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> 2017-2018 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow Thread, Forecasts and Observations: October 15th-May 1st
OhioBlizzard
post Nov 9 2017, 03:31 AM
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Well it is that time of the year again- lake effect snow season. As with the past two seasons, we will continue to have a season long lake effect snow thread since there are only a handful of us who are affected and regularly post in regards to lake effect snowfall. As in years past, this will help cut down on clutter and creating threads for minimal amounts of posts. In the thread title I have put "GL/NE" since these are the primary locations where lake effect snow occurs, but other areas are more than welcome to post there forecasts/observations when affected. Best of luck to all my fellow 'snowbelt-ers' this season! I'll start the thread with a picture of the five beautiful lakes like usual.
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--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 9 2017, 03:42 AM
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Unfortunately I'm lacking the time to do any meaningful posting currently, but an image like the one below definitely is a nice sight now that we are getting deeper into fall. Cheers!!
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--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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NorEaster07
post Nov 9 2017, 06:49 AM
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Links to the previous threads to have for easy access.

2016-17 Lake Effect Thread

2015-16 Lake Effect Thread
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kurt990
post Nov 9 2017, 10:14 AM
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And so it begins...... Welcome back everyone
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ncinthenext3
post Nov 9 2017, 10:33 AM
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Keeping my eyes peeled. Dropped in a few times so far. ph34r.gif


--------------------
If it doesn't snow enough to shut it all down, it might as well be Summer!

NWOH/SEMI: Your Dry Slot Party Headquarters
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NorEaster07
post Nov 9 2017, 01:13 PM
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incredible discussion from NWS Buffalo. Posting it all and not attempting to boldly pick and choose

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1016 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area from west to east late this
evening. The front will produce a brief squall of heavy rain showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms, which will quickly change to snow
as much colder air rushes into the region. Scattered snow showers
and narrow bands of lake effect snow southeast of the lakes will
then continue later tonight and Friday along with unseasonably cold
temperatures. Dry weather returns Saturday, with temperatures
trending back towards average by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 15Z...regional satellite imagery and surface observations
continue to indicate a swath of cirrus-level clouds working its way
across the area this morning...along with some lower lake effect
clouds across portions of Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier.

As we progress through the late morning and afternoon hours...
the cirrus level clouds will continue their eastward progression
while gradually thinning out with time...which should allow for
partly to mostly sunny conditions from interior portions of the
Southern Tier northeastward across the Genesee Valley/Finger
Lakes and North Country. West of this...lake effect clouds will
continue to develop over and to the northeast of Lake Erie...with
the combination of a slowly rising cap/increasing background
moisture ahead of the approaching strong cold front eventually
becoming sufficient to support the development of some lake effect
rain showers across Niagara and far Northern Erie counties by mid to
late afternoon. Elsewhere conditions will remain dry...with the
aforementioned sunshine and weak warm air advection out ahead of the
cold front allowing for highs to reach into the upper 40s to lower
50s in most areas...with the warmest readings found across the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.

Our attention then turns to a powerful cold front which will sweep
across the region from WNW to ESE during the early to mid evening.
This front is being supported by a sharpening mid level trough, with
associated DPVA providing large scale ascent. The cold front will
merge with, and enhance bands of lake effect rain that develop ahead
of it over Lakes Erie and Ontario, before everything sweeps inland
and detaches from the lakes. With this in mind, the frontal squall
is likely to be strongest east and northeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario with the added boost from the captured lake effect bands.
There may be some thunder in these areas given the rapidly
increasing lake induced instability.

The frontal squall will only last for 20-30 minutes in most areas.
Precip type is likely to be all rain at lower elevations with this
first, strongest frontal squall, but may mix with wet snow across
higher terrain. Cold air surging into the region behind the front
will allow for any precip that remains behind the initial frontal
squall to quickly change to snow. With arctic fronts this strong in
November, we often see a few more bands of snow showers behind the
initial front as WINDEX instability develops with cold air over the
warm ground. Any accumulations with this initial batch of snow
showers will be light, with spotty coatings of less than an inch.
The warm ground will likely prevent a flash freeze scenario on
roads, but that is a possibility on bridges.

