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Personal Statement
“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get,” Both have always and will always be changing.
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
43 years old
SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
[size=1]Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 40.2" [/size]


Previous Storms:

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32993"]Dec 11-12, 2016 [/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32958"]December 6th-8th 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32972"]Dec 4-5, 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32963"]Nov 28-30, 2016[/url]
Joined: 10-August 09
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Local Time: Jan 21 2018, 01:05 PM
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My Content
12 Jan 2018
I know, so many threads... but we have precip going on now. Rain will change to Ice, Sleet and Snow for some..

National Weather Service State College PA
558 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

A slow moving cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania
today. A developing wave of low pressure on the front will track
across southeast Pa late tonight.

Attached Image

NAM3km future radar loop. Now till Saturday 13th evening

27 Dec 2017
A thread for each day this month? What an active month.

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
The short term forecast is complex this morning. We are dealing with
two potential mixed precip events...this morning and again Thursday
morning. A short wave in the Gulf was currently spreading rain
across AL and GA.
Most of the temperatures remained at or above
freezing but the dew points over the north half of GA were mostly
below freezing.

7amEST map.. Cold rain in some areas..

Attached Image

Ice Threat Areas

Attached Image
18 Dec 2017
...............Delete........ there is a thread already. Sorry
3 Dec 2017
Lets dedicate this thread to the strong front coming across which will bring warmth, maybe thunder, strong winds, heavy rains, tanking temps, and backside snows. Figure add Ohio valley into here as well.

From Pittsburgh

The maturing low pressure system digging into the western Great
Lakes will push a cold front through Ohio into our forecast area by
midday Tuesday.

From Taunton:

National Weather Service Taunton MA
117 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Cold front sweeping the region ahead of the main mid-level vortmax
thus obtaining anafrontal characteristics as sub-tropical moisture
ascends back behind the undercutting colder air. Couple of things to

1.) Precipitation onset. Continued low risk of spotty, light showers
towards Tuesday morning at which point sub-freezing air may remain
trapped within sheltered valleys of N MA thus presenting the threat
of freezing rain / drizzle. Ensemble probabilities of 0.01 continue
to signal wet-weather arriving after 12z Tuesday. Dominance of drier
air and subsidence within the mid-levels from the retreating high,
however signals within high-res guidance of weak isentropic upslope
round the high off the warmer, moist NE Atlantic contributing to the
spotty, light showery weather. Prevail with a slight chance for a
brief period of freezing rain over N MA around 12z Tuesday.

2.) Strong to damaging S/SW winds, Tuesday night. Warm air advection
(WAA) in advance brought about by strong SW flow. Leaning with highs
into the 50s, closer shot to 60 early Wednesday before temperatures
drop. Tightening thermal gradient up against colder air surging rear-
ward. Sharpening frontal boundary, thermal wind response, subsequent
H925 jet exceeding 60 mph. Increasing probability per ensemble means
of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph, potentially 50 mph, over S/SE New
England mainly around Wednesday. WAA loft could limit the mixing
threat, potentially a shallow nocturnal inversion with cold frontal
passage progged around 12z Wednesday, the strongest winds occurring
Tuesday night. However gradient wind response can`t be ignored. WIND
ADVISORY headlines could be met with sustained winds in excess of 30
mph alone. Will continue to highlight the threat in the HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK and adjust grids Tuesday night with sustained winds
closer to 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph.

3.) Change over to snow behind the cold front. Noted earlier, a cold
front with anafrontal characteristics with the main mid-level ascent
and associated vortmax rearward. Along 290-300K isentropic surfaces
seeing westward drawback of moisture from an anticyclonic warm-moist
conveyor belt above undercutting colder air. However, a strong dry
punch to the rear and the magnitude of the cold air in tow given now
a daytime passage with partial clearing forecast, change over threat
to snow is subdued along with confidence of any snow accumulations.
Perhaps a few wet snowflakes in the N/W high terrain. Ensemble mean
probabilities have exceptionally dialed back with respect to 1-inch
snowfalls in a 24-hour period, signaling a chance over N/W MA.

It`s going to rain. Widespread with embedded heavier showers, can`t
rule out a rumble of thunder given the moist, theta-E profile from
the sub-tropics, conditionally unstable. Precipitable waters over
1.25 inches, +2 standard deviations. Rainfall amounts around 0.75
inches expected, some locations coming in around an inch, ensemble
means signaling the CT River Valley especially. Quick moving cold
front, less a flood threat, however can`t rule out poor-drainage
issues. Keep a close eye on later forecasts with respect to high-res

HiRes NAM precip total only to Wednesday 1am

Attached Image
14 Nov 2017
Here we go again? Left a " ? " because it looks to be more than a few days.. NAO should be negative compared to previous blast.

Arctic Blast #1 Nov 9-11, 2017

National Weather Service New York NY
106 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017


Ridging returns behind the cold front later Thu with dry and
seasonable weather through Fri. This is where the forecast
starts to become uncertain, although the GFS is typically faster
to shift the ridge axis east. Thus, have sided with the slower
EC and have delayed onset of pcpn to late Fri Night/Sat morning.

The GFS is also more amplified as a piece of the polar vortex
in northern Canada breaks off with a cutoff low developing over
SE Canada over the weekend

At any rate, both are in agreement
that the energy from the aforementioned trough moving onshore
out west merges with that dropping down from Canada, but timing
is off. There is about a 24 hr difference of this occurring between
the EC and GFS. It does appear that part of the weekend will be
wet (and perhaps some snow inland) and then blustery behind the
system into early next week, but way too early for specifics.


Attached Image

Euro12z Monday 20th 850mb Temp Anomaly

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Wednesday 22nd

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