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> Jan 5-6 MIDatl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Final forecast and Observations
MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 5 2017, 11:15 AM
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Opened.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:17 AM
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Present and accounted for.
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phillyPete
post Jan 5 2017, 11:18 AM
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WWA just hit for my area..
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...33#.WG5xQfkrL4Y

CODE
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1113 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-060415-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.170106T0100Z-170106T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...
OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1113 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE,
  SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
  8 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY AND
  MODERATE AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY
  END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT WITH ROADS BECOMING
  SNOW COVERED. UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY STILL BE
  SLIPPERY HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE EVEN AFTER THE
  SNOW ENDS.

* TEMPERATURES...STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$
KLEIN


This post has been edited by phillyPete: Jan 5 2017, 11:18 AM
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NorEaster07
post Jan 5 2017, 11:18 AM
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Synopsis:

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

Low pressure will develop off the Carolina Coast toward early
this evening, then track northeastward and remain offshore tonight
into early Friday. A second low will then develop in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, taking a similar track into the Atlantic on
Saturday. Strong high pressure builds in for Monday before low
pressure in the Central Plains moves into Southeastern Canada,
pulling a cold front across our area later Wednesday





Here are the storm tracks. Color Coordinated.. Source:


1st wave (this thread) In Red: 7pm tonight the low will form off the Carolinas and head up the coast. Close enough to bring light 1-3" snows around.

2nd wave: In Blue: Storm forming in Gulf today and will head up the coast. Close enough for Carolina but too far for Northeast.....or is it. This will be updated tonight with a possible more west shift.

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jan 5 2017, 11:29 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 5 2017, 11:19 AM
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--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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LUCC
post Jan 5 2017, 11:24 AM
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In on this thread too.

Expecting a 2hr delay or snow day tomorrow for kids, with temps and 4" of snow the roads are sure to be bad. If snow still failing at 10am schools will be canceled.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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stretchct
post Jan 5 2017, 11:28 AM
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I advised the youngster to tell his friends not to expect more than a delay. Timing looks to be a little early even for that. But they call for delays sometimes for wind and cold temps, so who knows.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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phillyPete
post Jan 5 2017, 11:29 AM
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Looks like Mt Holly bumped up totals a tad too?

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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:30 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 5 2017, 11:19 AM) *

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Using the HRRR? (In Evil voice) Good, good - let the dark side flow through you (bahahahahaha)
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 5 2017, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2017, 11:30 AM) *
Using the HRRR? (In Evil voice) Good, good - let the dark side flow through you (bahahahahaha)


laugh.gif You've drawn me in this morning.

With so much "digital snow" this winter I'm skeptical, but it has been ok IMBY the last few events.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jan 5 2017, 11:34 AM


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:36 AM
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Honestly had not noticed the a.m. CTP snowmap

Yesterday this showed <1"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:42 AM
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Nator is out and looking pretty good for this one. Waiting on precip and H5 maps to confirm.
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MDSnowKing
post Jan 5 2017, 11:44 AM
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This is the map i believe the most.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=427
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:49 AM
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Nator is roughly the same for this event, if I'm seeing it right.

It is n/w for next one (by a small bit)
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(MDSnowKing @ Jan 5 2017, 11:44 AM) *

Let me guess - because it shows the most snow IYBY, right?
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LUCC
post Jan 5 2017, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2017, 11:51 AM) *
Let me guess - because it shows the most snow IYBY, right?

I like it too! ph34r.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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mtksurfer
post Jan 5 2017, 11:54 AM
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probably about right for our neck of the woods

This post has been edited by mtksurfer: Jan 5 2017, 11:56 AM
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--------------------
“All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea - whether it is to sail or to watch it - we are going back from whence we came.”

- John F. Kennedy
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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2017, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jan 5 2017, 11:52 AM) *
I like it too! ph34r.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Fair enough

I think 4K is probably closer but...
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MDSnowKing
post Jan 5 2017, 11:55 AM
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You can see the clouds filling in nicely in Eastern WV. It won't be long before the flakes start flying!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/sat_24.gif

This post has been edited by MDSnowKing: Jan 5 2017, 11:56 AM
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MDSnowKing
post Jan 5 2017, 11:59 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2017, 11:51 AM) *
Let me guess - because it shows the most snow IYBY, right?

It depicts what I believe will happen in MD most accurately.
I'm not PASnowKing. wink.gif tongue.gif laugh.gif

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