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> November 22 - 23 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm Potential, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
bigben89
post Nov 10 2017, 07:17 AM
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This may be my one and only thread, but I'm going to give it a shot. A lot of talk about the potential during this time period. Hopefully a lot of the smarter guys in here can add the analytical details.


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This post has been edited by bigben89: Nov 15 2017, 01:27 PM


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January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches IMBY
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches IMBY
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 07:47 AM
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06z





This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 10 2017, 07:47 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 07:51 AM
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Little Japanese snowmen starting to appear from their slumber



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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 07:54 AM
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Wonder why no thread for the 19th

Looks like a NNE miller b

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 10 2017, 07:56 AM


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MaineJay
post Nov 10 2017, 07:54 AM
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The obvious problem is, it's 12 days away.

8-14 day analogs

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...b.php?sector=16

EPS

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http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php


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Undertakerson
post Nov 10 2017, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(bigben89 @ Nov 10 2017, 07:17 AM) *
This may be my one and only thread, but I'm going to give it a shot. A lot of talk about the potential during this time period. Hopefully a lot of the smarter guys in here can add the analytical details.


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Major props (old phrase - I know, I know) for taking the leap BB. smile.gif I'm sure you'll be courteous enough to keep the thread updated (edit the lead times, etc.) and we look forward to the additions you will, likely, make.

Not much to say, regarding details, at this point - 10 days out is no time to go there to any serious level. So, I'll just post the MREFs (further out in time requires a look from "further out in space" (as it were).

6z MREF set http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html
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H5 view - the teleconnected block portrayed (NW Atl ridge connected to PNA ridge) does look as if it could be a very "promising" outcome

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GFS (00z) based blocking - this is critical and must be watched as we move forward. For now, looks good with a growing block in the NW Atl region (signal of -NAO)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf3.nh.shtml

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Hopefully, some of the smarter guys in here can add some detail unsure.gif laugh.gif

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Undertakerson
post Nov 10 2017, 08:02 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 10 2017, 07:54 AM) *
The obvious problem is, it's 12 days away.

8-14 day analogs

Attached Image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...b.php?sector=16

EPS

Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php

Is it a bad thing that, every time you post the analog years, I look at the list and realize that I've been alive for most, if not all, of them? unsure.gif
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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2017, 12:31 PM
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https://twitter.com/KOPNFMRADIOWX/status/92...1173584897?s=17


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tool483
post Nov 10 2017, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 10 2017, 12:31 PM) *



oh yea, that spread is massive!


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JDClapper
post Nov 10 2017, 04:21 PM
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There's some cold air ahead of the system, but not seeing a High (on the 12z GFS) to make the cold put up a fight .. would be nice if we could muster up some CAD, or a more southerly track.

Fortunately, at 240+ hrs.. anything is still possible.

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34シ"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7シ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17ス"


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JDClapper
post Nov 10 2017, 04:25 PM
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I'm not seeing anything from the BSR around this time frame that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside .. or am I missing something subtle?

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34シ"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7シ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17ス"


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:22 PM
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18z still has a heck of s storm hires would prolly have this in the 970s



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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 05:29 AM
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blink.gif blink.gif

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That's more blocking than I have seen, in many many seasons.

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PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 07:45 PM
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Is this the 23/24th storm ?

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 07:46 PM


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shaulov4
post Nov 12 2017, 07:51 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 07:45 PM) *


Is this the 23/24th storm ?


This thread should be considered that, this certainly has the potential to be the system to bring the first snows for many. If the GFS is too high the Drunk Uncle is too low wink.gif Certainly a phasing issue here.

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SnowMan11
post Nov 12 2017, 08:01 PM
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18z GEFS has the 2 inch line into NYC throughout the run with a lot of snow for inland areas and near the lakes region

I think we will all see some snow with this upcoming pattern


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 08:28 PM
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East Asia ha this is a close but non phased solution right now



Interesting enough that the h5 looks like this

i do ponder whether this will be the little Japanese snowmen first stack of the year. The system before is the warning attack then this is the main nuke

Might soon need the ljs index out

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 08:29 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 09:23 PM
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The Bering sea rule for the 23rd shows an eerily close non phased solution that we see in east Asia for this time frame.

Have to be careful here because these nonphased organic solutions are NOT a 1:1 correlation

Ear and bsr can show stream separations but these waves modulate constantly. So as long as there is something like this showing up, pay attention.




Correlation is at its lowest right now so must be extra vigilant

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 09:30 PM


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shaulov4
post Nov 12 2017, 11:37 PM
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Different Solution but something still there, comes down as a clipper and shears and transfers late ....OT this sure will be a cold November....




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bigben89
post Nov 13 2017, 07:30 AM
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Pft, GONE! Just some LES.
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January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches IMBY
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches IMBY
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