Overnight, another secondary arctic front will drop through the area
with a few more snow showers. Mesoscale model guidance and pattern
recognition in northwest flow suggests upstream connections will be
key in the placement and timing of the better bands of lake effect
snow later tonight. Off Lake Erie, an upstream connection will
develop off Lake Huron over the western Southern Tier, then
gradually move southwestward towards Erie PA by early Friday morning
as boundary layer flow veers. This upstream connection, combined
with upslope flow may produce spotty 1-3 inch accumulations across
the higher terrain of Chautauqua and western/northern Cattaraugus
counties. Off Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Georgian Bay
will initially focus across Wayne/Northern Cayuga counties, then
settle southward into Orleans, Monroe, and northern Ontario counties
by early Friday morning. This band may produce spotty 1-2 inch
accumulations overnight. There will be enough wind to produce some
blowing snow as well.

It should be noted that the band placements off both lakes forecast
above are about a half a county northeast of where all the mesoscale
model guidance places them. Even mesoscale models do not resolve the
full impact of the Great Lakes aggregate trough, which backs low
level flow more than model guidance and alters the placement of the
lake effect snow bands.

Temperatures will plummet behind the arctic front, with lows in the
lower 20s on the lake plains and mid to upper teens across higher
terrain by daybreak Friday. Wind chill values will be in the single
digits.

Finally, it will be quite windy along and behind the arctic front.
The front itself may produce 40+ mph wind gusts on the lake plains.
Behind the front, strong cold advection crossing the warm lakes will
produce very steep low level lapse rates, allowing stronger momentum
from aloft to mix down to the surface. The strongest winds will be
along the lake Ontario shore, where a wind advisory is in effect for
tonight with gusts to 50 mph within a few miles of the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will bring our first real taste of winter as an arctic
sourced high pressure system brings the coldest airmass of the
season across the eastern Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures are
forecast to dip to between -16C and -19C. This will translate to
daytime high temperatures that will rival the some of the coldest
high temperatures on record for the first 10 days of November. The
coldest highs in the first 10 days of November for Buffalo,
Rochester, and Watertown, respectively, are 25 on 11/05/1951, 27 on
11/04/1879, 29 on 11/08/2976. The forecast high for all three of
these sites on Friday is 26/25/26F respectively. A lingering eastern
Great Lakes pressure gradient between the building high and the
departing and deepening low over Quebec will continue blustery
northwest winds. These winds combined with the cold temperatures
will produce a noticeable wind chill, making it feel like mid winter
with wind chills in the teens and single digits, even with some
sunshine peeking around Lake Effect clouds through the middle of the
afternoon.

Lake Effect Snows will also linger Friday in the northwest flow
across the Great Lakes. A band across the south shore of Lake
Ontario with a Georgian Bay connection and a band across the western
Southern Tier with a Lake Huron connection will weaken through the
day as the incoming high pressure squashed lake induced equilibrium
heights and removes synoptic moisture. An additional few tenths up to
an inch of snow is possible beneath the weakening bands Friday.

The center of the arctic high will shift over western and central NY
through Friday night. The combination of subsidence and very dry air
will completely end lake snows while also bringing clearing skies
and light/variable winds. This will result in a bitterly cold night
by early November standards. Many inland locations in the Southern
Tier and east of Lake Ontario are forecast to dip to the low teens
and even some single digits, while the lake plains fall into the
mid/upper teens.

Saturday and Saturday night will also feature dry weather as the
commanding arctic surface high slowly centers over New England. As
the center of the high shifts away from western and central NY so
too will the core of the coldest temperatures aloft. A developing
southwest flow in the wake of the high will recover 850mb temps to
the low/mid single digits below 0C. This will help guarantee higher
daytime temps Saturday with low to mid 30s forecast after Friday`s
winter preview. Mainly sunny skies Saturday will see some increase
in cloud cover from the west Saturday night where temps will still
be able to slip into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A couple of weak systems showing up in the medium range guidance may
bring some rain/snow showers during this period. The first looks to
begin influencing our forecast area Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night and Monday morning where model consensus tracks a weak low to
our south. This low will bring the opportunity for rain showers
Sunday mixing with or changing to snow Sunday night as temps in the
40s cool back to near or below freezing. Precip then has a chance of
turning back into rain showers Monday when temperatures rebound
above freezing. Have featured likely POPs along the NY/PA border
Sunday night where the best opportunity of precipitation associated
with the low is possible.

