Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

5 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Nov 18-20th, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Short Range 0-3days
MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 06:35 AM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





dProg/dT last 8 cycles EPS

H5
Attached Image

MSLP
Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php

GYX
QUOTE
A large scale trough continues to be forecast by all the models
to move through the Great Lakes and into New England next
weekend. There continue to be some timing differences, along
with some differences in storm track and availability of cold
air. But the general sense is that precipitation will likely
arrive Friday night or Saturday, beginning as a period of snow
along and ahead of a warm front. Light snow transitions to rain
for much of the area as the warm front lifts northward, with
northern areas staying snow longer. Currently the only model to
predict a more substantial coastal low developing is the CMC.

This would be a colder solution with more snow for the coastal
plain, but it remains the outlier at the moment.


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 12 2017, 06:50 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 09:41 AM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





This looks like it has a decent chance to transfer somewhere off of cape cod





--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 11:43 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 10:41 AM) *
This looks like it has a decent chance to transfer somewhere off of cape cod




Ridge trying to connect and a 50/50 in place. Someone in nothern New England is getting some snow

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 11:44 AM


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 11:53 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





And even if this isn't a conus snow maker these storms dipping just below the border are laying quite a nice snowpacks southern Canada for any future cold to modify as it comes down and to the east.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 11:53 AM


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Nov 12 2017, 11:52 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,874
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 11:43 AM) *


Ridge trying to connect and a 50/50 in place. Someone in nothern New England is getting some snow

Unicorn hunting season comes in early this year?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Nov 12 2017, 11:58 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,874
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





12z UKIE has a Unicorn sighting as well


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 12:10 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 12 2017, 12:58 PM) *
12z UKIE has a Unicorn sighting as well


Attached Image


Darn didn't get my unicorn hunting license this year smile.gif


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 12:19 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





When using the bsr I like to concentrate more on the flow and less on the LPs

To me any south to north flow which is almost vertical or even better yet negative along the east coast catches my interest



Even though there is no monster LP the modulation of the wave is quite evident, and close to a phased solution

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 12:24 PM


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 12:29 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 01:19 PM) *
When using the bsr I like to concentrate more on the flow and less on the LPs

To me any south to north flow which is almost vertical or even better yet negative along the east coast catches my interest



Even though there is no monster LP the modulation of the wave is quite evident, and close to a phased solution



7 days before in east Asia



--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 12:35 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 12:19 PM) *
When using the bsr I like to concentrate more on the flow and less on the LPs

To me any south to north flow which is almost vertical or even better yet negative along the east coast catches my interest

Even though there is no monster LP the modulation of the wave is quite evident, and close to a phased solution



The evolution of the timing/placement of the trof "swinging" positive to negative will be interesting. I imagine both up and down stream will play a role. Active storm track, while looking *mostly* warm, is at least entertaining and a nice way to get into the groove.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 12 2017, 12:36 PM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 12:40 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 12 2017, 01:35 PM) *
The evolution of the timing/placement of the trof "swinging" positive to negative will be interesting. I imagine both up and down stream will play a role. Active storm track, while looking *mostly* warm, is at least entertaining and a nice way to get into the groove.


Indeed


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 01:32 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





12z euro



--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 01:36 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





12z euro




Nothing happening transfer wise, though trod looked deeper than previous. It's just gets to me a real strong storm. Sub 970

Trof deeper stronger earlier flip negative. Stacks storm in canada

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 01:39 PM


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 03:40 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





GYX

QUOTE
The strongest trof of the series will arrive over the weekend.
Low pressure will develop and move NEwd thru the Great Lakes
towards Canada. The downstream pattern is one that could be
favorable for blocking and thus some trends towards cooler
solutions with time. As it is both the 12.12z GEFS and ECMWF EPS
have a very baggy look to the mean SLP...suggesting low
redevelopment or triple point formation near the coast. A fair
number of individual ensemble members develop low pressure
centers near the coast and weaken the primary lows across
Ontario. Given this trend I have blended in some cooler raw
model 2 m temps Sat where cold air damming is a possibility.
This could also bring more wintry precip into play...but
considering this is day 7 and beyond I have not added any more
ptypes beyond rain and snow.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 04:08 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





The baggy look on eps



--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 05:42 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





18z gfs



--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 05:48 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,225
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 05:42 PM) *
18z gfs



Wants to do a little loop in the st Lawrence Valley. laugh.gif


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 05:50 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 12 2017, 06:48 PM) *
Wants to do a little loop in the st Lawrence Valley. laugh.gif


Neat run smile.gif


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 06:02 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





H5


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 06:09 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,526
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





A tiny tastevwhat some blocking can do





--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

5 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
4 User(s) are reading this topic (3 Guests and 1 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th November 2017 - 12:41 AM