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> November 12-14, 2017 MidAtl/NE "Storm", Last minute Forecasts - Observations
JDClapper
post Nov 10 2017, 10:48 PM
Post #41




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0z, more juice than 18z. Baby steps smile.gif

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 05:12 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 10 2017, 10:45 PM) *
GFS also has more juice on 0z. Sampling making a difference?

Don't get me wrong.. light stuff, but at least it's not just cloudy now.

7am Monday. 0z top, 18z bottom

[attachment=332918:1png.png]
[attachment=332919:2png.png]

Yay - my little thread just might have something to talk about after all.

Looks like a bullseye for Clapper-land on the 6z NAM


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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 07:30 AM
Post #43




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 11 2017, 06:12 AM) *
Yay - my little thread just might have something to talk about after all.

Looks like a bullseye for Clapper-land on the 6z NAM


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Lock it in my man. laugh.gif

Accuweather says so.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MaineJay
post Nov 11 2017, 07:31 AM
Post #44




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GYX

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The core of the cold surface high will be to the east of our
area Sunday night, though its influence will still be felt
especially in northern and eastern parts of the area. Calm and
dry conditions may allow for another cold night, but some
increasing clouds in the south and west should keep temperatures
from falling so much there. These increasing clouds are
associated with a trough moving out of the southern Great Lakes
and into the middle Appalachians. It will reach the East Coast
on Monday when surface low pressure will begin to spin up over
the western Atlantic, but this will be too late to bring much in
the way of moisture our way. Expect mainly just some clouds for
our area, while snow chances along the coast remain 20 percent
or so.


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 10:05 AM
Post #45




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Clapper!!
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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 10:05 AM
Post #46




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The 12z NAMbino .. it won't stop.. it won't quit.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 10:09 AM
Post #47




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2017, 10:05 AM) *
The 12z NAMbino .. it won't stop.. it won't quit.

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In its wheelhouse, no less ohmy.gif

tongue.gif
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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 10:15 AM
Post #48




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 11 2017, 11:09 AM) *
In its wheelhouse, no less ohmy.gif

tongue.gif


laugh.gif I was totally going to say, "Remember people, we are with in the NAM's deadly range. 84 hours and under."



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 10:20 AM
Post #49




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12z RGEM not having any of that NAM noise. But it didn't earlier this week either.. so there's that. #NAMftw

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 10:46 AM
Post #50




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12z GFS ... nope


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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 10:58 AM
Post #51




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2017, 10:46 AM) *
12z GFS ... nope


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CMC likewise

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NorEaster07
post Nov 11 2017, 04:42 PM
Post #52




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Yeah, you go NAM! Make it 2 for 2 this month.

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
408 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Giving more credit to the NAM vs the global models with respect
to the upper trough moving across on Monday, as the latter do
not appear to be producing enough lift/precip given the strength
of the trough and its associated upper jet streaks, which show
some coupling in the GFS especially farther east. Precip could
start off as a period of light snow or mixed precip NW of NYC in
the morning, otherwise light rain expected, which should become
more showery in nature in the afternoon and evening out east as
mid levels start to dry. Kept some low chance PoP in across
eastern coastal sections for Tue via a persistent flow of
maritime air from the northeast and the approach of another
upper trough, then mainly dry conditions expected into Wed as
high pressure builds across.

A weak cold front should bring some sct showers late Wed night
into Thu morning, possibly hanging on out east into the
afternoon with the upper trough yet to pass. Heights aloft
rise quickly in the wake of this more amplified trough, with
fair/dry wx expected for Fri.

Still siding with slower ECMWF re timing of a more significant,
negatively-tilted upper trough and associated frontal system
Fri night into Sat, which could bring a quick shot of stronger
southerly winds and moderate to locally heavy showers late Fri
night into Sat. This is likely to be followed by another shot of
colder air for Sat night and into at least early next week.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 11 2017, 04:57 PM
Post #53




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2017, 12:05 PM) *
The 12z NAMbino .. it won't stop.. it won't quit.

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Might have to contend with a colder solution on this one. DP's are still relatively low over a majority of the area. System is expected to slide to our south and with cloud cover, tomorrows highs may not reach what is expected especially with a NE or East flow that should set up allowing the cooler air to still slide down the apps. Also with skies relatively clear look for some decent cooling tonight into mid 20's maybe even lower in some locals. Had a feeling what moisture there was going to be with this would allow for a wintry idea in some locations. Im thinking many areas see some freezing rain/sleet potential considering 850s are scouring out and 925s are holding decently. Some terrain if there is moisture in northern PA could be in the snow.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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NorEaster07
post Nov 11 2017, 09:30 PM
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NAM00z. Nam fail. Dried up big time with each last 2 runs. Wonder what upton will do now. Lol
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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 11:19 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 11 2017, 10:30 PM) *
NAM00z. Nam fail. Dried up big time with each last 2 runs. Wonder what upton will do now. Lol

laugh.gif Nam fail. Hahaha.

Man, and NAMbino was in its powerhouse range too... darn. I guess I cant complain too much, it is still bullseyeing me with 1-3" haha..


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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TC1
post Nov 12 2017, 04:41 AM
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The 6z NAM is about as dry as it gets for the Mid-Atlantic snow-wise. Still has some white stuff for the upper areas of New England.


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MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 05:05 AM
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GYX
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After mainly clear skies in the evening, clouds will increase
and thicken once again later tonight as a short wave trough
approaches from the northern Ohio Valley. This system will
progress eastward on Monday, triggering weak cyclongenesis off
the Mid Atlantic coastline.

A period of showers are expected with the passage of this trough
on Monday. 00Z model guidance suggests the first snowflakes of
the year are possible along the coastline Monday morning, before
temperatures gradually climb through the 30s in a raw northern
flow at the surface. While the light precipitation will change
to rain showers along and near the coastline, expect a few snow
showers over central and northern areas for much of the day due
in part to relatively low wet bulb readings.


ECMWF snow

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http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 12 2017, 05:07 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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JDClapper
post Nov 12 2017, 09:37 AM
Post #58




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QUOTE(TC1 @ Nov 12 2017, 05:41 AM) *
The 6z NAM is about as dry as it gets for the Mid-Atlantic snow-wise. Still has some white stuff for the upper areas of New England.


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12z not offering any hope either. Poor NAM.. it had a good run this season.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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rtcemc
post Nov 12 2017, 09:48 AM
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Clap, too get anything you may need my souped up radar for this one tongue.gif
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JDClapper
post Nov 12 2017, 09:49 AM
Post #60




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Nov 12 2017, 10:48 AM) *
Clap, too get anything you may need my souped up radar for this one tongue.gif


And I am counting on you to provide said souped up radar laugh.gif Don't let me down, like the NAM did. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Nov 12 2017, 09:49 AM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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