Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

770 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(BrenK10 @ Jun 24 2017, 11:20 AM) *
The lake/pond across touchdown Jesus wasn't as high as last weekend when I drove past this morning. The water was barely touching the chairs and grill. Suprirsed it's not higher after y'day.

Forgot to look this morning. Strange it's not that high though.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231058 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 24 2017, 07:26 AM) *
ECMWF plumes, quite the spread. Neutral-warm still favored.
[attachment=326652:ps2png_a...5_URN3Ot.png]

What a headache
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231057 · Replies: · Views: 25,452

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 08:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 23 2017, 09:33 PM) *
Not at all in the wake of a tropical system.

Yeah, we don't get those very often in the Midwest laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230998 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 08:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Well, I'd say the moisture has been squeezed out. Upper levels drying out already.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230992 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 08:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Interesting how there were 2 'flows' of severe weather today. SW-NE flow, associated with the former tropical depression... and NW-SE flow, associated with an approaching cold front. This area was able to get strongly to extremely unstable because tropical moisture from the depression was present, but it was behind it so there was sunshine and steeper lapse rates.



Looking at the 500mb heights map, you can see the trough from the remnant tropical cyclone with some stronger winds aloft in the warm sector. Additionally, you can see a hint of a shortwave trough at 500mb back in the Plains; a true northwest flow event.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230990 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 04:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Funny. 2"+ of rain today followed by 5 straight days of sun. Kinda unusual.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230970 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 04:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Flash flood emergency for west-central PA

QUOTE
Flash Flood Warning
PAC063-240200-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0032.170623T2004Z-170624T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
404 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ARMSTRONG...BRUSH VALLEY...CENTER...AND
WHITE TOWNSHIPS...

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 6 inches of rain have
fallen in the last 24 hours. Flash flooding is expected to occur.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Armstrong, Brush Valley,
Center, and White Townships. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Indiana, Homer City, Chevy Chase Heights, Lucerne Mines,
Jacksonville, Brush Vly and Yellow Creek State Park.

Additional rainfall amounts of two inches are possible in the warned
area through midnight.

Please report flooding by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230968 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 04:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 23 2017, 04:38 PM) *
Ohhhh now that would be a fun event you never know what may happen but was seeing a pattern with a Ridge building into the center of the country for a bit, but with what looks like the ridge not really budging all too much in the southwest may have revise that idea. Many models, even euro, brought in the idea of taking down the ridge a notch out there but it seems that may not be the case as systems have not had quite the digging power into the west lately.

Don't think it's a coincidence that this is happening and the SOI has not been positive since the last day of May
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230960 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 04:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


2"+ of rain today, then sunny for the next 5 days. laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230959 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 03:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 23 2017, 04:15 PM) *
The pattern setting will be ripe for systems to swing over the ridge to cause stuff like this but to really go all out and say it is just like then well that deserves rolleyes.gif lol

I'm liking the chances of a nice uptick in severe weather around this part of the country as we move into July usually our peak month.

If a forecast pattern looks similar to something we've seen before, like June 29, then I wouldn't be opposed to stating that we could see a big event. But the problem I had with this is that he cherrypicked an outlier model run that's 240 hours out.

Here's what Euro has now for that day. This is only 24 hours after he made that Tweet.


GFS looks even worse
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230954 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 03:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 23 2017, 04:00 PM) *
This reminds of a rainy fall day minus the temps. Haven't had any thunder or lightning, just steady rain.

On one hand, I'm surprised we don't have any thunder/lightning. On the other, the freezing level is abnormally high. The highest freezing level on record on this date is 15700 feet... we're at 15100 today.

You can bet if we had 1100 CAPE in the fall we'd have thunder.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230947 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 03:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Cincinnati is experiencing some intense training...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230946 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 23 2017, 01:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


In a dry slot right now but it's about to start pouring
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230927 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 10:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Wow. Obviously the axis of heaviest rain will be hard to nail almost until it happens... but certainly does look like significant flash flooding may occur somewhere in SW OH. That's 3.3" through Hamilton county with more on the way.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230888 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 10:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


I noticed on my way to work today that the lake across from Touchdown Jesus has lowered. Table and chairs are no longer sitting in water. That's not gonna last long.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230886 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 09:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Looks like Cindy spawned a strong tornado earlier. EF2 confirmed.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/t...acts-gulf-coast
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230881 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 08:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 22 2017, 03:25 PM) *
Second image is the H5 on that day
[attachment=326625:666.jpg]
[attachment=326626:eta500_v...12062908.gif]

rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230880 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 09:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


We're now in a moderate risk for flash flooding tomorrow. Wunderground app has Mason getting 2.17" tomorrow
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230856 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 11:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


GFS has western Kansas getting up to 100 degrees by 18z (1PM local time), and 106 at 7PM

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230837 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 11:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


12z NAM


18z NAM


00z NAM


Last 2 runs definitely picking up on some banding/training north of the river. Cincy gets slammed.

GFS doesn't have that training but I still wouldn't rule it out, especially since NAM is a mesoscale model

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230834 · Replies: · Views: 1,500

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 10:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Funny to read about a strong shear/low CAPE severe weather environment... along the Gulf Coast.

Impressive Tropical Cyclone-esque tornado environment sampled with the 00z soundings. 2.5" PWATs



New Orleans appeared to be in a relative dry slot aloft... only 100% saturated a little past 6km AGL
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230833 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 09:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(grace @ Jun 21 2017, 09:28 PM) *
Way to early, but my gut says this winter has some at least average potential. It's my "gut"...so, ya know smile.gif

Maybe. The one thing the models are consistent on is the weak +PDO (CFS) or -PDO (JAMSTEC). Not much help from that other than allowing for the PNA to be less positive which could allow for some western troughs that could end up producing massive winter storms in the east.

I'm banking on a neutral ENSO with the PDO to be determined.

JAMSTEC has a definitive -PDO with a weak Nino, which could make an interesting and unique winter. The -PDO/weak Nino combo would create a raging STJ which truly could make or break the winter. ENSO and AO/NAO would become very important.

CFS has cold-neutral ENSO with a neutral or slightly positive PDO.

So both of those models have mixed ENSO/PDO signals (in other words, ENSO doesn't match with the expected PDO phase)... so this could be an interesting winter, weather-wise.

This winter could be riddled with severe storms, too. Neutral ENSOs have been shown to be correlated with the most active tornadic winters, and with -PDO being strongly correlated with -PNA, one can deduce a -PDO would not hurt the tornado count.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/cook/enso-mwr.pdf
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230829 · Replies: · Views: 15,019

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 08:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Didn't expect this. I'm between Kettering and Centerville.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230825 · Replies: · Views: 547

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 04:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Almost as many hooks as 4/27
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230816 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 11:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,043
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(grace @ Jun 20 2017, 05:29 PM) *
CFS ENSO trending cooler & cooler

At -0.5C by January laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230771 · Replies: · Views: 25,452

770 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th June 2017 - 05:18 PM