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> 2017-2018 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow Thread, Forecasts and Observations: October 15th-May 1st
Astronomer
post Nov 12 2017, 11:08 AM
Post #21




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Next weekend (November 18-19) holds the potential for a significant lake-effect outbreak. I've been eyeing this for a couple of days now. The models are looking good and coming together, even this far out. Brett Anderson tweeted this morning:


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...which reminds me that I forgot to put gas stabilizer in my snowblower last Spring!
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Astronomer
post Nov 12 2017, 02:18 PM
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One more, via Twitter:

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bradjl2009
post Nov 12 2017, 08:27 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Nov 12 2017, 11:08 AM) *
Next weekend (November 18-19) holds the potential for a significant lake-effect outbreak. I've been eyeing this for a couple of days now. The models are looking good and coming together, even this far out. Brett Anderson tweeted this morning:


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...which reminds me that I forgot to put gas stabilizer in my snowblower last Spring!

I've been noticing this as well. It looks like many places in the Interior Northeast will see their first snowfall next weekend. Some places could do very well also.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 13 2017, 08:24 AM
Post #24




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And it starts

QUOTE
Much colder air will move into the region by Sunday. This may set the
stage for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario


QUOTE
Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off




--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 13 2017, 08:31 AM
Post #25




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Could be a nice one for the tug..


Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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kurt990
post Nov 13 2017, 12:35 PM
Post #26




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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Nov 13 2017, 08:31 AM) *
Could be a nice one for the tug..


Attached Image



Holding out hope. This really has the feeling of 3 years ago. Warmer Fall, turned cold in November and never looked back. Had early lake effect and a nice cold and snowy winter.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 13 2017, 08:32 PM
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Let’s see how long this last, right In Fulton’s wheelhouse..

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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bradjl2009
post Nov 13 2017, 08:44 PM
Post #28




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Member No.: 16,265





QUOTE(kurt990 @ Nov 13 2017, 12:35 PM) *
Holding out hope. This really has the feeling of 3 years ago. Warmer Fall, turned cold in November and never looked back. Had early lake effect and a nice cold and snowy winter.

Hopefully this December doesn't repeat like 2014 as well though, next to no snow IMBY for that month. I have been getting the vibe though that this is like 3 or 4 years ago with the average summer to warm start to fall to cool from late October onward.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Nov 13 2017, 08:46 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 14 2017, 07:48 AM
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0z gfs continues with the WNW theme


Attached Image


Latest NWS forecast


Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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kurt990
post Nov 14 2017, 08:44 AM
Post #30




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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Nov 14 2017, 07:48 AM) *
0z gfs continues with the WNW theme


Attached Image


Latest NWS forecast


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Yea depending how wide the band is that can usually work for Forestport as well. Love how they just put snow showers this far out. Snowshowers.... foot of lake effect.. Same difference hahaha
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bradjl2009
post Nov 15 2017, 09:44 PM
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I don't live in the traditional snow belt, but we have certainly gotten minor to even moderate snowfalls from lake effect snow, but the model trends for this have been very disappointing in the last day in my area. Starting to look like I'd be lucky to see at coating at this rate.
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kurt990
post Nov 17 2017, 01:41 PM
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No looking nearly as impressive as before. Hopefully someone will get surprised though. But hey, were just getting started
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 17 2017, 11:09 PM
Post #33




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Some nice streamers on the 3k nam

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 09:25 AM
Post #34




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Is Syracuse Ready?

Attached Image


NAM3km now till Monday 1pm

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Yesterday, 10:05 AM
Post #35




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Haha if only, yes that’s the 3k nam showing near 1 1/2’ in Fulton lol Need to see what other SR models start to show as we move closer...

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Yesterday, 12:15 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Yesterday, 11:35 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 17,266
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From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Nws calling for 8.6” as of right now..

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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SyracuseStorm
post Yesterday, 04:19 PM
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Winter Storm Watches have been posted for Syracuse area...not sure why Lake Effect watches not posted

"...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern
Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida
Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and
early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s
and lower 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch for heavy lake effect snow means there is a
potential for a large amount of snow in only a few hours.
Visibilities and depth of snow can vary greatly, impacting travel
significantly. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts."

This post has been edited by SyracuseStorm: Yesterday, 04:21 PM


--------------------

Red Dragon Football
Weather nut for life!!!
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:31 PM
Post #38




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QUOTE(SyracuseStorm @ Nov 18 2017, 04:19 PM) *
Winter Storm Watches have been posted for Syracuse area...not sure why Lake Effect watches not posted


You missed the big memo. Gonna take me a while to get used to the changes.

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 16 2017, 04:11 PM) *
NWS Makes big changes to Winter Weather products!

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDDforWint...eformatting.pdf


  • The Freezing Rain Advisory and Lake Effect Snow Advisory products will no longer be issued
  • The “Blizzard Watch” and “Lake Effect Snow Watch” products will no longer be issued
  • The “Lake Effect Snow Warning” product will no longer be issued at these sites.(Duluth (DLH), Marquette (MQT), Green Bay (GRB), Milwaukee (MKX), Chicago (LOT), Northern Indiana (IWX), Grand Rapids (GRR), Gaylord (APX) and Detroit (DTX).


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Yesterday, 08:47 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Fulton NY
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Crazy band on the 4k nam , sits in place all night..

Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2” (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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MD Blue Ridge
post Yesterday, 08:50 PM
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Well now that I have a place out on top of the Allegheny front where I am a ton now, I guess I'll have to participate more in this thread. For tomorrow I think 2-4" is a good bet.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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