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> Nov 18-20th, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Short Range 0-3days
PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:03 AM
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Gefs and eps 19th

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 18 2017, 09:04 AM


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Undertakerson
post Nov 10 2017, 08:33 AM
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So, now we have multiple potentials for the week leading in to Thanksgiving. smile.gif

Hopefully, someone with real knowledge can add some detail to your thread Poc. tongue.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:37 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 10 2017, 09:33 AM) *
So, now we have multiple potentials for the week leading in to Thanksgiving. smile.gif

Hopefully, someone with real knowledge can add some detail to your thread Poc. tongue.gif


laugh.gif

Over under on pages for this thread starting at 2

I may take the under


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:41 AM
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It's essentially the same long wave which creates the storm on the 22nd




I don't have the time to trace energies but I'd imagine they are somewhere above the Bering sea

Clapper will come by and circle the little embryos

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 10 2017, 08:44 AM


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Undertakerson
post Nov 10 2017, 08:42 AM
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WPC extended does not quite go out this far, but does offer clues

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1228 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

VALID 12Z MON NOV 13 2017 - 12Z FRI NOV 17 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. PERSISTENT AND STRONG REX BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO
NEW ENGLAND.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR MASSES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES,
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
.

It's the point about the Rex in the Pac, that I remain focused on (see my posts about trepidation of model analysis when a strong Rex is in the Pac - LR Autumn thread)

It is how that Rex breaks down, that will have an obvious ripple effect downstream and to our sensible weather outcome. Right now, it appears to break slowly, allowing the eastern trough within the overall Pacific (upstream) block structure (by this time pd, the block looks more Omega than Rex) that allows the PNA region to see rise. How much it can rise, likely to play a role.

Downstream, the blocking is just then trying to set up (wants to come in stronger for the next thread dates) - but as it (N Atl block) gains connection to whatever PNA ridge develops, it just could be enough to permit a system closer to the east coast (borne from the trough that develops E of the Rockies)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 10 2017, 08:44 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 10 2017, 09:42 AM) *
WPC extended does not quite go out this far, but does offer clues

.

It's the point about the Rex in the Pac, that I remain focused on (see my posts about trepidation of model analysis when a strong Rex is in the Pac - LR Autumn thread)

It is how that Rex breaks down, that will have an obvious ripple effect downstream and to our sensible weather outcome. Right now, it appears to break slowly, allowing the eastern trough within the overall Pacific (upstream) block structure (by this time pd, the block looks more Omega than Rex) that allows the PNA region to see rise. How much it can rise, likely to play a role.

Downstream, the blocking is just then trying to set up (wants to come in stronger for the next thread dates) - but as it (N Atl block) gains connection to whatever PNA ridge develops, it just could be enough to permit a system closer to the east coast (borne from the trough that develops E of the Rockies)


It's an interesting early season pattern


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 10 2017, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 10 2017, 08:33 AM) *
So, now we have multiple potentials for the week leading in to Thanksgiving. smile.gif

Hopefully, someone with real knowledge can add some detail to your thread Poc. tongue.gif


Have no fear MDBR is here.

No idea whats going to happen here laugh.gif because were so far away, but it sure seems after this warm up next week, we could very possibly descend into a lovely cold period before and around turkey day.


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sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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bradjl2009
post Nov 10 2017, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 10 2017, 10:42 AM) *
Have no fear MDBR is here.

No idea whats going to happen here laugh.gif because were so far away, but it sure seems after this warm up next week, we could very possibly descend into a lovely cold period before and around turkey day.

I was watching TWC last night and they showed a graphic of what the euro was painting out temperate wise for Thanksgiving week and it was showing below normal for a good bit of the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes. GFS showed some decent cold that week as well it looked like.
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2017, 08:20 PM
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Transfers here on 18z



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JDClapper
post Nov 10 2017, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 10 2017, 09:41 AM) *
It's essentially the same long wave which creates the storm on the 22nd


I don't have the time to trace energies but I'd imagine they are somewhere above the Bering sea

Clapper will come by and circle the little embryos


As requested laugh.gif

At 18z Saturday, it will be in the circle area. Has quite the track to get to NE.

Attached Image



Will have decent sampling at 0z Thursday (Wednesday Night)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34シ"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7シ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17ス"


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MaineJay
post Nov 11 2017, 07:30 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
Models are coming into better agreement on the timing of the
next large scale trough which moves toward the area this
weekend. This will provide a good chance of more substantial
precipitation mainly on Saturday. Temperatures ahead of the
system are cold enough to make precipitation type interesting,
but whether rain or snow falls will depend on the track of the
low level pressure features which are still not well resolved.
There is a chance that this develops enough of a coastal low to
keep cold air in across the area for accumulating snowfall.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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JDClapper
post Nov 11 2017, 11:18 AM
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24 hour trend on GFS ..

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34シ"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7シ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17ス"


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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2017, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2017, 11:18 AM) *
24 hour trend on GFS ..

Attached Image

Have I mentioned my concern about the cold air chasing the moisture, in many scenarios this cold season (midAtl)?



Attached Image
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telejunkie
post Nov 11 2017, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 11 2017, 11:18 AM) *
24 hour trend on GFS ..

Attached Image

I think Duff would admire such trends...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
展e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Nov 11 2017, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 11 2017, 11:38 AM) *
Have I mentioned my concern about the cold air chasing the moisture, in many scenarios this cold season (midAtl)?

Attached Image

I think if the NA blocking you posted in a the LR thread comes to fruition, I don稚 agree with that. HLB does look to be a very possible factor this winter...and think that could provide more entrenched cold for the region. But as always, blocking can be a fickle beast...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
展e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 11 2017, 01:49 PM
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Navgem at 12z is slightly slower and a bit deeper. Hard to tell it only goes to 180



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PoconoSnow
post Nov 11 2017, 01:50 PM
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Jma



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PoconoSnow
post Nov 11 2017, 01:52 PM
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U.K.



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PoconoSnow
post Nov 11 2017, 02:21 PM
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12z euro transfers late





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PoconoSnow
post Nov 11 2017, 06:04 PM
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18z gfs


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