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> November 22 - 23 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm Potential, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
clindner00
post Nov 14 2017, 12:04 PM
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Well after tracing it back on the run, I guess the energy doesn’t hit the Pacific NW until hour 150. We have quite a while to go until we get decent sampling. I guess we’re looking around Monday for that.
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clindner00
post Nov 14 2017, 12:08 PM
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The 12z cmc on the other hand seems to be northern stream dominant and the bowling ball effect.

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JDClapper
post Nov 14 2017, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Nov 14 2017, 01:08 PM) *
The 12z cmc on the other hand seems to be northern stream dominant and the bowling ball effect.

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Heights out west look decent for us on CMC .. GFS a bit too far east.



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 12:45 PM
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If the east can't get a winter storm out of this blocking pattern (downstream) - then, I don't know what will do it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf2.nh.shtml
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snowcrazed71
post Nov 14 2017, 01:08 PM
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.... but, isn't it kind of early to get a big snowstorm? I know we've seen it on Thanksgiving in the past, but it usually is a decade or so, at least here in Connecticut. Let's not get too hasty on saying that we're not going to get any storms with this pattern, winter is just beginning, let's hope that this pattern continues through the winter. If it does then we will get some big storms. Well I'm banking on it LOL
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 12:45 PM) *
If the east can't get a winter storm out of this blocking pattern (downstream) - then, I don't know what will do it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf2.nh.shtml

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JDClapper
post Nov 14 2017, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(snowcrazed71 @ Nov 14 2017, 02:08 PM) *
.... but, isn't it kind of early to get a big snowstorm? I know we've seen it on Thanksgiving in the past, but it usually is a decade or so, at least here in Connecticut. Let's not get too hasty on saying that we're not going to get any storms with this pattern, winter is just beginning, let's hope that this pattern continues through the winter. If it does then we will get some big storms. Well I'm banking on it LOL


Giant crippling blizzards happen all the time in November .... in my head. laugh.gif

IMO, any November snow is "bonus" to the seasonal totals here .. at least this threat has a little bit of promise and bears watching smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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shaulov4
post Nov 14 2017, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 12:45 PM) *
If the east can't get a winter storm out of this blocking pattern (downstream) - then, I don't know what will do it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf2.nh.shtml


It will come, pattern is coming together, if not pre thanksgiving, there signals post thanksgiving (26-30).
Although I am an optimist so we shall see.
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telejunkie
post Nov 14 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 12:45 PM) *
If the east can't get a winter storm out of this blocking pattern (downstream) - then, I don't know what will do it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf2.nh.shtml

Straining my brain...but think it was STLweather who mentioned a while back in the LR winter thread that they thought this winter would feature mean troughing for the EC, but though positioning would be too far East for a big snow winter, more NW flow dominant. Maybe into something?

I mean I wouldn’t complain too much...but after last year’s roller coaster ride with big snows followed by big warm-ups...a steady snowpack would be nice imho


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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shaulov4
post Nov 14 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Nov 14 2017, 01:21 PM) *
Straining my brain...but think it was STLweather who mentioned a while back in the LR winter thread that they thought this winter would feature mean troughing for the EC, but though positioning would be too far East for a big snow winter, more NW flow dominant. Maybe into something?

I mean I wouldn’t complain too much...but after last year’s roller coaster ride with big snows followed by big warm-ups...a steady snowpack would be nice imho

ahh yes I also remember that, however in this type of set up you can have those albertas doing all the work.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(snowcrazed71 @ Nov 14 2017, 01:08 PM) *
.... but, isn't it kind of early to get a big snowstorm? I know we've seen it on Thanksgiving in the past, but it usually is a decade or so, at least here in Connecticut. Let's not get too hasty on saying that we're not going to get any storms with this pattern, winter is just beginning, let's hope that this pattern continues through the winter. If it does then we will get some big storms. Well I'm banking on it LOL



QUOTE(telejunkie @ Nov 14 2017, 01:21 PM) *
Straining my brain...but think it was STLweather who mentioned a while back in the LR winter thread that they thought this winter would feature mean troughing for the EC, but though positioning would be too far East for a big snow winter, more NW flow dominant. Maybe into something?

I mean I wouldn’t complain too much...but after last year’s roller coaster ride with big snows followed by big warm-ups...a steady snowpack would be nice imho

These two posts go together.

