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> November 12-14, 2017 MidAtl/NE "Storm", Last minute Forecasts - Observations
Undertakerson
post Nov 8 2017, 05:17 AM
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OK - I guess the other thread (created by MJ and covering the 10-11) was not intended to discuss this time periods threat - a threat which was indicated, long ago, by the BSR.

Not without confusion, I (and others) were posting in the other thread but intending this time frame.

So this one is to discuss the late weekend, early next week system (and relates to the appropriate time lag of the BSR) Much of the thoughts that Pocono Snow, me, et al, on this time frame, can be found in that threadhttp://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33353&pid=2251783&st=0&#entry2251783

WPC discussion (abridged)

QUOTE
MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER TO SHOW A MORE
PHASED SOLUTION EVOLVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN ON THE QUICKER
SIDE...THE 00Z RUN ARRIVED WITH A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH IS
EVEN WEST OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS 00Z GFS IS ALSO A BIT MORE SUBTLE
WITH THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WHICH LEADS TO A MORE MODEST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WERE STRONGER THAN THE
REMAINING SOLUTIONS AS THE 00Z/12Z CMC/UKMET CARRY A MUCH FLATTER
WAVE. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY INDUCING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. MOST MODELS ARE MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH
THE 00Z CMC HAS MOVED TOWARD A MORE EXTREME SOLUTION AS A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE ON TUESDAY OFF THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TURNING THE FOCUS TOWARD THE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM TRACK...THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE TRENDS SHOW A SLOWING
WHICH THE 00Z UKMET HAS FOLLOWED AFTER ITS FORMER SOLUTION WAS A
PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER. BY 14/0000Z...THE 00Z GFS/CMC/UKMET ARE IN
REMARKABLY CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO EASTERN
WA/OR WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS A HAIR QUICKER. THE DIFFERENCES EVEN
OUT TO DAY 7/NOVEMBER 15 ARE NOT TERRIBLY LARGE WHICH SUGGESTS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
LEAD SYSTEM...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS LOOM OFFSHORE WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. SOME RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES
WERE NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE CMC.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS DO NOT SHOW A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF SPREAD.

GIVEN A DECENT SIGNAL OF ALL RELEVANT SOLUTIONS DURING THE
PERIOD...WAS ABLE TO KEEP A GOOD CHUNK OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN
THE MIX THROUGHOUT. DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY ENSEMBLE MEANS UNTIL
MONDAY WHILE DEDICATING SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE 12Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...60 PERCENT...RELATIVE TO THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN. MAINTAINED THIS RATIO FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVEN A TAD MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
ITS STRONGER CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THE HEAVY INFLUENCE OF PACIFIC AIR MASSES SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO READINGS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY OR ABOVE IN SOME
CASES. BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST FREEZE TO MANY
LOCATIONS AS SUCH TEMPERATURES PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS NASHVILLE TN
INTO THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. WHILE NO DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN...SOME RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER NEW ENGLAND.
LOOKING TO AN AREA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
NORM...GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MILD FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT TIMES READINGS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CA...AN ACTIVE
STORM TRACK SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS COOL GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.

WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT IS IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE ARKLATEX UP TO THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING TO THE NORTH...LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW GIVEN
SOME REMNANT ARCTIC AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. THE CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS...ANY CLOSER TO
TRAJECTORY TO THE COAST WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
. THE MOST
CONSISTENT AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS. THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAINTAINS THE
FAIRLY WET PATTERN. EVENTUALLY A RETURN OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY
MID-WEEK AS THE LEAD PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD.


RUBIN-OSTER

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image



CTP starting to mention

QUOTE
Return flow of milder air arrives on Sunday ahead of another sfc
low and frontal system, and today`s solutions are colder than
previous in bringing a chance of mixed rain and snow showers
central and north and chc rain showers south Sunday into Sunday
evening, followed by another shot of cold air behind it
with a
weak lake effect regime keeping post frontal lake clouds and
flurries/light snow showers over the northwest mountains Monday
into early Tuesday.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 13 2017, 04:29 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 8 2017, 05:38 AM
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Point and Click forecast on NWS page, is now mentioning

QUOTE
Sunday
A chance of rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 8 2017, 02:55 PM
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Was taking a look at this and saw it can trace back to the storm coming into the Pac NW, specifically being shown to come in central Oregon coast tomorrow. Not quite the idea of a bowling ball as it tops the ridge out west and rides on the curtails of this weekends cold blast into the region. Should be interesting as the NAO and AO are forecast to drop during this timeframe we should see possibly a slowing down of the forward progression as things will begin to get blocky. The high pressure retreat will be interesting and development of the high pressure as the system is forming. Gonna have to wait until it comes on land to really get a nice idea.


--------------------
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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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2017/2018


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JDClapper
post Nov 8 2017, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 8 2017, 06:38 AM) *
Point and Click forecast on NWS page, is now mentioning


Nice!

