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> Dec 4-6 Northeast/MidAtlantic Storm, Cogitation:Long Range (8-15 Days Out) Forecasts
shaulov4
post Nov 24 2015, 12:15 PM
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With December inching closer we are staring to see the active pattern that most expected to see in the forecast models. The GFS has been consistent with a low developing near the coast of NC and either riding up the coast or sliding to the east. The latest run shows the low getting pushed east, but does show Washington D.C getting its first snow. Although the teleconnections are not favorable for this setup, stranger things have happened so with that I will open this thread.



This post has been edited by shaulov4: Nov 24 2015, 12:16 PM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 24 2015, 04:01 PM
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I was going to put up a large post, replete with various Op and Ensemble images from the big4 - and with allusions to the BSR, TR, ENSO, NAO, PNA, AO, Blocking charts and of course, the all trumping FMTR.

I think I'll give it until Friday or so to start with all of that. It would take so long to create said post, that it would take until Friday to fully explain it anyway... tongue.gif

Let's leave it at - this time period has had my attention moreso than the two preceding events (this weekend and early next week).

What I expect, in a nutshell, is a sizeable system that brings a mixed bag to all but inland locations - with the MidAtl, currently, in the favored zone for precip. Not that the NE won't see anything, but the extent of the northern periphery is maybe the biggest ? I have at present.

To me, this one comes down to whether any kind of brakes can be applied (right now, looks like NO - but I'm watching what looks to be an Omega Block scheme in the Pacific that just might be able to teleconnect to blocking over the NAO region.

Of course, the huge question of the FMTR still holding up this winter may be answered as well. tongue.gif
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WeatherMonger
post Nov 24 2015, 04:23 PM
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CPC outlook


QUOTE
For Wednesday December 02 - Tuesday December 08: The rex block over the western CONUS during Week-1 is forecast to break down before the start of the period, and above-normal heights are forecast to be centered over south-central Canada. The upper-level low and associated surface low mentioned in Week-1 could impact the Northeast early in the period.

The mean storm track during the period is forecast to extend from the far southern CONUS to the eastern seaboard, and so a significant storm system could impact parts of the eastern CONUS during the period, potentially bringing the first substantial round of wintry weather to parts of the Appalachians and interior Northeast
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Winter lover
post Nov 24 2015, 04:27 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Nov 24 2015, 04:23 PM) *



what are the chances for snow/mix in northwest Connecticut and could you give me a link for the gfs model predictions
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Undertakerson
post Nov 24 2015, 04:34 PM
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Just to put it out there. I posed this question in the BSR/TR/RRW page, three days ago. I was trying to sniff this time period out, a bit....

QUOTE
OK guys, so help me out here... do these two images correlate? (top image 12zGFS 11/18 - bottom image 06zGFS 11/21)



Attached Image



Attached Image


Hmmm - so did the BSR sniff this out? Well, JD replied with...

QUOTE
The 06z shows a little progressive bias there.


Link to BSR/TR/RRW thread

This illustrates more than just my interest in the BSR and goes somewhat to what I was watching in blocking trends. But it is so much more than just those couple things.

Later, I'll try to get a more coherent post together.
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Winter lover
post Nov 24 2015, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 24 2015, 04:34 PM) *
Just to put it out there. I posed this question in the BSR/TR/RRW page, three days ago. I was trying to sniff this time period out, a bit....

Attached Image



Attached Image


Hmmm - so did the BSR sniff this out? Well, JD replied with...
Link to BSR/TR/RRW thread

This illustrates more than just my interest in the BSR and goes somewhat to what I was watching in blocking trends. But it is so much more than just those couple things.

Later, I'll try to get a more coherent post together.



is this showing back-end snows for Connecticut or do you think itll be too warm for snow at all???
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Undertakerson
post Nov 24 2015, 06:05 PM
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As I mentioned on my weather FB page, timing is going to be hard to sort out, but the idea is there. Interestingly, the 18z pulls this off W/O any help from the northern jet - but the storm is then left to attack a cold s/e Canada HP.

Attached Image
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Blizz
post Nov 24 2015, 06:27 PM
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18z GFS



--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 55.3"
Winter Storm Warnings: 3
Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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Winter lover
post Nov 24 2015, 06:53 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Nov 24 2015, 06:27 PM) *
18z GFS




what are the chances of this happening???
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Blizz
post Nov 24 2015, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Nov 24 2015, 06:53 PM) *
what are the chances of this happening???


The overall setup is pretty poor, it will be a marginal event at best... but something to monitor.


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 55.3"
Winter Storm Warnings: 3
Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 24 2015, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Nov 24 2015, 06:53 PM) *
what are the chances of this happening???

With this potential being what 11 days or so away, it's anyone's guess at this point.

Various models often have a hard enough time with an event a day or 2 away, let alone almost 2 weeks away.

At this juncture I would say just know the potential exist (at least for right now) that is.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 24 2015, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Nov 24 2015, 06:53 PM) *
what are the chances of this happening???


Based on current setup is say this trends warmer, or possibly disappears. Just so far out....


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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shane o mac
post Nov 24 2015, 08:54 PM
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Not really looking into details on tracks , its like 10 days away but it got my attention to at least "monitor" this potential ! been boring lately need something to spark me up been depressed the past few months . :(Nice to see everybody together again for another fun year !
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Nov 24 2015, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Nov 24 2015, 06:56 PM) *
The overall setup is pretty poor, it will be a marginal event at best... but something to monitor.


Good to see you again a Blizz! I agree with you 100% on this. No real high pressure up north feeding in the cold. Definitely some good eye candy for now but certainly exciting considering it's the first real wintry event this season. Excited for a new season of highs and most certainly lows, lol. Enjoy
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shaulov4
post Nov 24 2015, 10:43 PM
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GFS is rolling......feels good to say that again laugh.gif
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SnowMan11
post Nov 24 2015, 11:07 PM
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It's a thread the needle event but Dec 5 has been a magical date for many lol


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Anthony
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 24 2015, 11:54 PM
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Cold HP slides off to the east on 00z GFS.
A piece of the previous ULL gets left behind and is captured in the northern flow. This seems to help heights rise over SE Canada and leads to an overall warmer solution along with a more organized neutral trough. That being said there seems to be NO Shortage of energy in this time period. So many details to work out. It is nice to have something to track though. smile.gif




Hr252 surface reflection


This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 25 2015, 12:19 AM


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Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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shaulov4
post Nov 25 2015, 12:00 AM
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....well that escalated quickly
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Juniorrr
post Nov 25 2015, 12:14 AM
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Last image of Canadian...
Would have liked to see the next frame lol, too bad tongue.gif
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Nov 25 2015, 12:47 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Nov 25 2015, 12:14 AM) *
Last image of Canadian...
Would have liked to see the next frame lol, too bad tongue.gif

Does look nice....but they all do 10 days out;) .. but still nice considering it's the first one wink.gif

This post has been edited by BLIZZARD_OF_79: Nov 25 2015, 12:48 AM


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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