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> Nov 18-20th, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Short Range 0-3days
SnowMan11
post Nov 12 2017, 06:43 PM
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Looks like all the models now have a storm before Turkey Day

Right now, it looks warm for our area but we have to see if the models correct the storm to the south with the block in place.


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 06:52 PM
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12z jma was kinda neat





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PoconoSnow
post Nov 12 2017, 07:19 PM
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18z gfs transfer placement is iretty tightly clustered



It's a pretty potent system

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 12 2017, 07:20 PM


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rtcemc
post Nov 12 2017, 07:34 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 12 2017, 12:19 PM) *
When using the bsr I like to concentrate more on the flow and less on the LPs

To me any south to north flow which is almost vertical or even better yet negative along the east coast catches my interest



Even though there is no monster LP the modulation of the wave is quite evident, and close to a phased solution

It is posts like this why I first fell in luv with ya man blink.gif Great stuff!!
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shaulov4
post Nov 12 2017, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Nov 12 2017, 06:43 PM) *
Looks like all the models now have a storm before Turkey Day

Right now, it looks warm for our area but we have to see if the models correct the storm to the south with the block in place.

I suggest looking at the system after this one (21-22), still before thanksgiving.
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 13 2017, 01:19 PM
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Gfs still looking to transfer off the ULL to around the cape



Not enough to get this thread pumping lol


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MaineJay
post Nov 13 2017, 07:42 PM
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UKie pops a couple of coastal lows.

Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php


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risingriver
post Nov 13 2017, 10:04 PM
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Starting the season grasping at straws is not good. sad.gif

Climo says no go for most of the mid-Atlantic.

There will be plenty of chances for good snow this winter. This is not one of them.
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 05:22 AM
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14.0z ECMWF with a very different run. Really shears this system.

Attached Image


Pretty large differences at D5
14.6z GFS

Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=158


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 06:06 AM
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It'll be interesting to see if other models jump onto the sheared/ more progressive ECMWF idea, or if this was an off run.

Plenty of time for this to change, even significantly. And a coastal low is more than possible.


ECMWF with spread

Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 14 2017, 06:07 AM


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 06:32 AM
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Energy for this storm is still spinning west of Vancouver Island, it will take some time before its sampled (day or two).

Attached Image
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480

Chaotic Pacific flow shows little signs of "organizing".

Next 6 days. I would note the ECMWF is attempting to pull the blocking ridge westward towards eastern Siberia...

Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 14 2017, 06:34 AM


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Undertakerson
post Nov 14 2017, 06:40 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 06:32 AM) *
Energy for this storm is still spinning west of Vancouver Island, it will take some time before its sampled (day or two).

Attached Image
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480

Chaotic Pacific flow shows little signs of "organizing".

Next 6 days. I would note the ECMWF is attempting to pull the blocking ridge westward towards eastern Siberia...

Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

Sure doesn't look like a Nina influenced Pineapple Express in the Pac flow.

Which, I still maintain, is due to the Rex Block.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 14 2017, 06:41 AM
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 06:51 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 14 2017, 06:40 AM) *
Sure doesn't look like a Nina influenced Pineapple Express in the Pac flow.

Which, I still maintain, is due to the Rex Block.



Yes, and interestingly, near the end of the ECMWF loop I posted. One can see the possible development of a Kona low NW of Hawaii, providing the south half of a Rex that's west of the current block. Not to mention extreme weather for Hawaii. Wouldn't be surprised to hear about blizzard conditions on the volcanos if it comes to fruition.

If I had time, I'd try to figure out when Kona lows are favored, ENSO wise.


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 14 2017, 09:25 AM
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Nicely covered

Thanks fir keeping this updated and informational smile.gif


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rvincent
post Nov 14 2017, 10:48 AM
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What time will this hit Boston on Saturday I'm going to the BC UConn game and am hoping this will either be just ending at game time or start late enough where it won't effect the game. thank you in advance

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PoconoSnow
post Nov 16 2017, 08:26 AM
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Trend for this the past few runs was warmer along the front. losing flakes not gaining them sad.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 16 2017, 08:27 AM
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there is no real transfer for NNE anymore either since the first storm weakened and sped up too

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 16 2017, 08:28 AM


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LUCC
post Nov 16 2017, 09:26 AM
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Well, looks like this will be showers along a cold front on Sunday, maybe some snows up north. Fine with me as we have a striped bass trip planned Saturday, 55 and partly sunny.


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Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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shaulov4
post Nov 16 2017, 11:41 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Nov 16 2017, 09:26 AM) *
Well, looks like this will be showers along a cold front on Sunday, maybe some snows up north. Fine with me as we have a striped bass trip planned Saturday, 55 and partly sunny.

Quick question where do you fish?
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LUCC
post Nov 16 2017, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 16 2017, 12:41 PM) *
Quick question where do you fish?

Going out of Atlantic Highlands this time with Little Hawk Fishing Charters, will fish around the tip of Sandy Hook, Shrewsbury, Roamers Shoals, armory, etc. I fish a lot out of Belmar on the Last Lady II too.


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Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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