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> November 22 - 23 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm Potential, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:05 PM
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QUOTE(Harleigh Hal @ Nov 13 2017, 11:03 PM) *
biggrin.gif NAMBO is KING this year!! ❄️😎

Imagine we get one of those laugh.gif they are usually the best
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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:26 PM
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You can see here that both pieces are already flirting with each other.

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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:30 PM
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In this "case" its all in the matter of timing. Of course looking at the temps would be useless this far out.



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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:34 PM
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This has a long way to go.
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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:37 PM
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Hmm will the coastal take over?
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Harleigh Hal
post Nov 13 2017, 11:42 PM
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All this talk of zonal flow could be negated by a Miller B system out of this. Hmmmm.....


--------------------
Snowfall Totals - 2014 - 2018

2014-15 - 61.50 Inches through 3-31-15

2015-16 - 22 & 1/4 Inches plus a skosh thru April 3rd.

2016-17 - 56.25 Inches Through March 15th, 2017

2017-18 - 1.5 Inches Through November 13th, 2017

Banned from commenting against DT since 2012, but now there's Twitter, so I can Trump him!
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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:43 PM
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Transfers late... oh boy I have a feeling I won't be sleeping for awhile. This might be the one that gets things started.
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shaulov4
post Nov 13 2017, 11:45 PM
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QUOTE(Harleigh Hal @ Nov 13 2017, 11:42 PM) *
All this talk of zonal flow could be negated by a Miller B system out of this. Hmmmm.....

Certainly interesting indeed.
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Harleigh Hal
post Nov 13 2017, 11:47 PM
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It's certainly got my attention! Here's to big ❄️ and 🦃!


--------------------
Snowfall Totals - 2014 - 2018

2014-15 - 61.50 Inches through 3-31-15

2015-16 - 22 & 1/4 Inches plus a skosh thru April 3rd.

2016-17 - 56.25 Inches Through March 15th, 2017

2017-18 - 1.5 Inches Through November 13th, 2017

Banned from commenting against DT since 2012, but now there's Twitter, so I can Trump him!
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stxprowl
post Nov 14 2017, 02:19 AM
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biggrin.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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This post has been edited by stxprowl: Nov 14 2017, 02:21 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 05:35 AM
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6z GFS should gin up even more chatter for the Thanksgiving travel implications in the East.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 06:01 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 05:35 AM) *
6z GFS should gin up even more chatter for the Thanksgiving travel implications in the East.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0



By moving the dates again... not sure that it would even be the same set up as the original post.

EPS suggests to me that a northern stream driven storm is possible.

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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=


Feels like we are kicking the can down the road with this one. 8+ day deterministic runs are shaky ground.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 14 2017, 06:12 AM


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 06:41 AM
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I'm sorry if I sound like a jerk, I just would like to see a more focused approach. Either a timeframe, using BSR or east Asia rule (typhoon rule), or a piece of energy for the rest of us to key on.

This isn't a dig at bigben, nor an attempt to discourage others from starting threads. In fact, I would enjoy more posters to open threads. So long as there is a way to "track" whatever the original poster intended, instead of searching for some kind of cryptometeorlogical sasquatch storm.


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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bigben89
post Nov 14 2017, 07:23 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 06:41 AM) *
I'm sorry if I sound like a jerk, I just would like to see a more focused approach. Either a timeframe, using BSR or east Asia rule (typhoon rule), or a piece of energy for the rest of us to key on.

This isn't a dig at bigben, nor an attempt to discourage others from starting threads. In fact, I would enjoy more posters to open threads. So long as there is a way to "track" whatever the original poster intended, instead of searching for some kind of cryptometeorlogical sasquatch storm.


I'm going to leave the dates on the topic alone. No more changes. If y'all want another thread to be opened, so be it.


--------------------
Baba booey

January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches IMBY
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches IMBY
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 07:34 AM
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QUOTE(bigben89 @ Nov 14 2017, 07:23 AM) *
I'm going to leave the dates on the topic alone. No more changes. If y'all want another thread to be opened, so be it.



Ben,

I'm just trying to offer constructive criticism. When the dates jump around in the 8+ day range, it can become confusing. I'm sorry if there are hard feelings. If we can't have a conversation about these things, I'm not sure what to say. You started the thread and then asked for help, but when I politely (perhaps I'm not as polite as I think) asked for a focus, you seem to have become upset. I'm sorry if my post was mean, it was not intended to be so. And as I stated, didn't want to discourage you or anyone else.

Apologies.


An excerpt from the extended disco.

QUOTE
FROM SUN ONWARD, RATHER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AN ARCTIC SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING ACROSS SIBERIA IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE, APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THESE SHORTWAVES QUICKLY
DEAMPLIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW, THE 12Z
ECMWF/CMC SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MON-TUE. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AS OF LATE ON ENERGY ORIGINATING IN THE
ARCTIC (ESPECIALLY WHEN MATCHED BY THE CMC). FURTHER,
TELECONNECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTERS WITHIN THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC REX BLOCK DO NOT SUPPORT A
STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE (WHICH SHOULD IN THEORY ALLOW FOR ENERGY
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE EC). WHILE THE EC ENSEMBLE
SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD, A NOTABLE TREND WAS OBSERVED IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC EC. THUS, THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED STRONGLY IN THIS DIRECTION FOR DAYS 6-7 (MON-TUE), WITH
THE 12Z ECENS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF COMPRISING A MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST, AND LESSER WEIGHTING PLACE ON THE NAEFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd




--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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PoconoSnow
post Nov 14 2017, 08:50 AM
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The Hudson Vortex is created by the first long wave which closes off and tries to transfer off NNE (covered in previous thread )



We then see a piece of energy round that vortex but for now it has no link up or 50/50 and our storm appears to stay nothernnstream dominant. Now the positioning of that vortex coulddd help the nothern stream swing better. But at this point that's all I'm really hoping for. A phaseless mothern stream snow

It's a shame if we can't hook up here. The high lat Blocking looks truly too good to be true for this timeframe.





Hopefully a sign of the harbinger of blocking past

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 14 2017, 09:16 AM


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“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 14 2017, 09:15 AM
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There mayyyyyy be a bit of room for that Hudson vortex to shift west some....

Look at the deviation on the Hudson ULL



That would allow the nothern stream to swing through better

Not many members showing the western ULL though

It's so fleeting in the mean





This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 14 2017, 09:21 AM


--------------------
“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 14 2017, 09:22 AM
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As of right now this doesn't look too good to me for snow lovers

Hope I'm wrong


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“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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shaulov4
post Nov 14 2017, 09:43 AM
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OT but ocean effect snow for NJ? We will see ...could be interesting...
anyway backend thump scenario on 6z. This has plenty of time to turn. I like this one for the first snows of the season.obviously not a big one but I'm not counting that out.We have seen less favorable conditions produce more so less keep track biggrin.gif
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clindner00
post Nov 14 2017, 11:01 AM
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So on the 12z gfs at 102, is this our energy hitting the pacific northwest?
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