The weak low then looks to shift off the coast Monday night where it
could rapidly deepen into a storm off Cape Cod. As this occurs,
another Canadian sourced area of high pressure looks to drift over
our region through Tuesday night providing for dry weather. Temps
aloft are not expected to be nearly as cold as the high coming this
Friday so surface temperatures are forecast to only run about 5
degrees below normal with highs in the mid 40s and lows within a few
degrees either side of freezing.

Moving toward midweek, GFS/EC models then shift a cold front into
western and north-central NY for Wednesday. This has led to a
slight/low chance for some rain showers until more specific timing
becomes more clear. Temps ahead of the front are expected to reach
into the mid to upper 40s supporting the liquid forecast for rain
showers.
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ValpoSnow
post Nov 9 2017, 08:25 PM
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Should see my first lake effect tomorrow. Nothing major, unfortunately, but will be nice to see some flakes in the air.
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ValpoSnow
post Nov 9 2017, 08:53 PM
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Latest HRRR for Lake Michigan LES. Chicago up to 1.7" this run.


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bunnyohare1
post Nov 9 2017, 09:09 PM
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A snow dusting tonight and tomorrow by South Bend/Mishawaka. Looking forward to lake effect season. Hoping for more snow than we got last year.
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ValpoSnow
post Nov 9 2017, 10:12 PM
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LOT just went with a SWS


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NorEaster07
post Nov 10 2017, 06:01 AM
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Nov 10, 2017: 2:45-6:45amEST loop

Snow squalls and Lake Effect with the Arctic front.

Ithaca was reporting heavy snow for a little bit.

Chicago Midway seeing some light snow now.

Pittsburgh as well


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ValpoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:59 AM
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Dusting on the neighbor's roof this morning.

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Very light snow/flurries beginning to pick up now. Some better returns over the lake heading this way. Hope they are able to penetrate inland a few miles at least. Certainly nice to see flakes flying, regardless. Bottomed out at 21 here.

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ValpoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 10:06 AM
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Coming down at a good clip right now, though flake size is very small and honestly it's more like graupel than flakes. Still nice coating at the moment on everything, including pavement, which is impressive since last night was the first time we got below freezing since March!
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RobB
post Nov 10 2017, 10:43 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Nov 10 2017, 11:06 AM) *
Coming down at a good clip right now, though flake size is very small and honestly it's more like graupel than flakes. Still nice coating at the moment on everything, including pavement, which is impressive since last night was the first time we got below freezing since March!



Enjoy!
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ValpoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 03:35 PM
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Just occasional flurries right now with a temp of 29. We only managed .25" or so here, closer to the lake (downtown in particular) seems to have picked up a bit more (as expected). I'm content with a wintry day on 11/10, especially if we manage to stay below freezing, which I think we will.


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cary67
post Nov 10 2017, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Nov 10 2017, 02:35 PM) *
Just occasional flurries right now with a temp of 29. We only managed .25" or so here, closer to the lake (downtown in particular) seems to have picked up a bit more (as expected). I'm content with a wintry day on 11/10, especially if we manage to stay below freezing, which I think we will.

I guess this puts you out in the lead snow total wise. biggrin.gif
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ValpoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:09 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Nov 10 2017, 06:05 PM) *
I guess this puts you out in the lead snow total wise. biggrin.gif


That won't last long, I'm sure!
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bunnyohare1
post Nov 10 2017, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Nov 10 2017, 03:35 PM) *
Just occasional flurries right now with a temp of 29. We only managed .25" or so here, closer to the lake (downtown in particular) seems to have picked up a bit more (as expected). I'm content with a wintry day on 11/10, especially if we manage to stay below freezing, which I think we will.


You can certainly tell you're in Chicago. I was born there many years ago. Grandparents lived on Rockwell St. We lived on 46th Place off of Western Ave. Do they still call sidewalks on the side of the house "gangways"? LOL
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 11 2017, 10:14 AM
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Tis the season!

Bring it on biggrin.gif
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KD8MKI
post Nov 11 2017, 10:38 PM
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This is my first winter in the show belt. Moved up here to Erie from CMH in June. Can't wait!


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

First Winter in Erie, PA


First Flakes: 10/31/17
First Dusting: 11/9/17
First 1": 11/19/17
First >1": ??

Greatest Storm Total to date: ??
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