File  5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif ( 57.2K ) Number of downloads: 1


...getting stormy...eh? plans for Thanksgiving...??? huh.gif


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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 05:15 AM
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GFS has a negative bias with AAM, but can't help but notice a -4SD forecast. I should note that the signal looks much stronger in the southern hemisphere.

Attached File  gfsgwo_1.png ( 131.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html


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RobB
post Nov 15 2017, 08:01 AM
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11/15 0Z NAEFS:


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RobB
post Nov 15 2017, 08:01 AM
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11/15 0Z EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:




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Attached File  eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_120.png ( 166.51K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_240.png ( 160.89K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360.png ( 153.77K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 15 2017, 08:16 AM
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Troughs galore wub.gif
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grace
post Nov 15 2017, 10:34 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Nov 15 2017, 07:16 AM) *
Troughs galore wub.gif



I'm not sure I've seen the BSR, RRWT, & EAR all disagree with each other.

EAR supports the trough train.

BSR supports constant mega ridge in east. (EPS headed that way)

RRWT is somewhere in between.

SOID looks to be indicating a trough around 18th, then another around 25th, then another to end month...warmups in between.

Who knows....kind of pulling for RRWT for DEC...looks pretty interesting for plains & OV
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JymGanahlRocks
post Nov 15 2017, 11:46 AM
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laugh.gif laugh.gif


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Attached File  gfs1.png ( 181.3K ) Number of downloads: 5
Attached File  gfs2.png ( 191.54K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 15 2017, 12:09 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Nov 15 2017, 12:46 PM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Low party at my house!


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RobB
post Nov 15 2017, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 15 2017, 12:09 PM) *
Low party at my house!

One of the few parties that I strongly dislike smile.gif

I so love the operational models out past day 5 biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by RobB: Nov 15 2017, 12:13 PM
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jdrenken
post Nov 15 2017, 12:23 PM
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I don't remember seeing this posted...but it applies.

QUOTE
“They are critical especially in areas where we don’t have other observations,” said Ryan Maue, meteorologist at Weather.US. “We shouldn’t get into the habit of skipping these. When you have a weather system in which the upper-level ingredients are coming together five to six days out, you don’t want to introduce even small forecast errors as those errors can grow over time — and lead to forecast degradation.”


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 15 2017, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 15 2017, 02:23 PM) *
I don't remember seeing this posted...but it applies.


Yea been reading up and hearing about this. NWS is stretched right now they are understaffed in a way that there is no extra man power to help during big events type of deal. Basically the hiring freezes did not help the situation. It is rather unfortunate and a lot of data is going to be hurt up in the alaska/Canada region with stuff like this.

Has been and will continue to hurt model performance. Going to see the same bias of the models but just scoring lower then there normal so it will be hard to distinguish GFS data with an already ehh scoring at times. The Euro stays hold on its own on ideas so that should be interesting to watch. Hopefully things can change up considering how things have happened thus far this year, im sure they wouldnt mind getting a few extras to start doing breaks for people on shift constantly.


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OSNW3
post Nov 15 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 15 2017, 10:34 AM) *
I'm not sure I've seen the BSR, RRWT, & EAR all disagree with each other.

EAR supports the trough train.

BSR supports constant mega ridge in east. (EPS headed that way)

RRWT is somewhere in between.

SOID looks to be indicating a trough around 18th, then another around 25th, then another to end month...warmups in between.

Who knows....kind of pulling for RRWT for DEC...looks pretty interesting for plains & OV


I tossed an East Asia Rule animation together this morning on Twitter, indeed a trough train. I see the Bering Sea Rule extension of the GEFS 500mb 5 day anomaly put the Northeast in negative territory for the ~25-29 day range. I noticed the SOI hasn't dealt a daily +/-10 daily significance bomb since what it projected for the 18th. As for the RRWT, well, we shall see! smile.gif

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This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 15 2017, 03:09 PM


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snowlover2
post Nov 15 2017, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Nov 15 2017, 12:46 PM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

What I wouldn't give for that to happen.


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NorEaster07
post Nov 15 2017, 05:23 PM
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So beginning of month we had June weather.... now for past week or so there's been a "bite" outside with continuous below normal temps. #WhatHappenedToFall?


Get this..... Its the coldest Nov 8-14 period since 1976 in Philly, NYC, Bridgeport and Hartford, and probably many others.

39.9 Avg temp at Bridgeport. 3rd coldest.


Temp departures last 7 days. 6-9 below normal with the Avg temp.

Attached File  temps44.jpg ( 133.96K ) Number of downloads: 1




In fact....... 2nd coldest for Hartford. Only once since 1905 was colder for the period. blink.gif

Attached File  records3.jpg ( 284.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 15 2017, 05:25 PM
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idecline
post Nov 15 2017, 07:27 PM
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...ummmm...lots of Pacific energy...could this create trough in MW?...and on to NE...???
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 821.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


...and with upper air seeming to be on a conveyor belt...check out OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 317.09K ) Number of downloads: 2


...so a 'storm'...with hurricane force wind up in AK/Aleutians est 979mb double-barreled low chasing a trough into the West Coast...progged to move south to about 45N 155W moving into morning of 11/20... doesn't look like a doozy moving across the CONUS during Thanksgiving week??? ...with a vigorous jet to propel it east...

...the West Coast is certainly going to feel some form of continuing pre-cip-itation.....


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gulfofslides
post Nov 15 2017, 07:47 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Nov 15 2017, 08:27 PM) *
...ummmm...lots of Pacific energy...could this create trough in MW?...and on to NE...???
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 821.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


...and with upper air seeming to be on a conveyor belt...check out OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 317.09K ) Number of downloads: 2


...so a 'storm'...with hurricane force wind up in AK/Aleutians est 979mb double-barreled low chasing a trough into the West Coast...progged to move south to about 45N 155W moving into morning of 11/20... doesn't look like a doozy moving across the CONUS during Thanksgiving week??? ...with a vigorous jet to propel it east...

...the West Coast is certainly going to feel some form of continuing pre-cip-itation.....

Looks like a doozy laugh.gif
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RobB
post Nov 16 2017, 09:08 AM
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11/16 0Z NAEFS:

This post has been edited by RobB: Nov 16 2017, 09:09 AM
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