Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

16 Pages V  « < 14 15 16  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Arctic Sea Ice, What will happen this summer?
ohioktm250
post Jan 10 2017, 05:01 PM
Post #301




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 12
Joined: 21-August 14
From: Troy, OH
Member No.: 29,878





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 10 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Chart of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent


ArctischePinguin

Longer term view


NSIDC


Why pick one year? That is literally his argument - that data is cherry picked or covers an insufficient time period.

He's not wrong, just off a few years. From 2012 to 2014 there was record ice extent in Antarctica.

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarc...-record-maximum

I like to stay out of the debate as well, but his questions are all things I have pondered.

This post has been edited by ohioktm250: Jan 10 2017, 05:02 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 20 2017, 11:51 PM
Post #302




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Man some really crazy stuff still going on in the Northern hemisphere ice front. Looks like most of the action is seeing whether the U.S. will see cold/big storm. rolleyes.gif
Attached File  n_conc.png ( 59.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


Concentrations dont tell the whole story we are seeing continual storm intrusion into the arctic circle from the midlatitude regions. As they keep flowing into the arctic they are pumping up with it warm, moist air above the sea surface which is helping reduce ice on the Atlantic front and whatever tries to form just continually gets melted over again. Looking at the SST's we see a large portion of the Atlantic side having extremely above average temps.

Current SSTs:
Attached File  arcticsstnowcast.gif ( 84.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


Current Ice thickness:
Attached File  arcticictnowcast.gif ( 61.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


Unfortunately I am not able to post this gif for the whole year but here is the URL (might update daily)
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/na...st_anim365d.gif


Ill post in another post the SST anoms around the globe. But please do not let these graphs misguide what is actually happening thickness is down well below where it needs to be this time of year and thickness is in dire straights.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 20 2017, 11:51 PM
Post #303




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Attached File  sst.daily.anom.gif ( 101.21K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Mar 20 2017, 05:24 AM
Post #304




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,543
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Welcome to melt season.

Let's start with volume. PIOMASS figures are at the lowest in the data set

Total volume
Attached File  BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY__1_.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 1



Average thickness, if extent was anomaly high, this could be explained by lots of peripheral sea ice.
Attached File  Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png ( 226.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/pro...volume-anomaly/

But sea ice extent is actually lowest on record.
Attached File  N_iqr_timeseries.png ( 114.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Looking at the distribution, the very little ice greater than 2.5m thick.
Attached File  arcticictnnowcast.gif ( 65.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


And, whatt thick ice there is, is either in the Canadian archipelago, or heading out the Fram Strait, and doomed at this point.
Attached File  ezgif_3_c5a2a2c807.gif ( 839.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hudson Bay doesn't look particularly thick either.

Despite a cold winter in Siberia, the ice situation on the Russian side is less than great, and while it's still well below freezing, anomalies in the region are progged to be fairly high.

Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_1.png ( 180.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png ( 174.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Weather will have time be quite cold, calm, and cloudy this summer to prevent a significant jerky seating in my humble opinion.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 20 2017, 05:25 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 01:42 PM
Post #305




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 20 2017, 06:24 AM) *
Welcome to melt season.

Let's start with volume. PIOMASS figures are at the lowest in the data set

Total volume
Attached File  BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY__1_.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 1

Average thickness, if extent was anomaly high, this could be explained by lots of peripheral sea ice.
Attached File  Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png ( 226.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/pro...volume-anomaly/

But sea ice extent is actually lowest on record.
Attached File  N_iqr_timeseries.png ( 114.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Looking at the distribution, the very little ice greater than 2.5m thick.
Attached File  arcticictnnowcast.gif ( 65.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


And, whatt thick ice there is, is either in the Canadian archipelago, or heading out the Fram Strait, and doomed at this point.
Attached File  ezgif_3_c5a2a2c807.gif ( 839.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hudson Bay doesn't look particularly thick either.

Despite a cold winter in Siberia, the ice situation on the Russian side is less than great, and while it's still well below freezing, anomalies in the region are progged to be fairly high.

Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_1.png ( 180.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png ( 174.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Weather will have time be quite cold, calm, and cloudy this summer to prevent a significant jerky seating in my humble opinion.


Not looking good best thing that the arctic can look to is as you said cloudy and cool conditions as we head into the summer time to help slow the rate of melting. What worries me the most and has been consistent is the periphery regions of the ice have been getting hit hard over the past couple years and this looks to continue. This year has been exceptionally hard on core ice from about 80N and have hurt a lot of the of ice pack. Transport has been at or slightly above average out of the Fram strait this year but what has been more noticeable is that the Multi-year ice has been scooting out. This has been the result of a consistent barrage of of storms from the Atlantic side shifting the ice out.

It worries me for sure as we go into the melt season and regrowth in september/october. Another thing that has been consistently happening is when we get into refreeze we rapidly freeze up the ice and then it seems the cold gets displaced over to siberia every time we start to refreeze. Maybe this is the pattern we see with less sea ice, 2 SDs+ below average.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 20 2017, 01:43 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 10 2017, 02:47 PM
Post #306




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Well after the lowest recorded volume on record earlier this year the Arctic has been experiencing relatively average to slightly below average conditions. The temps this year have been on the cool side for most of the polar region (CAB), but models have been picking up on the idea of the Pacific side really taking a hit as we progress through july. It is always hard for predictions to actually occur in the models since well we have seen it just as much with much waffling they tend to do. Currently if my eyes do not deceive me we are currently sitting 5th lowest on record for sea ice with the CAB at this point holding fairly decently.

Attached File  Arctic_AMSR2_nic_small.jpg ( 100.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d1.gif ( 703K ) Number of downloads: 0


While greenland has had fairly low melt numbers as well mainly on the eastern side, western regions have taken a bit of a hit and a big reason we saw large spikes in the numbers.

Attached File  greenland_daily_melt_plot_tmb.png ( 38.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


We are still in about a 2 month period of melt to continue in these regions will show another update in august to see where we are at after possibly a big melt in july for the pacific side of the ice. Amazingly the Atlantic side has sustained rather well after being in some of the worst conditions besides the chucki (SP?) area this past winter. Im sure many saw the Atlantic portion of the CAB got bombarded with storms moisture and warm temps.

One more to throw in there.

Attached File  ice.arc.1.png ( 25.68K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

16 Pages V  « < 14 15 16
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd August 2017 - 11:40 PM