Southern Lycoming-
Including the city of Williamsport
115 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, sleet and snow. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows
in the lower 30s.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 8 2017, 03:54 PM
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Depression!

(Update CTP discussion)

Did slow down the precipitation for Sunday, should be all rain
by the time the rain moves into the area during the aft hours.

Most of the guidance moves the rain out rather fast on Monday,
and temperatures not quite cold enough for all snow.

EC model on some runs showing a deeper system for early next
week, which would give us more in a way of a long duration
rain event.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 8 2017, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 8 2017, 03:54 PM) *
Depression!

(Update CTP discussion)

Did slow down the precipitation for Sunday, should be all rain
by the time the rain moves into the area during the aft hours.

Most of the guidance moves the rain out rather fast on Monday,
and temperatures not quite cold enough for all snow.

EC model on some runs showing a deeper system for early next
week, which would give us more in a way of a long duration
rain event.

I am still, very worried that most of this season (for much of the MidAtl, including the E half of PA) will be a story of cold air chasing the moisture. Not one where they can, readily, get together.

I hope to be wrong (and there's a good chance that I will be) about that - but I can't shake that notion. At least not presently.

As for the Euro, with this system, it sure does go pretty deep for this time frame, but not deep enough to draw down the real cold air (I do like the H sitting over top of ME, in this image - could be a savior if present at other times, later in the season)


Attached Image
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StormTracker
post Nov 8 2017, 04:29 PM
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Hey guys!!
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KENNYP2339
post Nov 8 2017, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 8 2017, 04:17 PM) *
I am still, very worried that most of this season (for much of the MidAtl, including the E half of PA) will be a story of cold air chasing the moisture. Not one where they can, readily, get together.

I hope to be wrong (and there's a good chance that I will be) about that - but I can't shake that notion. At least not presently.

As for the Euro, with this system, it sure does go pretty deep for this time frame, but not deep enough to draw down the real cold air (I do like the H sitting over top of ME, in this image - could be a savior if present at other times, later in the season)


Attached Image

You don't have to worry, see in winter 15-16 after the cruel 2 winter before I bought a new snowplow, well we know how that worked out for us, in winter 16-17 I bought a new tractor with a front end loader, snow bucket, rear blade...we know how that worked for us.. this year.. I haven't bought a single thing winter related, so we are good to go with atleast a normal type of winter.
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shaulov4
post Nov 8 2017, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Nov 8 2017, 05:29 PM) *
Hey guys!!

You know winter is coming when you see StormTracker enter the room haha whats up my good man
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 8 2017, 10:20 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Nov 8 2017, 04:29 PM) *
Hey guys!!


Oh no....

Don't move anyone. His sight is based on movement. If we're all still and quiet he'll leave.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Nov 8 2017, 10:21 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Nov 9 2017, 05:23 AM
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Attached Image

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EST THU NOV 09 2017

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 12 2017 - 12Z THU NOV 16 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW/MODEL EVALUATION/UNCERTAINTIES/PREFERENCES...

THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MX POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDED TO THE NORTH...A SERIES OF PACIFIC
SYSTEMS OF VARIABLE AMPLITUDES WILL CHURN EASTWARD KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS A RATHER REPEATABLE PATTERN
IS IN PLACE AS A MEAN UPPER RIDGE LOOMS LARGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WHICH FAVORS LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ADJACENT WEST COAST. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...SHOULD HAVE A
GRADUAL TENDENCY TO AMPLIFY WHILE APPROACHING THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOLUTIONS QUITE
VARIABLE WITH REGARD TO FORWARD PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH
. IN ITS
WAKE...BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL SET UP FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM
THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO RACE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. MANY MODELS SHOW THREE DISTINCT SYSTEMS TRACKING WITHIN
THIS WAVE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES...THUS KEEPING CONDITIONS QUITE WET
FROM NORTHERN CA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
ULTIMATE FATE OF THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF THE SHORTWAVE ON 12/1200Z WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET HAVE BEEN
MORE WILDLY VARIABLE. IT APPEARS THE 12Z UKMET EACH DAY HAS COME
IN THE SLOWEST IN THE PACK WHILE THE 00Z COMES IN AND ALWAYS MAKES
THE EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT. WHERE THE FORECAST REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN IS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
AMPLIFIED THE WAVE WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT COULD EVEN CUT OFF.
THE 00Z/18Z/12Z GFS RUNS ARE CONSISTENTLY QUICKER THAN THE
CONSENSUS GIVEN THE WAVE IS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. BY
14/0000Z...THE 570-DM ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS DEPICT A WIDE
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
COMPARED TO THE QUICKER TRIO OF GFS RUNS...THE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF
AS WELL AS THE LAST TWO CMC RUNS SHOW A MUCH MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE WHICH THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS CUTTING OFF AND MIGRATING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE
00Z UKMET FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION TO SOME DEGREE BUT IN A MUCH LESS
DRAMATIC FASHION.
LOOKING TO THE ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK...THIS
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM ENTERING THE PICTURE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY IS STILL WELL RESOLVED. THERE REMAIN SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT THE BIG PICTURE DOES NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF HAS ROUTINELY BEEN A HAIR QUICKER THAN
THE GFS BUT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT BEEN REMARKABLY ROBUST. THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SEEM TO BE RESTRICTED TO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA AND NORTHWARD. IN ITS
WAKE...ANOTHER POWERFUL PACIFIC CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WA COAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING ITS PATH THE DAY AFTER. ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO MERGE THE
FEATURES INTO ONE BUT THE WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES IS ON
THE SMALLER SIDE.