I think that Crazed may have misinterpreted my post. I'm not being hasty and saying it can't happen - I'm saying that, given the blocking signal, it is more likely to happen than not, so if it (blocking) doesn't manifest into a winter storm at some point, then how in the world will it happen without blocking? Given the dominance of the N jet stream, in a Nina winter, without blocking - only NE stands half a chance (in the east).
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monsoonevans
post Nov 14 2017, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 14 2017, 01:12 PM) *
It will come, pattern is coming together, if not pre thanksgiving, there signals post thanksgiving (26-30).
Although I am an optimist so we shall see.


Your not kidding. The 12Z gfs is crazy for 28-29!!!
The pattern actually in a way supports this.....
If this is still showing sunday, look out for some heavy early season forum craziness smile.gif

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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 14 2017, 01:30 PM) *
ahh yes I also remember that, however in this type of set up you can have those albertas doing all the work.

And should the Alberta's "do all the work" that leaves the MidAtl region in a precarious position of having to ward off any warm air advection influences. The clippers would have to dive into VA for the MidAtl to see a decent snow.

But I digress, we're here to talk about this storm. So here's the MREF set from 12z. Not exactly a strong storm signal. And with the Euro saying "no" (essentially) well....


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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(monsoonevans @ Nov 14 2017, 03:54 PM) *
Your not kidding. The 12Z gfs is crazy for 28-29!!!
The pattern actually in a way supports this.....
If this is still showing sunday, look out for some heavy early season forum craziness smile.gif

Attached Image

Geez - a Monsoon Evans sighting? So early in the season? It's been a long while since you've joined in this early, my friend. Here's to hopin (for those that hope)
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monsoonevans
post Nov 14 2017, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 03:56 PM) *
Geez - a Monsoon Evans sighting? So early in the season? It's been a long while since you've joined in this early, my friend. Here's to hopin (for those that hope)


Yes too early for sure but just getting this weird feeling this month😜


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 02:45 PM) *
If the east can't get a winter storm out of this blocking pattern (downstream) - then, I don't know what will do it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...h/mrf2.nh.shtml


Bold! lol

What I see is some nice wave activity that will start to throw energy poleward maybe getting into the Strat starting the end of the month with those looks.

Oh sorry back to the issue at hand lol well I would like to see things setup with the block first before I toss ideas. Should develop off the system that just went through yesterday as it throws higher heights north into greenland and the system coming through the end of this week will ultimately get things going and buckle the flow. Time period is interesting looks like a low ejects from la junta region and slides east. Finding key s/w pieces a week in advance is gonna be a hard one to overcome, but the pattern seems sound for a rain to snow event for the MA/95 region. The mountains would stay snow not seeing a big storm for this period maybe right around thanksgiving as some posted will be the big storm idea.

The theme thus far this year has been cold high pressure systems sliding down from western Canada to the upper midwest 1040-1050mb highs this time of year coming down is some pretty cold air! Mean troughing in AK/bering straight region seems to want to stay neutral even negative so holding onto the position ridging will extend up from baja california with those anomalous warm waters but not become to overly grand with constant barraging of storms into the PAC NW and western Canada but enough to allow a nice high pressure/ridge pattern to slide down the eastern slopes of the rockies. Typical La nina like set up with a twist the ridging, while normally in the SE, has been displaced further north and has managed a fairly average time thus far for november temps, even slightly below in some areas.


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Black05GSR
post Nov 14 2017, 05:24 PM
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18z GFS better have its flame suit on ph34r.gif


--------------------
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PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 05:45 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Nov 14 2017, 05:24 PM) *
18z GFS better have its flame suit on ph34r.gif

In no way a shocker - given the ensembles I posted earlier.
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Undertakerson
post Nov 15 2017, 05:12 AM
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So, no posts since my last? The overnight modeling must have really been unimpressive. laugh.gif

GFS exhibiting quite a bit of "jumpiness" with the features that could cause this potential.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 15 2017, 05:15 AM
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Must be one of those "on again, off again" romances

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 15 2017, 05:19 AM
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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 05:27 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 15 2017, 05:12 AM) *
So, no posts since my last? The overnight modeling must have really been unimpressive. laugh.gif

GFS exhibiting quite a bit of "jumpiness" with the features that could cause this potential.



It's not only the GFS. ECMWF really struggling with the southern stream feature as well. It has slowed the northern energy over the last few cycles. Since we are still D6+, I can't really say that I'd draw too many conclusions. A phased system is certainly possible, but I'd still say a clipper like system is *most likely*, but that's lazily leaning on climo. smile.gif

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http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php


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