GIVEN THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...DISCARDED ITS SOLUTION AS AN OUTLIER.
THUS...LEANED ON THE FORMER 00Z SOLUTION WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS
RATHER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH JUST ARRIVED
.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TOOK AN EVEN SPLIT OF THE 12Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN WITH THE PREVIOUS 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GRADUALLY
INCORPORATED ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO THE FORECAST BY DAY 5/TUESDAY
WHILE STILL KEEPING AROUND 30 PERCENT OF AN OPERATIONAL COMPONENT
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE WESTERN U.S. IS
ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WHILE IT REMAINS
CLOSER TO AVERAGE OVER THE EAST GIVEN EARLIER MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
DETAIL ISSUES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MID-NOVEMBER ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE DOMINANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SYSTEMS WITH THE
FLOW DE-AMPLIFYING WHILE MOVING INLAND WILL KEEP A STRONGER
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. BY TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL
SPREAD 60S AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN NEB. REGARDING THE COOLER
SPOTS...IT SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLING DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN
INTO THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WHILE LOW/MID 20S BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DAMP
THROUGHOUT A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FROM NORTHERN CA UP TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GIVEN THE ACTIVE STORM
TRACK. THE INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD COASTAL RAIN FROM NORTHERN
CA UP TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE SNOW HITS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES INTO THE SAWTOOTH/BITTERROOTS/TETONS.
ON ITS HEELS...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS MORE OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM THE CA/OR BORDER UP TO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH SOME 2
TO 3 INCH 24-HOUR AMOUNTS ARE NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE ACROSS WESTERN
OR/WA. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMMONPLACE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHTER END GIVEN SCANT MOISTURE RETURN. EVENTUALLY SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SOLUTIONS VERIFY
OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SNOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
.


RUBIN-OSTER


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 9 2017, 05:31 AM
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Ryan Duff
post Nov 9 2017, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 8 2017, 11:20 PM) *
Oh no....

Don't move anyone. His sight is based on movement. If we're all still and quiet he'll leave.


I heard the mythical ST also can smell fear. 👀


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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geeter1
post Nov 9 2017, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Nov 9 2017, 07:30 AM) *
I heard the mythical ST also can smell fear. 👀



Dare we mention Snobal ??
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plowxpress
post Nov 9 2017, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(geeter1 @ Nov 9 2017, 10:00 AM) *
Dare we mention Snobal ??


Oh man there goes the neighborhood.......the great a powerful Snobal ohmy.gif
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JDClapper
post Nov 9 2017, 11:12 AM
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12z GFS is pretty dry.. an Apps eater?? (Too soon?) laugh.gif

Some flakes north of I-80 though.

Soon we will be within the NAM's deadly range of hr 84 and under.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 9 2017, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 9 2017, 11:12 AM) *
12z GFS is pretty dry.. an Apps eater?? (Too soon?) laugh.gif

Some flakes north of I-80 though.

Soon we will be within the NAM's deadly range of hr 84 and under.


Its the only model worth following....

I didn't mean that Prof Natorino...

seriously I'm sorry.

where are you going?

please. don't say things like that....

I'll miss you.



--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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JDClapper
post Nov 9 2017, 11:25 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 9 2017, 12:21 PM) *
Its the only model worth following....

I didn't mean that Prof Natorino...

seriously I'm sorry.

where are you going?

please. don't say things like that....

I'll miss you.

The prof's gig is up... we thought everyone took notes from it, when it faxct, it took notes from NAM.

Sad!


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 9 2017, 12:43 PM
Post #18




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 9 2017, 11:21 AM) *
Its the only model worth following....

I didn't mean that Prof Natorino...

seriously I'm sorry.

where are you going?

please. don't say things like that....

I'll miss you.



QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 9 2017, 11:25 AM) *
The prof's gig is up... we thought everyone took notes from it, when it faxct, it took notes from NAM.

Sad!


IKR

As we know, the Brits have a very poor sense of humor. The Professor may not take MDB's post in that vein. sad.gif
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Undertakerson
post Nov 9 2017, 12:44 PM
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Well - even the CMC can't make something of this.

Guess we should close this thread out (?) unsure.gif
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JDClapper
post Nov 9 2017, 12:51 PM
Post #20




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 9 2017, 01:44 PM) *
Well - even the CMC can't make something of this.

Guess we should close this thread out (?) unsure.gif


IIRC .. they didn't make much out of this past Tuesday either, even within 36 hours?

So, I'm skeptical. ohmy.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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